Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-fqc5m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-19T10:36:57.865Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Survival of the Richest: The Malthusian Mechanism in Pre-Industrial England

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 September 2006

GREGORY CLARK
Affiliation:
Professor, Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616-8578. E-mail: gclark@ucdavis.edu.
GILLIAN HAMILTON
Affiliation:
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Toronto, 150 St. George St., Toronto, ON, Canada, M5S 3G7. E-mail: hamiltng@chass.utoronto.ca.

Abstract

Fundamental to the Malthusian model of pre-industrial society is the assumption that higher income increased reproductive success. Despite the seemingly inescapable logic of this model, its empirical support is weak. We examine the link between income and net fertility using data from wills on reproductive success, social status and income for England 1585–1638. We find that for this society, close to a Malthusian equilibrium, wealth robustly predicted reproductive success. The richest testators left twice as many children as the poorest. Consequently, in this static economy, social mobility was predominantly downwards. The result extends back to at least 1250 in England.

Type
ARTICLES
Copyright
© 2006 The Economic History Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allen Marion E. 1989. Wills of the Archdeaconry of Suffolk, 1620–24. Woodbridge, Suffolk: Boydell Press for the Suffolk Records Society, Volume 31
Atkinson J. A. 1993. Darlington Wills and Inventories, 1600–1625. Newcastle-upon-Tyne: Publications of the Surtees Society, v. 201, Atheneum Press
Cameron A. Colin, and Pravin K. Trivedi. 1998. Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Charbonneau Henry. 1970. Tourouvre-au-Perche aux XVIIe et XVIIIe Siècles. Paris
Clark Gregory. (1998): “Land Hunger: Land as a Commodity and as a Status Good in England, 1500–1910.” Explorations in Economic History 35, no. 1 5982.Google Scholar
Clark Gregory. (2002): “Farmland Rental Values and Agrarian History: England, 1500–1912.” European Review of Economic History 6, no. 3 281309.Google Scholar
Clark Gregory. (2002): “Shelter from the Storm: Housing and the Industrial Revolution, 1550–1912.” This Journal 62, no. 2 489511.Google Scholar
Clark Gregory. “The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209–2004.” Journal of Political Economy (2005): 113, no. 6 130740.Google Scholar
Clark Gregory. 2006. “The Long March of History: Farm Wages, Population and Economic Growth: England 1209–1869.” Forthcoming, Economic History Review,Google Scholar
Clark Gregory. A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Forthcoming, Princeton University Press.
Derouet Bernard. (Jan.–Feb. 1980): “Une démographie sociale differentielle: Clés pour un système auto-régulateur des populations rurales d'Ancien Régime.” Annales: E.S.C., 35 341.Google Scholar
Emmison F. G. Essex Wills. Vols. 10–12. Chelmsford: Essex Record Office, 1995, 1998, 2000.
Evans Nesta. 1987. The Wills of the Archdeaconry of Sudbury, 1630–35. Suffolk Records Society, Vol. 29. Woodbridge, Suffolk: The Boydell Press
Evans Nesta. 1993. The Wills of the Archdeaconry of Sudbury, 1636–38. Suffolk Records Society, Vol. 35. Woodbridge, Suffolk: The Boydell Press
Fry Edward Alex, and George Samuel Fry. 1914. Abstracts of Wiltshire Inquisitions Post Mortem. British Record Society, Volume 48. London
(1988): Galloway Patrick R.Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptuality, Mortality, and Prices in Pre-Industrial Europe.” Population Studies 42, no. 2, 275302.Google Scholar
Galor Oded, and David N. Weil. (2000): “Population, Technology and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond.” American Economic Review 90, no. 4 80628.Google Scholar
Galor Oded, and Omer Moav. (2002): “Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 113391.Google Scholar
Gottfried Robert S. 1978. Epidemic Disease in Fifteenth Century England. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press
Gottfried Robert S. 1982. Bury St. Edmunds and the Urban Crisis, 1290–1539. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Hadeishi Hajime. (2003): “Economic Well-Being and Fertility in France: Nuits, 1744–1792.” This Journal 63, no. 2 489505.Google Scholar
Hamilton Gillian, and Gregory Clark. 2006. “Economic Status and Reproductive Success in New France.” Mimeo
Hansen G., and Edward C. Prescott. (2002): “Malthus to Solow.” American Economic Review 92, no. 4 120517.Google Scholar
Harvey Barbara. 1995. Living and Dying in England, 1100–1540: The Monastic Experience. Oxford: Oxford University Press,
Hollingsworth Thomas H. 1965. The Demography of the British Peerage. London: Population Investigation Committee, LSE,
Landers John. 1993. Death and the Metropolis: Studies in the Demographic History of London, 1670–1830. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Lang Sheila, and Margaret McGregor. 1993. Tudor Wills Proved in Bristol, 1546–1603. Bristol: Bristol Record Society,
Lea J. Henry. 1904. Abstracts of Wills in the Prerogative Court of Canterbury at Somerset House, London, England. Boston, MA: New-England Historic Genealogical Society,
Lindert Peter. 1985. “Lucrens Angliae: The Distribution of English Private Wealth since 1670.” Working Paper #18, Agricultural History Center, University of California, Davis,
Low Bobbi S. (1990): “Occupational Status, Landownership and Reproductive Behavior in 19th-Century Sweden: Tuna Parish.” American Anthropologist, New Series 92, no. 2 45768.Google Scholar
Lucas Robert E. 2002. “The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future.” In Lectures on Economic Growth by Robert E. Lucas, 10975. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press
Malthus Thomas Robert. 1826. An Essay on the Principle of Population. 6th Edition. London: John Murray
Miller Merton H., and Charles W. Upton. 1986. Macroeconomics: A Neoclassical Introduction. Chicago: University of Chicago Press
Razi Zvi. 1980. Life, Marriage and Death in a Medieval Parish: Economy, Society and Demography in Halesowen, 1270–1400. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Russell Josiah Cox. 1948. British Medieval Population. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.
Stewart rown, Ronald. Cheshire Inquisitions Post Mortem, Stuart Period, 1608–1660. Lancashire and Cheshire Record Society, volumes 84 86, 91. Kendall, 193438.
Thrupp Sylvia. (1965): “The Problem of Replacement-Rates in Late Medieval English Population.” Economic History Review, 2nd series, 18, no. 1 10119.Google Scholar
Tsuya Noriko O., and Kiyoshi Hamano. (2001): “Mortality Responses to Rice Price Fluctuations and Household Factors in a Farming Village in Central Tokugawa Japan.” History of the Family 6 131.Google Scholar
Weir David. (1995): “Family Income, Mortality, and Fertility on the Eve of the Demographic Transition: A Case Study of Rosny-Sous-Bois.” This Journal 55, no. 1 126.Google Scholar
Wrigley E. A., R. S. Davies, J. E. Oeppen, and R. S. Schofield. 1997. English Population History from Family Reconstitution, 1580–1837. Cambridge Studies in Population, Economy, and Society in Past Time, 32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press