Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-2pzkn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-30T02:19:07.939Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Probability of Particular Events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2022

R. G. Swinburne
R. G. Swinburne*
Affiliation:
University of Hull
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

The paper investigates what are the proper procedures for calculating the probability on certain evidence of a particular object e having a property, Q, e.g. of Eclipse winning the Derby. Let ‘α‘ denote the conjunction of properties known to be possessed by e, and P(Q/α) the probability of an object which is α being Q. One view is that the probability of e being Q is given by the best confirmed value of P(Q/α). This view is shown not to be generally true, but to provide a useful approximation in many cases. Then given that we have information about the observed frequencies of Q among objects having one or more of the properties whose conjunction forms α, the paper shows how to establish which value of P(Q/α) is the best confirmed one.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 38 , Issue 3 , September 1971 , pp. 327 - 343
Copyright
Copyright © 1971 by The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

[1] Achinstein, P., “Variety and Analogy in Confirmation Theory,” Philosophy of Science, vol. 30, 1963, pp. 207–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[2] Anderson, J. L. and Dow, J. B., Actuarial Statistics Volume II: Construction of Mortality and Other Tables, Cambridge, 1948.Google Scholar
[3] Ayer, A. J., “On the Probability of Particular Events,” in The Concept of a Person, London, 1963.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[4] Baillie, P., “That Confirmation may yet be a Probability,” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, vol. 20, 1969, pp. 41–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[5] Braithwaite, R. B., Scientific Explanation, Cambridge, 1953.Google Scholar
[6] Carnap, R., Logical Foundations of Probability, 2nd edit., London, 1962.Google Scholar
[7] Carnap, R., The Continuum of Inductive Methods, Chicago, 1952.Google Scholar
[8] Cohen, L. J., “What has Confirmation to do with Probabilities?”, Mind, vol. 75, 1966, pp. 463–481.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[9] Ezekiel, M. and Fox, K. A., Methods of Correlation and Regression Analysis, 3rd edit., New York, 1959.Google Scholar
[10] Hesse, M., “Analogy and Confirmation Theory,” Philosophy of Science, vol. 31, 1964, pp. 319–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[11] Keynes, J. M., A Treatise on Probability, London, 1921.Google Scholar
[12] Kneale, W. C., Probability and Induction, Oxford, 1949.Google Scholar
[13] Laplace, P. S. de, Théorie Analytique des Probabilités, Oeuvres, vol. 7, Paris, 1847.Google Scholar
[14] Von Mises, R., Probability, Statistics, and Truth, 2nd edit., London, 1957.Google Scholar
[15] Pap, A., An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, New York, 1962.Google Scholar
[16] Popper, K. R., The Logic of Scientific Discovery, London, 1959.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[17] Reichenbach, H., The Theory of Probability, Berkeley and Los Angeles, 1949.Google Scholar
[18] Salmon, W. C., The Foundations of Scientific Inference, Pittsburgh, 1967.CrossRefGoogle Scholar