Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-wg55d Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-11T12:04:15.560Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Some Demographic Consequences of Revising the Definition of “Old Age” to Reflect Future Changes in Life Table Probabilities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 March 2010

Frank T. Denton  and
Byron G. Spencer
Frank T. Denton
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Byron G. Spencer*
Affiliation:
McMaster University
*
Requests for offprints should be sent to:/Les demandes de tirés-a-part doivent être adressées à : Byron G. Spencer, Ph.D., Director, QSEP Research Institute, Kenneth Taylor Hall, Room 426, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4M4. (spencer@mcmaster.ca)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Sixty-five has long been used to define the beginning of “old age”. Yet it is clear that the definition is arbitrary, and with continuing reductions in mortality and morbidity rates it will become increasingly inappropriate as time passes. We consider how the definition might be modified to reflect changes in life table probabilities, and how the future numbers and proportions in “old age” would be affected. In a similar manner, we consider also the redefinition of the “oldest old” from a current definition of 85 and over.

Résumé

Depuis longtemps l'âge de 65 ans sert à définir le début de la « vieillesse ». Il est pourtant évident que cette définition est arbitraire et qu'avec la baisse continuelle des taux de mortalité et de morbidité elle va devenir de moins en moins appropriée. On se penche sur la façon dont pourrait être modifiée cette définition afin de refléter les changements dans les probabilités basées sur la table de survie, et sur la façon dont seraient affectés les proportions et nombres futurs dans la catégorie «vieillesse». De même, on se penche sur la redéfinition des « grands vieillards » à partir de la définition actuelle de 85 ans et plus.

Keywords

agingoldage distributionmortalityvieillissementvieille/vieuxdistribution de l'âgemortalité
Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 21 , Issue 3 , Fall/Automne 2002 , pp. 349 - 356
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*The work reported in this paper was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Computational assistance was provided by Christine Feaver. We are grateful to the editor and three anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier version.

References

Auditor General (1998). Report of the Auditor General of Canada to the House of Commons. Ottawa: Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada.Google Scholar
Carrière, Y., & Légaré, J. (1993). Vieillissement démographique et institutionnalisation des personnes Çgées : des projections nuancées pour le Canada. Cahiers québécois de démographie, 22(1), 63–92.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chen, J., & Millar, W.J. (2000). Are recent cohorts healthier than their predecessors? Statistics Canada, Health Reports, (Spring) 9–24.Google Scholar
Denton, F.T., Feaver, C.H., & Spencer, B.G. (1994). Economic-demographic projection and simulation: A description of the MEDS system of models. In Rao, K.V. & Wicks, J. W. (Eds.), Studies in applied demography: Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Demography (pp. 3–12). Bowling Green, OH: Bowling Green State University.Google Scholar
Denton, F.T., & Spencer, B.G. (1999). How old is old? Revising the definition based on life table criteria. Mathematical Population Studies, 7(2), 147–159.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Denton, F.T., & Spencer, B.G. (2000). Some demographic consequences of revising the definition of “old” to reflect future changes in life table probabilities (Research Report No. 352). Hamilton, ON: McMaster University Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP). Also appears as Research Paper No. 22. Hamilton, ON: McMaster University Research Program on Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population (SEDAP).Google Scholar
Federal Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics (2000). Older Americans 2000: Key indicators of well-being. Retrieved July 25, 2002, from http://www.agingstats.gov/Google Scholar
Foot, D.K., & Venne, R.A. (1998). The time is right: Voluntary reduced worktime and workforce demographics. Canadian Studies in Population, 25(2), 91–114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gower, D. (1997). Measuring the age of retirement. Perspectives on Labour and Income, 9(2), 11–17 (catalogue no. 75-001-XPE). Ottawa, ON: Statistics Canada.Google Scholar
Havens, B. (1980). Differentiation of unmet needs using analysis by age/sex cohorts. In Marshall, V.W. (Ed.), Aging in Canada. Don Mills, ON: Fitzhenry & Whiteside.Google Scholar
Hudson, R. B. (1997). The history and place of age-based public policy. In Hudson, Robert B., (Ed.), The future of age-based public policy (pp. 1–22). Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Jans, L., & Stoddard, S. (1999). Chartbook on women and disability in the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research.Google Scholar
Johnson, M.L. (2000). Generational equity and the reformulation of retirement (Research Paper No. 12). Hamilton, ON: McMaster University Program for Research on Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population (SEDAP).Google Scholar
Justice, D. (1997). The aging network: A balancing act between universal coverage and defined eligibility. In Hudson, Robert B., (Ed.), The future of age-based public policy (pp. 168–77). Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Légaré, J. (1996). Ne crions pas au loup! Le vieillissement des populations. Interface, 17(3), 28–35.Google Scholar
Légaré, J., & Carrière, Y. (1991). Mourir en santé plutôt que vivre plus longtemps : un choix de société. In Durand, G. & Perrotin, C. (Eds.), Contribution a la réflexion bioéthique : dialogue France-Québec (pp. 145–164). Montreal, QC: Editions Fides.Google Scholar
Lee, R., & Skinner, J. (1999). Will aging baby boomers bust the Federal budget? Journal Of Economic Perspectives, 13(1), 117–140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manual, D.G., & Schultz, S.E. (2001). Adding years to life and life to years: Life and health expectancy in Ontario. ICES Atlas (Module 1, Report 1). Retrieved July 25, 2002, from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Web site: http://www.ices.on.ca/index.asp?head=2&main=atlasreportseries.asp&paramGoogle Scholar
Marmor, T. (1970). The politics of medicare. Chicago: Aldine.Google Scholar
National Advisory Council on Aging (1999). 1999 and beyond: Challenges of an aging Canadian society. Ottawa: Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada.Google Scholar
Nault, F., & Légaré, J. (1991). Ageing and education of the Québec population. Acta Demographica, 9(2), 114–125. Abstract obtained from S. Shiel, (1995), Annotated bibliography of Canadian demography, 1990–1994. London, ON: Population Studies Centre, The University of Western Ontario. Retrieved, August 9, 2002, from http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/popstudies/abcd/index.htmlGoogle Scholar
Neugarten, B.L. (1975a). Age groups in American society and the rise of the young-old. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 415, 187–198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neugarten, B.L. (1975b). The future and the young-old. The Gerontologist, 15(1), 4–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Palme, M., & Svensson, I. (1999). Social security, occupational pensions, and retirement in Sweden. In Gruber, J. & Wise, D. (Eds), Social security and retirement around the world (pp. 355–402). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Posner, R.A. (1995). Aging and old age. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Statistics Canada (2001). Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2000–2026 (catalogue no. 91-520-XPB). Ottawa, ON: Author.Google Scholar
Suzman, R.M., Willis, D.P., & Manton, K.G. (Eds.). (1992). The oldest old. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taeuber, C.M., & Rosenwaike, I. (1992). A demographic portrait of America's oldest old. In Suzman, R.M., Willis, D.P., & Manton, K.G. (Eds.), The oldest old. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
United Kingdom Department for Work and Pensions (2002). Know your options. Retrieved July 29,2002, from http://www.pensionguide.gov.uk/ind/pm1/basic.htmlGoogle Scholar
Walsh, M. (1999). Working past age 65. Perspectives on Labour and Income, 11(2), 16–20.Google Scholar
Wise, D.A. (1997). Retirement against the demographic trend: More older people living longer, working less, and saving less. Demography, 34(1), 83–95.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed