Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-p2v8j Total loading time: 0.001 Render date: 2024-05-31T19:28:26.425Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Lagged Learning and the Response to Equilibrium Shock: The Global Financial Crisis and IMF Surveillance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2011

Manuela Moschella
Manuela Moschella*
Affiliation:
Sociology, University of Trento
*
Manuela Moschella Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Italy, Via Verdi 26, 38100 Trento, Tel:+39 0461 881386; Fax: +39 0461 881348, e-mail: Manuela.Moschella@sis.unitn.it
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The paper investigates the changes to the Fund's bilateral surveillance policy in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 asking about the factors that caused the quick and deep shift to a systemic surveillance approach. In answering this question, the paper argues that the causes of the quick and deep transformation of IMF surveillance lie in the preceding two decades of incremental accumulation of knowledge and small transformations in policy instruments and organizational practices. In identifying the causes of present policy choices in the lessons drawn from past experience, the paper provides an example of lagged learning because the lessons drawn from the 1990s emerging market crises exerted their full impact only as a response to the global financial crisis. These findings therefore contribute to the literature that aims at showing the importance of temporality and process sequencing to explain policy change.

Keywords

IMFsurveillancecrisislearningsequencing
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 31 , Issue 2 , August 2011 , pp. 121 - 141
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baker, A. (2010) Financial Booms, Crisis Politics and Macroprudential Regulation: The Political Economy of an Ideational shift. Paper presented at the AGORA workshop on Global Knowledge Networks, Brown University, 21–2 June.Google Scholar
Barnett, M. N.Finnemore, M. (2004) Rules for the World: International Organizations in Global Politics. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, F. R.Jones, B. D. (1993) Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B. (2009) Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C., 24 July.Google Scholar
Borio, C.White, W. (2004) Whiter Monetary and Financial Stability: The Implications for Evolving Policy Regimes. BIS Working Papers 147, Bank for International Settlements, Basel.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borio, C. et al. (2001) Procyclicality of the Financial System and Financial Stability Issues and Policy Options. BIS Papers 1(March): 1–57.Google Scholar
Capano, G. (2009) Understanding Policy Change as an Epistemological and Theoretical Problem. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 11(1): 7–31.Google Scholar
Cashore, B.Howlett, M. (2007) Punctuating Which Equilibrium? Understanding Thermostatic Policy Dynamics in Pacific Northwest Forestry. American Journal of Political Science 51(3): 532–551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chwieroth, J. M. (2010) Capital Ideas: The IMF and the Rise of Financial Liberalization. Princenton: Princenton University Press.Google Scholar
Clark, I. (1996) ‘Inside the IMF: Comparisons with Policy-making Organizations in Canadian Governments’. Canadian Public Administration 39(2): 157–191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drezner, D. W. (2007) All politics is global: Explaining international regulatory regimes. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gola, C.Spadafora, F. (2009) Financial Sector Surveillance and the IMF. IMF Working Papers WP/09/247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, M. (1998) The Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures, and Systemic Implications. Washington, D.C.: Institute of International Economics.Google Scholar
Hall, P. A. (1993) Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State: The Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain. Comparative Politics 25(3): 275–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haydu, J. (1998) Making Use of the Past: Time Periods as Cases to Compare and As Sequences of Problem Solving. American Journal of Sociology 104(2): 339–371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heclo, H. (1974) Modern Social Politics in Britain and Sweden. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Helleiner, E. et al. (eds.) (2009) Global Finance in Crisis. The Politics of International Regulatory Change. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Howlett, M. (2009) Process Sequencing Policy Dynamics: Beyond Homeostasis and Path Dependency. Journal of Public Policy 29(3): 241–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howlett, M.Cashore, B. (2009) The Dependent Variable Problem in the Study of Policy Change: Understanding Policy Change as a Methodological Problem. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 11(1): 33–46.Google Scholar
Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) (2011) IMF Performance In the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2004–2007. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) (2006) Multilateral Surveillance. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
