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Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events


  • 210 b/w illus. 51 colour illus. 18 tables
  • Page extent: 370 pages
  • Size: 276 x 219 mm
  • Weight: 1.36 kg


 (ISBN-13: 9781107071421)

Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.

• Emphasises the predictability of extreme events, providing useful background information to help policymakers and managers plan for climate extremes and shorter-term forecasts of severe weather events • Provides a context for future research in the field of high-impact weather and climate extremes by compiling a wide variety of diagnostic and dynamical tools • Presents a less technical explanation of the dynamical processes involved in extreme weather events, making it accessible to a wider audience


Preface; Acknowledgements; List of contributors; Part I. Diagnostics and Prediction of High-Impact Weather: 1. Global prediction of high-impact weather: diagnosis and performance Mark Rodwell and Alan Thorpe; 2. Severe weather diagnosis from the perspective of generalized slantwise vorticity development Guoxiong Wu, Yongjun Zheng and Yimin Liu; 3. Probabilistic extreme event attribution Pardeep Pall, Michael Wehner and Dáithí Stone; 4. Observed and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes Xuebin Zhang and Francis Zwiers; Part II. High-Impact Weather in Mid-Latitudes: 5. Rossby wave breaking: climatology, interaction with low-frequency climate variability, and links to extreme weather events Olivia Martius and Gwendal Rivière; 6. The influence of jet stream regime on extreme weather events Nili Harnik, Chaim Garfinkel and Orli Lachmy; 7. Forecasting high-impact weather using ensemble prediction systems Richard Swinbank, Petra Friederichs and Sabrina Wahl; 8. Storm tracks, blocking and climate change: a review Tim Woollings; 9. The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations: climate variability, extremes and stratosphere troposphere interaction Adam A. Scaife; Part III. Tropical Cyclones: 10. Opportunities and challenges in dynamical and predictability studies of tropical cyclone events Russell L. Elsberry and Hsiao-Chung Tsai; 11. Predictability of severe weather and tropical cyclones at the mesoscales Fuqing Zhang, Christopher Melhauser, Dandan Tao, Y. Qiang Sun, Erin B. Munsell, Yonghui Weng and Jason A. Sippel; 12. Dynamics, predictability, and high-impact weather associated with the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones Patrick Harr and Heather M. Archambault; 13. Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones Chun-Chieh Wu, Yi-Hsuan Huang and Zhe-Min Tan; 14. Seasonal forecasting of floods and tropical cyclones Tom Beer and Oscar Alves; Part IV. Heat-Waves and Cold-Air Outbreaks: 15. European heat waves: the effect of soil moisture, vegetation and land use Fabio D'Andrea, Philippe Drobinski and Marc Stéfanon; 16. Western North American extreme heat, associated large scale synoptic-dynamics, and performance by a climate model Richard Grotjahn; 17. Decadel to interdecadel variations of Northern China heatwave frequency: impact of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover Zhiwei Wu and Jianping Li; 18. Global warming targets and heatwave risk Robin Clark; 19. Cold-air outbreaks over East Asia associated with blocking highs: mechanisms and their interaction with the polar stratosphere Hisashi Nakamura, Kazuaki Nishii, Lin Wang, Yvan J. Orsolini and Koutarou Takaya; Part V. Ocean Connections: 20. Response of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations Henk A. Dijkstra; 21. Key role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth-century drought and wet periods over the US Great Plains and the Sahel Sumant Nigam and Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas; 22. Floods and droughts along the Guinea Coast in connection with the South Atlantic Dipole Hyacinth C. Nnamchi and Jianping Li; 23. The effect of global dynamical factors on the interannual variability of land-based rainfall Peter G. Baines and Benjamin J. Henley; 24. MJO and extreme weather and climate events Chidong Zhang; Part VI. Asian Monsoons: 25. Extreme weather and seasonal events during the Indian summer monsoon and prospects of improvement in their prediction skill under India's monsoon mission D. R. Sikka; 26. Interannual variability and predictability of summer climate over the Northwest Pacific and East Asia Shang-Ping Xie and Yu Kosaka; 27. Impacts of Annular Modes on extreme climate events over the East Asian monsoon region Jianping Li; Index.


Mark Rodwell, Alan Thorpe, Guoxiong Wu, Yongjun Zheng, Yimin Liu, Pardeep Pall, Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Xuebin Zhang, Francis Zwiers, Olivia Martius, Gwendal Rivière, Nili Harnik, Chaim Garfinkel, Orli Lachmy, Richard Swinbank, Petra Friederichs, Sabrina Wahl, Tim Woollings, Adam A. Scaife, Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Fuqing Zhang, Christopher Melhauser, Dandan Tao, Y. Qiang Sun, Erin B. Munsell, Yonghui Weng, Jason A. Sippel, Patrick Harr, Heather M. Archambault, Chun-Chieh Wu, Yi-Hsuan Huang, Zhe-Min Tan, Tom Beer, Oscar Alves, Fabio D'Andrea, Philippe Drobinski, Marc Stéfanon, Richard Grotjahn, Zhiwei Wu, Jianping Li, Robin Clark, Hisashi Nakamura, Kazuaki Nishii, Lin Wang, Yvan J. Orsolini, Koutarou Takaya, Henk A. Dijkstra, Sumant Nigam, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Peter G. Baines, Benjamin J. Henley, Chidong Zhang, D. R. Sikka, Shang-Ping Xie, Yu Kosaka

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