Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-x5gtn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-10T21:16:06.139Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Who Votes for Chavismo?: Class Voting in Hugo Chávez's Venezuela

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2022

Noam Lupu
Noam Lupu*
Affiliation:
Princeton University
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

The conventional wisdom about contemporary Venezuelan politics is that class voting has become commonplace, with the poor doggedly supporting Hugo Chávez while the rich oppose him. This class voting is considered both a new feature of Venezuelan politics and a puzzle given the multiclass bases of prior populist leaders in Latin America. I clarify the concept of class voting by distinguishing between monotonic and nonmonotonic associations between class and vote choice. Using survey data, I find that only in Chávez's first election in 1998 was class voting monotonic. Since then, class voting in Venezuela has been nonmonotonic, with the very wealthiest Venezuelans disproportionately voting against Chávez. At the same time, Chávez's support appears to have increased most among the middle sectors of the income distribution, not the poorest. Finally, I find that whatever effect Chávez may have had on overall turnout, his efforts have not disproportionately mobilized poor voters.

Resumen

Resumen

El consenso de opinión sobre la política contemporánea venezolana es que el voto de clase se ha instalado, con los pobres apoyando sostenidamente a Hugo Chávez mientras los ricos se oponen. Éste voto de clase es visto a su vez como una nueva característica de la política venezolana y una paradoja ya que los líderes populistas anteriores en Latinoamérica tuvieron bases policlasistas. En éste trabajo aclaro el concepto del voto de clase, distinguiendo entre asociaciones monotónicas y no-monotónicas entre clase y voto. Usando datos de encuestas, encuentro que el voto de clase fue monotónico únicamente en la primera elección de Chávez en 1998. Desde entonces, el voto de clase en Venezuela ha sido no-monotónico, con los venezolanos desproporcionadamente más ricos votando en contra de Chávez. A su vez, el apoyo de Chávez parece haberse incrementado más entre las clases medias que entre los pobres. Finalmente, encuentro que cualquiera que sea el efecto que Chávez haya tenido sobre la asistencia a votar (turnout) en general, sus esfuerzos no parecen haber movilizado a los desproporcionadamente pobres.

Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Research Review , Volume 45 , Issue 1 , 2010 , pp. 7 - 32
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 by the Latin American Studies Association

Footnotes

I am grateful to Nick Carnes, Thad Dunning, Marty Gilens, Kanta Murali, Sue Stokes, Deborah Yashar, and the anonymous LARR reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. I also thank José Molina, Friedrich Welsch and the Population Database at the Universidad Simon Bolívar, and the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) for generously sharing their data. The William Ebenstein Student Research Fund, Program in Latin American Studies, Princeton University, funded field research for this study. Unreported results are available on the author's website.

