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Economic Liberalism and Its Rivals

Details

  • Page extent: 366 pages
  • Size: 234 x 156 mm
  • Weight: 0.65 kg

Library of Congress

  • Dewey number: 337.47
  • Dewey version: 22
  • LC Classification: HF1557 .D37 2009
  • LC Subject headings:
    • Former Soviet republics--Foreign economic relations
    • Former Soviet republics--Economic policy
    • Liberalism--Former Soviet republics

Library of Congress Record

Hardback

 (ISBN-13: 9780521866538)

Economic Liberalism and Its Rivals
Cambridge University Press
9780521866538 - Economic Liberalism and Its Rivals - The Formation of International Institutions among the Post-Soviet States - By KEITH A. DARDEN
Frontmatter/Prelims

Economic Liberalism and Its Rivals: The Formation of International Institutions among the Post-Soviet States

This book examines the critical role that the economic ideas of state leaders play in the creation and maintenance of the international economic order. Drawing on a detailed study of the 15 post-Soviet states in their first decade of independence, interviews with key decision makers, and the use of closed ministerial archives, the book explores how the changing ideas of state officials led countries to follow one of three institutional paths: rapid entry into the World Trade Organization, participation in a regional Customs Union based on their prior Soviet ties, or autarky and economic closure. In doing so, the book traces the decisions that shaped the entry of these strategically important countries into the world economy and provides a novel theory of the role of ideas in international politics. As a dynamic study of ideas and institutions based on a relatively large number of countries in a period of crisis, this book is the first of its kind.

Keith A. Darden is Associate Professor of Political Science, Director of the Yale Central Asia Initiative, and recipient of the Lex Hixon ’63 Prize for Teaching Excellence in the Social Sciences at Yale University. His extensive fieldwork has carried him to Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, the states of Central Asia, and the Caucasus. After receiving his Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, and prior to taking his appointment at Yale, Professor Darden was an Academy Scholar at Harvard University and a visiting Fellow at the Davis Center for Russian Studies. Professor Darden's work has been published in World Politics, Politics and Society, the Journal of Common Market Studies, and other journals.


Economic Liberalism and Its Rivals

The Formation of International Institutions among the Post-Soviet States

KEITH A. DARDEN

Yale University


CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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Cambridge University Press
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Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521866538

© Keith A. Darden 2009

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2009

Printed in the United States of America

A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication DataDarden, Keith A., 1970–Economic liberalism and its rivals : the formation of international institutions among thepost-Soviet states / Keith A. Darden.p. cm.Includes bibliographical references and index.ISBN 978-0-521-86653-8 (hardback)1. Former Soviet republics – Foreign economic relations. 2. Former Soviet republics –Economic policy. 3. Liberalism – Former Soviet republics. I.Title.HF1557.D37 2008337.47 – dc22 2007033518

ISBN 978-0-521-86653-8 hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Information regarding prices, travel timetables, and other factual information given in this work are correct at the time of first printing, but Cambridge University Press does not guarantee the accuracy of such information thereafter.


Contents

List of Figures and Tables
vii
Acknowledgments
ix
PART ONE:     THEORY AND METHODOLOGY
1             A Natural Experiment
3
2             A Theory of International Order
23
3             Three International Trajectories
51
4             Liberalism and Its Rivals: History, Typology, and Measurement
84
PART TWO:     CONTINGENT SELECTION AND SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS: COUNTRY-LEVEL ANALYSES OF ELITE SELECTION, IDEATIONAL CHANGE, AND INSTITUTIONAL CHOICE, 1991–2000
5             The Baltic States and Moldova
125
6             Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine
150
7             The Caucasus
184
8             Central Asia
200
PART THREE:   COMPARING CASES
9             Alternative Explanations and Statistical Tests
231
10            Smoking Guns: A Causal History of Institutional Choice
261
11            Conclusions and Implications of the Analysis
306
Appendix A:   Measurement and Coding of Economic Ideas – Additional Tests
317
Appendix B:   Interviews Conducted by the Author
321
Bibliography
329
Index
345

Figures and Tables

FIGURES

1.1           International Economic Institutions of the Post-Soviet States
5
1.2           The Logic of the Argument and the Data Sources Used
20
2.1           Alternative Views of the Role of Causal Ideas
36
2.2           Whose Ideas Matter – Variation Across Polity Types
47
10.1          Shifts in Economic Ideas, 1991–1998
296
10.2          Number of WTO Accession Events, 1993–1998
296

