Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-5nwft Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-11T00:46:17.152Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Assessing climate adaptation options for cereal-based systems in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, South Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 August 2019

K. Tesfaye Open the ORCID record for K. Tesfaye [Opens in a new window] ,
A. Khatri-Chhetri ,
P. K. Aggarwal ,
F. Mequanint Open the ORCID record for F. Mequanint [Opens in a new window] ,
P. B. Shirsath ,
C. M. Stirling ,
M. L. Jat ,
D. B. Rahut  and
O. Erenstein
K. Tesfaye*
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
A. Khatri-Chhetri
Affiliation:
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
P. K. Aggarwal
Affiliation:
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
F. Mequanint
Affiliation:
Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
P. B. Shirsath
Affiliation:
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
C. M. Stirling
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico
M. L. Jat
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
D. B. Rahut
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico
O. Erenstein
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico
*
Author for correspondence: K. Tesfaye, E-mail: K.tesfayefantaye@cgiar.org
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

New farming systems and management options are needed in South Asia as the intensive rice–wheat production system is set to become increasingly unsustainable under climate change. In the current study, six cropping systems options/treatments varying in tillage, crop establishment method, residue management, crop sequence and fertilizer and water management were evaluated using a cropping systems model under current (1980–2009) and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios in the state of Bihar, India. The treatments were current farmers' practice (CP), best fertilizer and water management practices, zero tillage (ZT) with no crop residue retention, ZT with partial crop residue retention (ZTPR), future conservation agriculture-based rice–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-1) and future conservation agriculture-based maize–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-2). The results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce rice–wheat system productivity under CP by 4% across Bihar. All the crop management options studied increased yield, water productivity and net returns over that of the CP under the current and future climate scenarios. However, the ZTPR treatment gave significantly higher relative yield, lower annual yield variability and a higher benefit-cost-ratio than the other treatments across cropping system components and climate periods. Although all the new cropping system treatments had a positive yield implication under the current climate (compared to CP), they did not contribute to adaptation under the future climate except FCS-2 in wheat. It is concluded that adaptation to future climate must integrate both cropping system innovations, and genetic improvements in stress tolerance.

Keywords

Climate changeclimate smart agriculturecrop modellingcropping systemsricewheat
Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 157 , Issue 3 , April 2019 , pp. 189 - 210
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Present address: Cocoa Life Crop Science Technology Platform Mondelez UK R&D Limited, Birmingham, U.K.

References

Aggarwal, PK and Mall, RK (2002) Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models. Climatic Change 52, 331–343.Google Scholar
Andales, AA, Batchelor, WD, Anderson, CE, Farnham, DE and Whigham, DK (2000) Incorporating tillage effects into a soybean model. Agricultural Systems 66, 69–98.Google Scholar
Aryal, JP, Mehrotra, MB, Jat, ML and Sidhu, HS (2015 a) Impacts of laser land leveling in rice-wheat systems of the north-western Indo-Gangetic plains of India. Food Security 7, 725–738.Google Scholar
