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Electoral Revolution or Democratic Alternation?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

María Victoria Murillo ,
Virginia Oliveros  and
Milan Vaishnav
María Victoria Murillo
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Virginia Oliveros
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Milan Vaishnav
Affiliation:
Columbia University
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Abstract

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Over the past few years, a burgeoning literature on Latin American politics has developed, focusing on explanations for the renewed success of the left in the region. Building on electoral trends and public opinion analysis, we argue that the region is experiencing the normalization of democratic politics rather than a backlash or a revolution. Furthermore, we believe that electoral support for the left reflects the disenchantment of voters with underperforming right-wing governments. Using a unique data set covering eighteen countries in the region, our statistical analyses demonstrate that retrospective voting provides a powerful explanation of the recent electoral success of the left in Latin America. Thus, the central implication of our argument is that electoral accountability is still the primary mechanism of controlling the executive in the region's young democracies.

Resumo

Resumo

En los últimos años, una parte importante de la literatura sobre América Latina se ha enfocado en el estudio del éxito electoral de la izquierda en la región. A partir del análisis de tendencias electorales y de opinión pública, nuestro argumento principal es que este fenómeno regional refleja una normalización de la política democrática más que una “revolución” de izquierda o una reacción a las reformas neoliberales de los años 90. En particular, el apoyo electoral a la izquierda refleja el desencanto de los votantes con gobiernos de derecha cuyo desempeño económico no ha sido satisfactorio. Usando una base de datos original que incluye dieciocho países de la región, el análisis estadístico muestra que el reciente éxito de la izquierda en América Latina se explica fundamentalmente por el voto económico retrospectivo de los ciudadanos. En función de estos resultados, se puede concluir que la sanción (accountability) electoral de los votantes es el mecanismo fundamental de control del ejecutivo en las jóvenes democracias de la región.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 45 , Issue 3 , 2010 , pp. 87 - 114
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 by the Latin American Studies Association

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