IMF (1997) Biennial Review of the Implementation of the Fund's Surveillance over Members’ Exchange Rate Policies, and of the 1977 Surveillance Decision. IMF Archives, SM/97/53 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 19 February 1997).Google Scholar
IMF (1998) Review of Members’ Policies in the Context of Surveillance Lessons for Surveillance from the Asian Crisis. IMF Archives, EBS/98/44 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 9 March 1998).Google Scholar
IMF (1999) External Evaluation of IMF Surveillance. Report by a Group of Independent Expert. IMF Archives, EBAP/99/86 (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 15 June 1999).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IMF (2000) Financial Sector Assessment Program: A Review-Lessons from the Pilot and Issues Going Forward. IMF Archives, Washington, D.C., SM/00/263. 27 November 2000.Google Scholar
IMF (2007) Bilateral Surveillance over Members’ Policies. Executive Board Decision, 15 June 2007.Google Scholar
IMF (2008a) 2008 Triennial Surveillance Review—Overview Paper. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2 September.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IMF (2008b) IMF Executive Board Adopts Surveillance Priorities for 2008–2011. Press Release No. 08/238. 8 October.Google Scholar
IMF (2009a) Bilateral Surveillance Guidance Note. Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 27 October.Google Scholar
IMF (2009b) Communiqué of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, 25 April.Google Scholar
IMF (2009c) Financial Sector and Bilateral Surveillance-Toward Further Integration. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 28 August.Google Scholar
IMF (2010) Review of the Fund's Mandate—Follow-Up on Modernizing Surveillance, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 30 July.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IMF, Bank for International Settlements, and the Financial Stability Board (2009) Guidance to Assess the Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions, Markets and Instruments: Initial Considerations, October.Google Scholar
Kodres, L.Narain, A. (2010) Redesigning the Contours of the Future Financial System, IMF Staff Position Note Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krugman, P. (1995) ‘Dutch Tulips and Emerging Markets’. Foreign Affairs 74(4): 28–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mahoney, J.Thelen, K. (2010) A Theory of Gradual Institutional Change. In Mahoney J. and Thelen K. (eds.), Explaining Institutional Change. Ambiguity, Agency, and Power. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, L. L.Simmons, B. A. (1998) Theories and Empirical Studies of International Institutions. International Organization 52(4): 729–757.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Momani, B. (2005a) Limits on Streamlining Fund Conditionality: The International Monetary Fund's Organizational Culture. Journal of International Relations and Development 8(2): 142–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Momani, B. (2005b) Recruiting and Diversifying IMF Technocrats. Global Society 19(2): 167–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moschella, M. (2012) IMF Surveillance in Crisis. The Past, Present, and Future of the Reform Process. Global Society 26(1).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moschella, M. (2010) Governing Risk: The IMF and Global Financial Crises. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newton, K.van Deth, J. W. (2005) Foundations of Comparative Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noble, G. W.Ravenhill, J. (eds.) (2000) The Asian Financial Crisis and the Architecture of Global Finance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Seabrooke, L. (2007) Legitimacy Gaps in the World Economy: Explaining the Sources of the IMF's Legitimacy Crisis. International Politics 44(2–3): 250–268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strauss-Kahn, D. (2010) Crisis and Beyond—the Next Phase of IMF Reform, Speech delivered at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Washington D.C., 29 June.Google Scholar
Streeck, W.Thelen, K. (eds.) (2005) Beyond Continuity: Institutional Change in Advanced Political Economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Thelen, K. (2004) How Institutions Evolve. The Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
True, J. L. et al. (1999) Punctuated-equilibrium Theory: Explaining Stability and Change in American Policy making. In Sabatier P. (ed.), Theories of the policy process. Oxford: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Van Houtven, L. (2002) Governance of the IMF. Decision making, Institutional Oversight, Transparency and Accountability. Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Walter, A. (2008) Governing Finance: East Asia's Adoption of International Standards. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Woods, N. (2000) The Challenge of Good Governance for the IMF and the World Bank Themselves. World Development 28(5): 823–841.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woods, N.Lombardi, D. (2006) Uneven patterns of governance: how developing countries are represented in the IMF. Review of International Political Economy 13(3): 480–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar