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The City-Suburban Cleavage in Canadian Federal Politics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 August 2005

R. Alan Walks
R. Alan Walks
Affiliation:
University of Toronto
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Abstract

Abstract. Despite increasing speculation and attention, as of yet insufficient empirical research has been conducted on the possibility of a political cleavage based on differences between Canadian inner cities and suburbs. This article sheds light on the potential existence of such differences by analyzing federal elections at the level of the constituency from 1945 to 1997. Results show that city-suburban differences in federal party voting did not become significant until the 1980s, and increased after this point, with inner-city residents remaining to the left of the rest of Canada in their party preferences while suburbanites shifted increasingly to the right in their voting patterns. The results obtained from regression analysis suggest that such a divergence cannot be reduced solely to differences in social composition, housing tenure, or region, and thus confirm that it constitutes a ‘true’ political cleavage. It is argued that intra-urban geography needs to taken into account in future analyses of Canadian political behaviour.

Résumé. Malgré un intérêt croissant pour la question, il existe encore peu de recherches empiriques sur un possible clivage politique dont les fondements seraient les différences entre les quartiers urbains centraux et les banlieues. Cet article jette un nouvel éclairage sur l'existence possible de ces différences à partir d'une analyse des résultats électoraux dans les circonscriptions fédérales entre 1945 et 1997. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que les différences entre le vote pour les partis politiques fédéraux ne sont devenues significatives que pendant les années 1980, mais qu'elles se sont exacerbées par la suite, les résidents de quartiers centraux demeurant à la gauche de l'échiquier politique tandis que les banlieues votaient de plus en plus à droite. Les résultats de l'analyse de régression suggèrent que ces différences ne sont pas seulement attribuables à la composition sociale, au taux de propriété, ou encore à la région, et constituent par le fait même un “ véritable ” clivage politique. L'auteur conclut que l'analyse géographique intra-urbaine devra être prise en compte dans les analyses futures du comportement politique Canadien.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 38 , Issue 2 , June 2005 , pp. 383 - 413
Copyright
© 2005 Cambridge University Press

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