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Estimating patterns of vulnerability in a changing landscape: a case study of New Zealand's indigenous grasslands

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 November 2012

EMILY S. WEEKS ,
JACOB M. OVERTON  and
SUSAN WALKER
EMILY S. WEEKS*
Affiliation:
Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand
JACOB M. OVERTON
Affiliation:
Landcare Research, Private Bag 3127, Hamilton, New Zealand
SUSAN WALKER
Affiliation:
Landcare Research, Private Bag 1930, Dunedin, New Zealand
*
*Correspondence: Dr Emily Weeks e-mail: weekse@landcareresearch.co.nz
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Summary

Effective conservation planning must anticipate the rates and patterns of dynamic threats to biodiversity, such as rapid changes in land use. Poor understanding and prediction of drivers and patterns of conversion of habitat can hinder assessments of the relative vulnerability of areas of remaining indigenous habitat to conversion, and identification of habitats in most immediate need of protection. Methods developed to model vulnerability to conversion vary in their complexity and applicability to conservation management. Generalized additive models provide a simple robust method to explore predictors and patterns of land-use conversion, and may be used to predict future patterns of conversion using recent land conversion data. This paper provides the first data-derived and statistically validated measurement of the vulnerability of New Zealand's indigenous grasslands to conversion. Higher altitude and more marginal (for agriculture and forestry) land showed greater conversion, and models based on earlier conversion patterns performed more poorly in predicting current patterns of conversion. Up-to-date land conversion data appear crucial for accurately predicting future vulnerability to habitat conversion.

Keywords

biodiversityconservation planningindigenous grasslandland use changevulnerability
Type
Papers
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 40 , Issue 1 , March 2013 , pp. 84 - 95
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2012

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