Aryal, JP, Sapkota, TB, Jat, ML and Bishnoi, DK (2015 b) On-farm economic and environmental impact of zero-tillage wheat: a case of North-West India. Experimental Agriculture 51, 1–16.Google Scholar
Aryal, JP, Sapkota, TB, Stirling, CM, Jat, M, Jat, HS, Rai, M, Mittal, S and Sutaliya, JM (2016) Conservation agriculture-based wheat production better copes with extreme climate events than conventional tillage-based systems: a case of untimely excess rainfall in Haryana, India. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 233, 325–335.Google Scholar
Asseng, S, Ewert, F, Martre, P, Rötter, RP, Lobell, DB, Cammarano, D, Kimball, BA, Ottman, MJ, Wall, GW, White, JW, Reynolds, MP, Alderman, PD, Prasad, PVV, Aggarwal, PK, Anothai, J, Basso, B, Biernath, C, Challinor, AJ, De Sanctis, G, Doltra, J, Fereres, E, Garcia-Vila, M, Gayler, S, Hoogenboom, G, Hunt, LA, Izaurralde, RC, Jabloun, M, Jones, CD, Kersebaum, KC, Koehler, A-K, Müller, C, Kumar, SN, Nendel, C, O'Leary, G, Olesen, JE, Palosuo, T, Priesack, E, Rezaei, EE, Ruane, AC, Semenov, MA, Shcherbak, I, Stöckle, C, Stratonovitch, P, Streck, T, Supit, I, Tao, F, Thorburn, PJ, Waha, K, Wang, E, Wallach, D, Wolf, J, Zhao, Z and Zhu, Y (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 5, 143–147.Google Scholar
Balkovič, J, van der Velde, M, Skalský, R, Xiong, W, Folberth, C, Khabarov, N, Smirnov, A, Mueller, ND and Obersteiner, M (2014) Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways. Global and Planetary Change 122, 107–121.Google Scholar
Balwinder-Singh, , Humphreys, E, Eberbach, PL, Katupitiya, A, Yadvinder-Singh, and Kukal, SS (2011) Growth, yield and water productivity of zero till wheat as affected by rice straw mulch and irrigation schedule. Field Crops Research 121, 209–225.Google Scholar
Balwinder-Singh, , Humphreys, E, Gaydon, DS and Sudhir-Yadav, (2015) Options for increasing the productivity of the rice-wheat system of north west India while reducing groundwater depletion. Part 2. Is conservation agriculture the answer? Field Crops Research 173, 81–94.Google Scholar
Bates, D, Mächler, M, Bolker, B and Walker, S (2015) Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. Journal of Statistical Software 67, 1–48.Google Scholar
Batjes, NH (2009) Harmonized soil profile data for applications at global and continental scales: updates to the WISE database. Soil Use and Management 25, 124–127.Google Scholar
Batjes, NH (2012) ISRIC-WISE Derived Soil Properties on a 5 by 5 Arc-Minutes Global Grid (Ver. 1.2) (ISRIC Report 2012/01). Wageningen, the Netherlands: ISRIC-World Soil Information.Google Scholar
Boote, KJ, Jones, JW, White, JW, Asseng, S and Lizaso, JI (2013) Putting mechanisms into crop production models. Plant, Cell and Environment 36, 1658–1672.Google Scholar
Caviglia, OP, Sadras, VO and Andrade, FH (2013) Modelling long-term effects of cropping intensification reveals increased water and radiation productivity in the South-eastern Pampas. Field Crops Research 149, 300–311.Google Scholar
Challinor, AJ, Ewert, F, Arnold, S, Simelton, E and Fraser, E (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of Experimental Botany 60, 2775–2789.Google Scholar
Chattopadhyay, N (2011) Climate change and food security in India. In Lal, R, Sivakumar, MVK, Faiz, MA, Rahman, AHMM and Islam, KR (eds), Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Springer, pp. 229–252.Google Scholar
Corbeels, M, Chirat, G, Messad, S and Thierfelder, C (2016) Performance and sensitivity of the DSSAT crop growth model in simulating maize yield under conservation agriculture. European Journal of Agronomy 76, 41–53.Google Scholar
Dagar, JC, Singh, AK, Singh, R and Arunachalum, A (2012) Climate change vis-a-vis Indian agriculture. Annals of Agricultural Research New Series 33, 189–203.Google Scholar
Dalla Marta, A, Eitzinger, J, Kersebaum, K-C, Todorovic, M and Altobelli, F (2018) Assessment and monitoring of crop water use and productivity in response to climate change. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 156, 575–576.Google Scholar
Das, TK, Bandyopadhyay, KK, Bhattacharyya, R, Sudhishri, S, Sharma, AR, Behera, UK, Saharawat, YS, Sahoo, PK, Pathak, H, Vyas, AK, Bhar, LM, Gupta, HS, Gupta, RK and Jat, ML (2016) Effects of conservation agriculture on crop productivity and water-use efficiency under an irrigated pigeonpea-wheat cropping system in the western Indo-Gangetic Plains. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 154, 1327–1342.Google Scholar
Davis, KF, Rulli, MC, Seveso, A and D'Odorico, P (2017) Increased food production and reduced water use through optimized crop distribution. Nature Geoscience 10, 919–924.Google Scholar
DES (2015) Cost of Cultivation/Production & Related Data. New Delhi, India: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farm Welfare. Available at https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/Cost_of_Cultivation.htm (Accessed 8 July 2019).Google Scholar
DoA (Department of Agriculture) (2018). Bihar Agricultural Statistics at a Glance. Patna, India: Department of Agriculture, Government of Bihar. Available at http://krishi.bih.nic.in/statistics.htm (Accessed 25 June 2019).Google Scholar
Dubash, NK (2013) The politics of climate change in India: narratives of equity and cobenefits. WIREs Climate Change 4, 191–201.Google Scholar
Erenstein, O and Laxmi, V (2008) Zero tillage impacts in India's rice-wheat systems: a review. Soil and Tillage Research 100, 1–14.Google Scholar
Erenstein, O and Thorpe, W (2011) Livelihoods and agro-ecological gradients: a meso-level analysis in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India. Agricultural Systems 104, 42–53.Google Scholar
Erenstein, O, Hellin, J and Chandna, P (2010) Poverty mapping based on livelihood assets: a meso-level application in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India. Applied Geography 30, 112–125.Google Scholar
Fofana, B, Tamélokpo, A, Wopereis, MCS, Breman, H, Dzotsi, K and Carsky, RJ (2005) Nitrogen use efficiency by maize as affected by a mucuna short fallow and P application in the coastal savanna of West Africa. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 71, 227–237.Google Scholar
Garnett, T, Appleby, MC, Balmford, A, Bateman, IJ, Benton, TG, Bloomer, P, Burlingame, B, Dawkins, M, Dolan, L, Fraser, D, Herrero, M, Hoffmann, I, Smith, P, Thornton, PK, Toulmin, C, Vermeulen, SJ and Godfray, HCJ (2013) Sustainable intensification in agriculture: premises and policies. Science 341, 33–34.Google Scholar
Gathala, MK, Ladha, JK, Kumar, V, Saharawat, YS, Kumar, V, Sharma, PK, Sharma, S and Pathak, H (2011) Tillage and crop establishment affects sustainability of South Asian rice–wheat system. Agronomy Journal 103, 961–971.Google Scholar
Gathala, MK, Kumar, V, Sharma, PC, Saharawat, YS, Jat, HS, Singh, M, Kumar, A, Jat, ML, Humphreys, E, Sharma, DK, Sharma, S and Ladha, JK (2013) Optimizing intensive cereal-based cropping systems addressing current and future drivers of agricultural change in the Northwestern Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 177, 85–97.Google Scholar
Gathala, MK, Timsina, J, Islam, MS, Rahman, MM, Hossain, MI, Harun-Ar-Rashid, M, Ghosh, AK, Krupnik, TJ, Tiwari, TP and McDonald, A (2015) Conservation agriculture based tillage and crop establishment options can maintain farmers’ yields and increase profits in south Asia's rice-maize systems: evidence from Bangladesh. Field Crops Research 172, 85–98.Google Scholar
Gijsman, AJ, Hoogenboom, G, Parton, WJ and Kerridge, PC (2002) Modifying DSSAT crop models for low-input agricultural systems using a soil organic matter – residue module from CENTURY. Agronomy Journal 94, 462–474.Google Scholar
GOB (2015)Bihar State Action Plan on Climate Change: Building Resilience Through Development. Patna, India: Government of Bihar. Available at http://www.youngindiatimes.com/downloadfile/Bihar-State%20Action%20Plan%20on%20Climate%20Change.pdf (Accessed 25 June 2018).Google Scholar
Grace, PR, Harrington, L, Mabesh, CJ and Robertson, GP (2003) Long-term sustainability of the tropical and subtropical rice–wheat system: an environmental perspective. In Ladha, JK, Hill, JE, Duxbury, JM, Gupta, RK and Buresh, RJ (eds), Improving the Productivity and Sustainability of Rice-Wheat Systems: Issues and Impacts. Madison, WI, USA: ASA, CCSA, SSSA, pp. 27–43.Google Scholar
Guan, K, Sultan, B, Biasutti, M, Baron, C and Lobell, DB (2017) Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 232, 291–305.Google Scholar
Gupta, PK, Sahai, S, Singh, N, Dixit, CK, Singh, DP, Sharma, C, Tiwari, MK, Gupta, RK and Garg, SC (2004) Residue burning in rice–wheat cropping system: causes and implications. Current Science 87, 1713–1717.Google Scholar
Hasegawa, H, Labavitch, JM, McGuire, AM, Bryant, DC and Denison, RF (1999) Testing CERES model predictions of N release from legume cover crop residue. Field Crops Research 63, 255–267.Google Scholar
Hasegawa, H, Bryant, DC and Denison, RF (2000) Testing CERES model predictions of crop growth and N dynamics, in cropping systems with leguminous green manures in a Mediterranean climate. Field Crops Research 67, 239–255.Google Scholar
Hati, KM, Singh, RK, Mandal, KG, Bandyopadhyay, KK, Somasundaram, J, Mohanty, M, Sinha, NK, Chaudhary, RS and Biswas, AK (2016) Conservation tillage effects on soil physical properties, organic carbon concentration and productivity of soybean-wheat cropping system. Journal of Agricultural Physics 14, 121–129.Google Scholar
Hellin, J, Krishna, VV, Erenstein, O and Boeber, C (2015) India's poultry revolution: implications for its sustenance and the global poultry trade. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 18 (SpIss A), 151–164.Google Scholar
Hochman, Z, Horan, H, Reddy, DR, Sreenivas, G, Tallapragada, C, Adusumilli, R, Gaydon, DS, Laing, A, Kokic, P, Singh, KK and Roth, CH (2017 a) Smallholder farmers managing climate risk in India: 2. Is it climate-smart? Agricultural Systems 151, 61–72.Google Scholar
Hochman, Z, Horan, H, Reddy, DR, Sreenivas, G, Tallapragada, C, Adusumilli, R, Gaydon, D, Singh, KK and Roth, CH (2017 b) Smallholder farmers managing climate risk in India: 1. Adapting to a variable climate. Agricultural Systems 150, 54–66.Google Scholar
Hoogenboom, G, Jones, JW, Wilkens, PW, Porter, CH, Boote, KJ, Hunt, LA, Singh, U, Lizaso, JI, White, JW, Uryasev, O, Ogoshi, R, Koo, J, Shelia, V and Tsuji, GY (2014) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.6 (www.DSSAT.Net). Prosser, Washington, USA: DSSAT Foundation.Google Scholar
Humphreys, E, Kukal, SS, Christen, EW, Hira, GS, Balwinder-Singh, , Sudhir-Yadav, and Sharma, RK (2010) Halting the groundwater decline in North-West India – which crop technologies will be winners? Advances in Agronomy 109, 155–217.Google Scholar
Hundal, SS and Prabhjyot-Kaur, (2007) Climatic variability and its impact on cereal productivity in Indian Punjab. Current Science 92, 506–512.Google Scholar
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.Google Scholar
Jagtap, SS, Abamu, FJ and Kling, JG (1999) Long-term assessment of nitrogen and variety technologies on attainable maize yields in Nigeria using CERES-maize. Agricultural Systems 60, 77–86.Google Scholar
Jat, RK, Sapkota, TB, Singh, RG, Jat, ML, Kumar, M and Gupta, RK (2014) Seven years of conservation agriculture in a rice-wheat rotation of Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia: yield trends and economic profitability. Field Crops Research 164, 199–210.Google Scholar
Johansen, C, Duxburv, JM, Virmani, SM, Gowda, CLL, Pande, S and Joshi, PK (eds) (2000) Legumes in Rice and Wheat Cropping Systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain – Constraints and Opportunities. Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics and Cornell University.Google Scholar
Jones, JW, Hoogenboom, G, Porter, CH, Boote, KJ, Batchelor, WD, Hunt, LA, Wilkens, PW, Singh, U, Gijsman, AJ and Ritchie, JT (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy 18, 235–265.Google Scholar