References

Achen, Christopher H. 2005 “Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They Belong.” Conflict Management and Peace Studies 22 (4): 327–339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alcántara Sáez, Manuel, and Díez, Fatima García, eds. 2008 Elecciones y política en América Latina. Mexico City: Instituto Electoral del Estado de México, Sociedad Mexicana de Estudios Electorales, and Porrúa.Google Scholar
Alford, Robert R. 1962 “A Suggested Index of the Association of Social Class and Voting.” Public Opinion Quarterly 26 (3): 417–425.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baloyra, Enrique A., and Martz, John D. 1979 Political Attitudes in Venezuela: Societal Cleavages and Political Opinion. Austin: University of Texas Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartle, John 1998 “Left-Right Position Matters, But Does Social Class? Causal Models of the 1992 British General Election.” British Journal of Political Science 28 (3): 501–529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Booth, John A., and Seligson, Mitchell A. 2009 The Legitimacy Puzzle in Latin America: Political Support and Democracy in Eight Nations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canache, Damarys 2004 “Urban Poor and Political Order.” In The Unraveling of Representative Democracy in Venezuela, edited by McCoy, Jennifer L. and Myers, David, 33–49. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Cannon, Barry 2008 “Class/Race Polarisation in Venezuela and the Electoral Success of Hugo Chávez: A Break with the Past or the Song Remains the Same?” Third World Quarterly 29 (4): 731–748.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Castañeda, Jorge G. 2006 “Latin America's Left Turn.” Foreign Affairs 85 (3): 28–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Terry Nichols 2003 “The Breakdown of Class Politics.” The American Sociologist 34 (1-2): 17–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cleary, Matthew 2006 “Explaining the Left's Resurgence.” Journal of Democracy 17 (4): 35–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conniff, Michael L. 1982 “Introduction: Toward a Comparative Definition of Populism.” In Latin American Populism in Comparative Perspective, edited by Conniff, Michael L., 3–30. Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael 1994 Strong Parties and Lame Ducks: Presidential Partyarchy and Factionalism in Venezuela. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davila, Luis Ricardo 2000 “The Rise and Fall and Rise of Populism in Venezuela.” Bulletin of Latin American Research 19 (2): 223–238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Economist 2002 “Poor, but Fervently Loyal: Why an Inept President Is Still Surprisingly Popular,” August 29.Google Scholar
The Economist 2007 “Challenging Chávez-for-Life: A New Kind of Opposition,” November 15.Google Scholar
Ellner, Steve 2003 “The Contrasting Variants of the Populism of Hugo Chávez and Alberto Fujimori.” Journal of Latin American Studies 35 (1): 139–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellner, Steve 2008 Rethinking Venezuelan Politics: Class, Conflict, and the Chávez Phenomenon. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey 2000 “The Continued Significance of Class Voting.” Annual Review of Political Science 3:401–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filmer, Deon, and Pritchett, Lant H. 2001 “Estimating Wealth Effects without Expenditure Data—or Tears: An Application to Educational Enrollments in States of India.” Demography 38 (1): 115–132.Google ScholarPubMed
Handelman, Howard 2000 The Challenge of Third World Development Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Hawkins, Kirk 2003 “Populism in Venezuela: The Rise of Chavismo.” Third World Quarterly 24 (6): 1137–1160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, Oliver 2009a “Explaining the Rise of Class Politics in Venezuela.” Bulletin of Latin American Research 28 (2): 185–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, Oliver 2009b “Economic crisis, party system change, and the dynamics of class voting in Venezuela, 1973–2003.” Electoral Studies 28 (3): 467–479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hellinger, Daniel 2003 “Political Overview: The Breakdown of Puntofijismo and the Rise of Chavismo.” In Venezuelan Politics in the Chávez Era: Class, Polarization, and Conflict, edited by Ellner, Steve and Hellinger, Daniel, 27–53. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Hellinger, Daniel 2005 “When ‘No’ Means ‘Yes to Revolution’: Electoral Politics in Bolivarian Venezuela.” Latin American Perspectives 32 (3): 8–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsieh, Chang-Tai, Ortega, Daniel, Miguel, Edward, and Rodríguez, Francisco 2008 “The Price of Political Opposition: Evidence from Venezuela's Maisanta.” Unpublished manuscript, Wesleyan University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hunter, Wendy 2007 “The Normalization of an Anomaly: The Worker's Party in Brazil.” World Politics 59 (3): 440–475.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iranzo, Consuelo, and Richter, Jacqueline 2005 “La relación Estado/sindicatos en Venezuela (1999–2005).” In Venezuela Visión Plural: Una mirada desde el CENDES, 2:653–684. Caracas: Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo.Google Scholar
King, Gary 1997 A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Levine, Daniel H. 1973 Conflict and Political Change in Venezuela. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Roberts, Kenneth M., eds. 2009 Latin America's Left Turn: Causes and Implications. Unpublished manuscript, Cornell University.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin 1981 Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics. Garden City, NY: Doubleday.Google Scholar