TABLES

2.1           Ranked Order of Preferences over Institutional Arrangements for Limiting Automobile Casualty Rates
38
2.2           Ranked Order of Preferences over Preventing/Managing International Economic Crises
39
3.1           Progress toward WTO Membership, 1993–2001
55
3.2           Annual Count of WTO Accession-Related Events, 1992–2000
56
3.3           Sample Changes in the Belarussian Import Tariff
68
3.4           Correlations among Tariff Schedules (1997)
71
3.5           The Most Significant Regional Economic Institutions, 1991–2000
77
3.6           Regional Economic Institutional Membership by Country, 1992–2000
77
3.7           CIS Economic Agreements Requiring Parliamentary Action
80
3.8           Periods of Autarky, 1991–2000
82
4.1           Differences between Liberalism and Integralism
87
4.2           Content Coding Scheme
111
4.3           Additional Observable Implications of Economic Ideas
116
6.1           Similarity of Belarus and Ukraine on Key Variables
151
9.1           Potential Security Threats Faced by Post-Soviet States
240
9.2           Oil and Gas Trading among Post-Soviet States
242
9.3           CISratify: GLS Random Effects Estimation (integgov)
254
9.4           CISratify: GLS Random Effects Estimation (libgov)
255
9.5           Poisson Regression on WTO2
258
9.6           Poisson Regression on WTO2
259
10.1          Economic Ideas and Departure from the Ruble Zone
267
10.2          Economic Ideas and Variation in Support for the Treaty on Economic Union
272
10.3          Economic Ideas and Variation in Support for the Interstate Economic Commission
273
10.4          Economic Ideas and Customs Union Membership, 1995
278
10.5          Economic Ideas and Trade Institutions, 1996
297
10.6          Economic Ideas and Institutional Membership, 2000
305
A.1           Weights Accorded to Economic Statements by Officials Based upon Rank
318
A.2           Correlations between Ideas Indicators (fbis and gov)
319

Acknowledgments

Some projects have a way of holding on longer than others, and this book has managed to keep me in its grasp for some time now. In the process, however, it has had the benefit of many great minds and repeated acts of genuine kindness. I can only briefly acknowledge some of those contributions here.

The project began at the University of California at Berkeley and was shaped by the committee that advised the original dissertation. The ideas grew out of an intellectual friendship with my chair, Ernie Haas, whose generosity of time and spirit has left its mark on this work as well as all of my others. George Breslauer not only imparted to me the knowledge of Russia and the Soviet Union that I lacked when this project was in its infancy, but his sage advice shepherded me through the many struggles that I encountered during the writing and rewriting of the book. Steve Weber has never been shy about forcing me to ground theory in fact, and he gave me the courage to abandon many of my original formulations when research revealed other processes to be at work. The book could not have been completed without his many years of friendship and support. Victoria Bonnell gave generously of her time and advice and cautioned me wisely against a larger project that surely would have overwhelmed me.

The manuscript was rewritten entirely after my arrival at Yale University and benefited tremendously from my colleagues there and at Harvard. In my first years at Yale, I had the luxury of the constant advice and companionship of an exceptional cohort of colleagues. Two great scholars of post-Communism, Anna Grzymala-Busse and Pauline Jones Luong, both gave their insight to the manuscript. Anna, in particular, read every word, fixed many errors, told me what was good (and what wasn’t), and hefted me across the finish line when times got tough. Don Green, David Mayhew, Victoria Murillo, Bruce Russett, Nicholas Sambanis, Ken Scheve, and Jim Vreeland all gave freely of their time and advice on chapters of the manuscript. Ken directed my reading in the quantitative methods needed to complete Chapter 9 and brought his clarity of mind to the theoretical side of the project. Jeffrey Sandberg and Victoria Frolova provided me with excellent research assistance.

The work was also shaped substantially by time at Harvard University, both as a visitor at the Davis Center for Russian Studies during the writing of the dissertation and as a postdoctoral scholar at the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies. Tim Colton showed great kindness in welcoming me as a graduate student to participate in the intellectual life of the Davis Center, and the book has benefited greatly from the community of scholars that I discovered in Cambridge. I would particularly like to thank Rawi Abdelal, Grzegorz Ekiert, Henry Hale, Steve Hanson, Yoshiko Herrera, Oleg Kharkhordin, Mark Kramer, Oxana Shevel, Joshua Tucker, Cory Welt, Jason Wittenberg, and David Woodruff for their contributions to different parts of the manuscript. I am particularly grateful to Rory MacFarquhar, who read and commented on several chapters of this manuscript in ways that significantly improved the project as a whole.

This manuscript owes a great debt to several generous institutions. The primary research was funded by a MacArthur Foundation Regional Relations Fellowship from the Institute of Governmental Cooperation and Conflict. Essential support for aspects of the research and writing was provided by the Social Science Research Council, the Institute for the Study of World Politics, the Academy for Educational Development (NSEP), the Berkeley Program in Post-Soviet Studies (BPS), the Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies, Yale's Department of Political Science, the MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies at Yale, and the Institution for Social and Policy Studies at Yale.

A great many other people have contributed to this dissertation and, unfortunately, only a small number of them can be acknowledged here. Many individuals in the post-Soviet states played a critical role in this project. I owe a deep and abiding debt to the people who brought me into their homes as a guest, fed me, housed me, and spoke frankly to me about the world as they saw it. I would especially like to thank those government officials who took time out of their very busy schedules to meet with me and to discuss their thoughts on the economic crisis that confronted them. Were it not for the cooperation of the Interstate Economic Commission, the Integration Commission, and the Executive Secretariat of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and numerous national ministries, there would be very little of substance in this book. I would particularly like to thank Boris G. Vladimirov, formerly of the IEC, for giving his staff the authority to meet with the citizen of a Cold War enemy and for providing me with my first interview and introduction to the post-Soviet universe.




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