Keil, A, D'Souza, A and McDonald, A (2015) Zero-tillage as a pathway for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: does it work in farmers’ fields? Food Security 7, 983–1001.Google Scholar
Keil, A, D'Souza, A and McDonald, A (2016) Growing the service economy for sustainable wheat intensification in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains: lessons from custom hiring services for zero-tillage. Food Security 8, 1011–1028.Google Scholar
Khatri-Chhetri, A, Aryal, JP, Sapkota, TB and Khurana, R (2016) Economic benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices to smallholder farmers in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. Current Science 110, 1251–1256.Google Scholar
Kumar, V and Ladha, JK (2011) Direct seeding of rice. Recent developments and future research needs. Advances in Agronomy 111, 297–413.Google Scholar
Kumar, V, Saharawat, YS, Gathala, MK, Jat, AS, Singh, SK, Chaudhary, N and Jat, ML (2013) Effect of different tillage and seeding methods on energy use efficiency and productivity of wheat in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Field Crops Research 142, 1–8.Google Scholar
Ladha, JK, Hill, JE, Duxbury, JM, Gupta, RK and Buresh, RJ (2003 a) Improving the Productivity and Sustainability of Rice-Wheat Systems: Issues and Impacts. ASA Special Publication 65.Madison, WI, USA: ASA, CSSA, SSSA, pp. 173–196.Google Scholar
Ladha, JK, Pathak, H, Tirol-Padre, A, Dawe, D and Gupta, RK (2003 b) Productivity trends in intensive rice–wheat cropping systems in Asia. In Ladha, JK, Hill, JE, Duxbury, JM, Gupta, RK and Buresh, RJ (eds). Improving the Productivity and Sustainability of Rice–Wheat Systems: Issues and Impacts. Madison, WI: ASA, CSSA, SSSA, pp. 45–76.Google Scholar
Ladha, JK, Rao, AN, Raman, AK, Padre, AT, Dobermann, A, Gathala, M, Kumar, V, Sharawat, Y, Sharma, S, Piepho, HP, Alam, MM, Liak, R, Rajendran, R, Reddy, CK, Parsad, R, Sharma, PC, Singh, SS, Saha, A and Noor, S (2016) Agronomic improvements can make future cereal systems in South Asia far more productive and result in a lower environmental footprint. Global Change Biology 22, 1054–1074.Google Scholar
Liu, HL, Yang, JY, Drury, CF, Reynolds, WD, Tan, CS, Bai, YL, He, P, Jin, J and Hoogenboom, G (2011) Using the DSSAT-CERES-maize model to simulate crop yield and nitrogen cycling in fields under long-term continuous maize production. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 89, 313–328.Google Scholar
Liu, B, Asseng, S, Müller, C, Ewert, F, Elliott, J, Lobell, DB, Martre, P, Ruane, AC, Wallach, D, Jones, JW, Rosenzweig, C, Aggarwal, PK, Aldeman, PD, Anothai, J, Basso, B, Biernath, C, Cammarano, D, Challinor, A, Deryng, D, Sanctis, GD, Doltra, J, Fereres, E, Folberth, C, Garcia-Vila, M, Gayler, S, Hoogenboom, G, Hunt, LA, Izaurralde, RC, Jabloun, M, Jones, CD, Kersebaum, KC, Kimball, BA, Koehler, AK, Kumar, SN, Nendel, C, O'Leary, G, Olesen, JE, Ottman, MJ, Palosuo, T, Prasad, PVV, Priesack, E, Pugh, TAM, Reynolds, M, Rezaei, EE, Rötter, RP, Schmid, E, Semenov, MA, Shcherbak, I, Stehfest, E, Stöckle, CO, Stratonovitch, P, Streck, T, Supit, I, Tao, F, Thorburn, P, Waha, K, Wall, GW, Wang, E, White, JW, Wolf, J, Zhao, Z and Zhu, Y (2016) Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change 6, 1130–1136.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB (2014) Climate change adaptation in crop production: beware of illusions. Global Food Security 3, 72–76.Google Scholar
Luo, Q (2011) Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review. Climatic Change 109, 583–598.Google Scholar
Matthews, RB, Rivington, M, Muhammed, S, Newton, AC and Hallett, PD (2013) Adapting crops and cropping systems to future climates to ensure food security: the role of crop modelling. Global Food Security 2, 24–28.Google Scholar
