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PROXY FORECASTS: A WORKING STRATEGY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

Michael S. Lewis-Beck  and
Charles Tien
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
University of Iowa
Charles Tien
Affiliation:
Hunter College and The Graduate Center, CUNY
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Extract

Our Proxy Model of presidential election forecasting declared, from data issued six months before the November contest, that Obama would garner 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. [See the model release in our Monkey Cage blog-post (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012a) on September 18, 2012, and in the October issue of PS (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012b).] Thus, that forecast called the correct winner, with a point estimate error of only 0.9 percentage points.

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2013 , pp. 39 - 40
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

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References

Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Martini, Nicholas, and Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 2012. “The Nature of Economic Perceptions in Mass Publics.” Paper presented at The Shambaugh Conference on the “New Economic Voter,” Department of Political Science, University of Iowa.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2012a. “Nowcasts For and Against Obama: Final Models Collide.” September 18. http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/09/18/potpourri-88/ (November 7, 2012).Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2012b. “Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 625–29.Google Scholar
Tien, Charles, Nadeau, Richard, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2012. “Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay?” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 591–95.Google Scholar