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The Pressman-Wildavsky Paradox: Four Addenda or Why Models Based on Probability Theory Can Predict Implementation Success and Suggest Useful Tactical Advice for Implementers

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 November 2008

Elinor R. Bowen
Elinor R. Bowen
Affiliation:
Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Illinoisat Chicago Circle
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Abstract

Pressman and Wildavsky's Implementation occupies center stage in the developing literature about policy implementation, in part because of the analogy they drew between implementation processes and the multiplicative model from probability theory. This paper takes the relevance of probability theory further and considers the additive model from probability theory and conditional probabilities as well as the multiplicative model. This expanded coverage of probability theorems (1) leads to markedly increased optimism about the likelihood of successful implementation, (2) encompasses empirically reasonable tactics such as persistence, packaging of clearances, engineering bandwagons and policy reduction, and (3) generates advice to hopeful implementers – some of it non-obvious.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 2 , Issue 1 , February 1982 , pp. 1 - 21
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1982

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