Mishra, A, Singh, R, Raghuwanshi, NS, Chatterjee, C and Froebrich, J (2013)Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga basin. Science of the Total Environment 468–469(Supp 1), S132–S138.Google Scholar
Mosier, AR, Duxbury, JM, Freney, JR, Heinemeyer, O, Minami, K and Johnson, DE (1998) Mitigating agricultural emissions of methane. Climatic Change 40, 39–80.Google Scholar
Ngwira, AR, Aune, JB and Thienrfelder, C (2014) DSSAT modelling of conservation agriculture maize response to climate change in Malawi. Soil & Tillage Research 143, 85–94.Google Scholar
Parry, ML, Rosenzweig, C, Iglesias, A, Livermore, M and Fischer, G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14, 53–67.Google Scholar
Pathak, H, Timsina, J, Humphreys, E and Godwin, DC (2004) Simulation of Rice Crop Performance and Water and N Dynamics, and Methane Emissions for Rice in Northwest India Using CSM-CERES-Rice Model (CSIRO Land and Water Technical Report No. 23/04, Griffith, Australia). Available at https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=procite:ba289b22-abd5-49de-a4f9-1d4d3e7d (Accessed 20 July 2018).Google Scholar
Piani, C, Weedon, GP, Best, M, Gomes, SM, Viterbo, P, Hagemann, S and Haerter, JO (2010) Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology 395, 199–215.Google Scholar
Porter, CH, Jones, JW, Adiku, S, Gijsman, AJ, Gargiulo, O and Naab, JB (2010) Modeling organic carbon and carbon-mediated soil processes in DSSAT v4.5. Operational Research 10, 247–278.Google Scholar
Prabhjyot-Kaur, and Hundal, SS (2010) Global climate change vis-a-vis crop productivity. In Jha, MK (ed.), Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters: Vulnerability, Preparedness and Mitigation. New Delhi, India/Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Capital Publishing Company/Springer, pp. 413–431.Google Scholar
Reynolds, MP, Quilligan, E, Aggarwal, PK, Bansal, KC, Cavalieri, AJ, Chapman, SC, Chapotin, SM, Datta, SK, Duveiller, E, Gill, KS, Jagadish, KSV, Joshi, AK, Koehler, A-K, Kosina, P, Krishnan, S, Lafitte, R, Mahala, RS, Muthurajan, R, Paterson, AH, Prasanna, BM, Rakshit, S, Rosegrant, MW, Sharma, I, Singh, RP, Sivasankar, S, Vadez, V, Valluru, R, Prasad, PVV and Yadav, OP (2016) An integrated approach to maintaining cereal productivity under climate change. Global Food Security 8, 9–18.Google Scholar
Ritchie, JT, Porter, CH, Judge, J, Jones, JW and Suleiman, AA (2009) Extension of an existing model for soil water evaporation and redistribution under high water content conditions. Soil Science Society of America Journal 73, 792–801.Google Scholar
Ruane, AC, Cecil, LD, Horton, RM, Gordón, R, McCollum, R, Brown, D, Killough, B, Goldberg, R, Greeley, AP and Rosenzweig, C (2013) Climate change impact uncertainties for maize in Panama: farm information, climate projections, and yield sensitivities. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170, 132–145.Google Scholar
RWC-CIMMYT (2003) Addressing Resource Conservation Issues in Rice-Wheat Systems of South Asia: A Resource Book. New Delhi, India: Rice-Wheat Consortium for the lndo-Gangetic Plains – International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.Google Scholar
Saba, A, Biasutti, M, Gerrard, MB and Lobell, DB (2013) Getting ahead of the curve: supporting adaptation to long-term climate change and short-term Climate Variability Alike. Carbon & Climate Law Review 7, 3–23.Google Scholar
Saharawat, YS, Ladha, JK, Pathak, H, Gathala, M, Chaudhary, N and Jat, ML (2012) Simulation of resource-conserving technologies on productivity, income and greenhouse gas GHG emission in rice-wheat system. Journal of Soil Science and Environmental Management 3, 9–22.Google Scholar
Sapkota, TB, Jat, ML, Shankar, V, Singh, LK, Rai, M, Grewal, MS and Stirling, CM (2015) Tillage, residue and nitrogen management effects on methane and nitrous oxide emission from rice–wheat system of Indian Northwest Indo-Gangetic Plains. Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences 12 (Supp 1), 31–46.Google Scholar
Saseendran, SA, Ma, L, Malone, R, Heilman, P, Ahuja, LR, Kanwar, RS, Karlen, DL and Hoogenboom, G (2007) Simulating management effects on crop production, tile drainage, and water quality using RZWQM – DSSAT. Geoderma 140, 297–309.Google Scholar
Scopel, E, Da Silva, FaM, Corbeels, M, Affholder, F and Maraux, F (2004) Modelling crop residue mulching effects on water use and production of maize under semi-arid and humid tropical conditions. Agronomie 24, 383–395.Google Scholar
Shiferaw, B, Prasanna, BM, Hellin, J and Bänziger, M (2011) Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security. Food Security 3, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0140-5.Google Scholar
Smith, P, Martino, D, Cai, Z, Gwary, D, Janzen, H, Kumar, P, McCarl, B, Ogle, S, O'Mara, F, Rice, C, Scholes, B, Sirotenko, O, Howden, M, McAllister, T, Pan, G, Romanenkov, V, Schneider, U, Towprayoon, S, Wattenbach, M and Smith, J (2008) Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363, 789–813.Google Scholar
Soldevilla-Martinez, M, Martin-Lammerding, D, Tenorio, JL, Walter, I, Quemada, M and Lizaso, JI (2013) Simulating improved combinations tillage-rotation under dryland conditions. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research 11, 820–832.Google Scholar
Tesfaye, K, Aggarwal, PK, Mequanint, F, Shirsath, PB, Stirling, CM, Khatri-Chhetri, A and Rahut, DB (2017 a) Climate variability and change in Bihar, India: challenges and opportunities for sustainable crop production. Sustainability 9, https://doi.org/10.3390/su9111998.Google Scholar
Tesfaye, K, Zaidi, PH, Gbegbelegbe, S, Boeber, C, Rahut, DB, Getaneh, F, Seetharam, K, Erenstein, O and Stirling, C (2017 b) Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 130, 959–970.Google Scholar
Tesfaye, K, Kruseman, G, Cairns, JE, Zaman-Allah, M, Wegary, D, Zaidi, PH, Boote, KJ, Rahutc, D and Erenstein, O (2018) Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance for adapting maize to climate change in tropical environments. Climate Risk Management 19, 106–119.Google Scholar
Thaler, S, Eitzinger, J, Trnka, M and Dubrovsky, M (2012) Impacts of climate change and alternative adaptation options on winter wheat yield and water productivity in a dry climate in Central Europe. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 150, 537–555.Google Scholar
Tilman, D, Balzer, C, Hill, J and Befort, B (2011) Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, 20260–20264.Google Scholar
Timsina, J and Humphreys, E (2006) Performance of CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat models in rice–wheat systems: a review. Agricultural Systems 90, 5–31.Google Scholar
Tongwane, M, Mdlambuzi, T, Moeletsi, M, Tsubo, M, Mliswa, V and Grootboom, L (2016) Greenhouse gas emissions from different crop production and management practices in South Africa. Environmental Development 19, 23–35.Google Scholar
Verhulst, N, Sayre, KD, Vargas, M, Crossa, J, Deckers, J, Raes, D and Govaerts, B (2011) Wheat yield and tillage–straw management system × year interaction explained by climatic co-variables for an irrigated bed planting system in northwestern Mexico. Field Crops Research 124, 347–356.Google Scholar
Walker, NJ and Schulze, RE (2006) Anassessment of sustainable maize production under different management and climate scenarios for smallholder agro-ecosystems in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Physics Chemistry of the Earth Parts ABC 31, 995–1002.Google Scholar
Yu, Q, Saseendran, SA, Ma, L, Flerchinger, GN, Green, TR and Ahuja, LR (2006) Modeling a wheat–maize double cropping system in China using two plant growth modules in RZWQM. Agricultural Systems 89, 457–477.Google Scholar
Zhao, C, Liu, B, Piao, S, Wang, X, Lobell, DB, Huang, Y, Huang, M, Yao, Y, Bassu, S, Ciais, P, Durand, J-L, Elliott, J, Ewert, F, Janssens, IA, Li, T, Lin, E, Liu, Q, Martre, P, Müller, C, Peng, S, Peñuelas, J, Ruane, AC, Wallach, D, Wang, T, Wu, D, Liu, Z, Zhu, Y, Zhu, Z and Asseng, S (2017) Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326–9331.Google Scholar