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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 06 April 2005
The forecasting model I wrote about in the October 2004 issue of PS (Holbrook 2004) is best described as a referendum model. It incorporates presidential approval (Gallup polls averaged from June through August), a measure of aggregate satisfaction with personal finances weighted by the tone of economic news (averaged from June through August), and a dummy variable coded “1” for years in which the incumbent party had held the White House for at least two consecutive terms and “0” for all other years. The first two variables are intended to capture the political and economic performance of the incumbent administration, while the latter (borrowed from Abramowitz 1988) is based on the idea that it may be easier to convince voters that it is “time for a change” if the incumbent party has held the White House for at least two consecutive terms.
