Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.
• Draws on the authors' first-hand expert experience of recent hazard events, providing cutting-edge, topical information • Reduces ambiguity by employing a clearly defined and controlled vocabulary, applicable for widespread use across all hazard types • Explores the wider societal implications of natural hazard risk management, providing important context for the complexities of hazard interventions
Contents
List of contributors; Preface; 1. Risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards L. J. Hill, R. S. J. Sparks and J. C. Rougier; 2. Quantifying natural hazard risk J. C. Rougier; 3. Model limitations: the sources and implications of epistemic uncertainty J. C. Rougier and K. J. Beven; 4. Expert elicitation and judgment W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke; 5. Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor; 6. Hydrometeorological hazards under future climate change T. L. Edwards and P. G. Challenor; 7. Hydrological flood uncertainty and risk research J. Freer, K. J. Beven, J. Neal, G. Schumann, J. Hall and P. Bates; 8. Uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment W. P. Aspinall; 9. Landslide and avalanche hazards T. K. Hincks, W. P. Aspinall, R. S. J. Sparks, E. A. Holcombe and M. Kern; 10. Tsunami hazard and risk T. K. Hincks, R. S. J. Sparks and W. P. Aspinall; 11. Risk and uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, H. S. Crosweller and T. K. Hincks; 12. Risk assessment and management of wildfires T. K. Hincks, B. D. Malamud, R. S. J. Sparks, M. J. Wooster and T. J. Lynham; 13. Technological facilities, infrastructure and hazardous materials, including some notes on space weather R. S. J. Sparks, W. P. Aspinall, N. A. Chapman, B. E. Hill, D. J. Kerridge, J. Pooley and C. A. Taylor; 14. Statistical aspects of risk characterization in ecotoxicology G. L. Hickey and A. Hart; 15. Social science perspectives on natural hazards risk and uncertainty S. Cornell and M. Jackson; 16. Human responses to natural hazard risk: considerations for improving the effectiveness of risk management systems H. S. Crosweller and J. Wilmshurst; Index.
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