López Maya, Margarita 2003 “Hugo Chávez Frías: His Movement and His Presidency.” In Venezuelan Politics in the Chávez Era: Class, Polarization, and Conflict, edited by Ellner, Steve and Hellinger, Daniel, 73–91. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
López Maya, Margarita, and Lander, Luis E. 2007 “Venezuela: Las elecciones presidenciales de 2006: Hacia el socialismo del siglo XXI?” Cuadernos del CENDES 24 (64): 1–21.Google Scholar
Lupu, Noam, and Stokes, Susan C. 2009 “The Social Bases of Political Parties in Argentina, 1912–2003.” Latin American Research Review 44 (1): 58–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Scully, Timothy R., eds. 1995 Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Manza, Jeff, Hout, Michael, and Brooks, Clem 1995 “Class Voting in Capitalist Democracies since World War II: Dealignment, Realignment, or Trendless Fluctuation?” Annual Review of Sociology 21:137–162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Márquez, Patricia 2003 “The Hugo Chávez Phenomenon: What Do ‘the People’ Think?” In Venezuelan Politics in the Chávez Era: Class, Polarization, and Conflict, edited by Ellner, Steve and Hellinger, Daniel, 197–213. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
McCoy, Jennifer L. 1999 “Chávez and the End of ‘Partyarchy’ in Venezuela.” Journal of Democracy 10 (3): 64–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCoy, Jennifer L. 2004 “From Representative to Participatory Democracy? Regime Transformation in Venezuela.” In The Unraveling of Representative Democracy in Venezuela, edited by McCoy, Jennifer L. and Myers, David, 263–295. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Molina, José E. 2002 “The Presidential and Parliamentary Elections of the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela: Change and Continuity (1998–2000).” Bulletin of Latin American Research 21 (2): 219–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Molina, José E., and Baralt, Carmen Pérez 1994 “Venezuela: Un nuevo sistema de partidos? Las elecciones de 1993.” Cuestiones Políticas 13:63–90.Google Scholar
Molina, José E., and Baralt, Carmen Pérez 1998 “Evolution of the Party System in Venezuela, 1946–1993.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 40 (2): 1–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Molina, José E., and Baralt, Carmen Pérez 2004 “Radical Change at the Ballot Box: Causes and Consequences of Electoral Behavior in Venezuela's 2000 Elections.” Latin American Politics and Society 46 (1): 103–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, Jana 2007 “Partisanship during the Collapse of Venezuela's Party System.” Latin American Research Review 42 (1): 78–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ocando, Casto 2009 “Caracas Neighborhood Petare is Voice of Chávez's Poor Opposition,” Miami Herald, February 22.Google Scholar
Penfold-Becerra, Michael 2007 “Clientelism and Social Funds: Evidence from Chávez's Misiones.” Latin American Politics and Society 49 (4): 63–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pereira Almao, Valia 1998 “Venezuelan Loyalty toward Democracy in the Critical 1990s.” In Reinventing Legitimacy: Democracy and Political Change in Venezuela, edited by Canache, Damarys and Kulisheck, Michael R., 139–148. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Portes, Alejandro, and Hoffman, Kelly 2003 “Latin American Class Structures: Their Composition and Change during the Neoliberal Era.” Latin American Research Review 38 (1): 41–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam 1985 Capitalism and Social Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rey, Juan Carlos 1998 “Corruption and Political Illegitimacy in Venezuelan Democracy.” In Reinventing Legitimacy: Democracy and Political Change in Venezuela, edited by Canache, Damarys and Kulisheck, Michael R., 113–135. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 1996 “Neoliberalism and the Transformation of Populism in Latin America: The Peruvian Case.” World Politics 48 (1): 82–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2003a “Social Correlates of Party System Demise and Populist Resurgence in Venezuela.” Latin American Politics and Society 45 (3): 35–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2003b “Social Polarization and the Populist Resurgence in Venezuela.” In Venezuelan Politics in the Chávez Era: Class, Polarization, and Conflict, edited by Ellner, Steve and Hellinger, Daniel, 55–72. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Rodríguez, Francisco 2008 “An Empty Revolution: The Unfulfilled Promises of Hugo Chávez.” Foreign Affairs 87 (2): 49–62.Google Scholar
Seligson, Mitchell A. 2007 “The Rise of Populism and the Left in Latin America.” Journal of Democracy 18 (3): 81–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shanks, J. Merrill, and Miller, Warren E. 1990 “Policy Direction and Performance Evaluation: Complementary Explanations of the Reagan Elections.” British Journal of Political Science 20 (2): 143–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, Susan C. 2009 “Globalization and the Left in Latin America.” Unpublished manuscript, Yale University.Google Scholar
Sylvia, Ronald D., and Danopoulos, Constantine P. 2003 “The Chávez Phenomenon: Political Change in Venezuela.” Third World Quarterly 24 (1): 63–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisbrot, Mark 2008 “An Empty Research Agenda: The Creation of Myths about Contemporary Venezuela.” Washington, D.C.: Center for Economic and Policy Research.Google Scholar
Weyland, Kurt 2003 “Economic Voting Reconsidered: Crisis and Charisma in the Election of Hugo Chávez.” Comparative Political Studies 36 (7): 822–848.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zúquete, José Pedro 2008 “The Missionary Politics of Hugo Chávez.” Latin American Politics and Society 50 (1): 91–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar