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Political Science journal predicts the outcome of the French presidential election
The article 'Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election' from Martial Foucault and Richard Nadeau of the University of Montreal makes the bold prediction that Sarkozy will lose the May election by a small margin.
Foucault and Nadeau have adopted the French tradition of forecasting electoral results from political-economy models. Examining both local and national voting patterns in every election from 1981 to 2007 and using models that include economic factors (such as unemployment) as well as other political variables. They predict Sarkozy's defeat in the second round.
The four-part article reviews the literature on French forecasting models, outlines the main features of the French electoral system, introduces Foucault and Nadeau's model and the data examined and finally, discusses the predictions derived from this model, including their forecast for the 2012 election.
Noting that forecasting models in France have previously accurately predicted the victories of Jacques Chirac in 1995 and François Mitterrand in 1981 and 1988, Foucault and Nadeau conclude that: "the prediction that the next president of France will be a Socialist seems to rest on solid grounds, politically and statistically."
Published by Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association, PS: Political Science and Politics is hosted on cutting-edge digital platform, Cambridge Journals Online.
The first round of the 2012 French presidential election will take place on 22 April 2012, with a second round run-off, if necessary, being held on 6 May.
Thursday, 19 April 2012
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