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Millennial-scale increase in winter precipitation in the southern Rocky Mountains during the Common Era

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 February 2020

Meredith C. Parish Open the ORCID record for Meredith C. Parish [Opens in a new window] ,
W. John Calder  and
Bryan N. Shuman
Meredith C. Parish*
Affiliation:
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming82071, USA
W. John Calder
Affiliation:
Department of Botany University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming82071, USA
Bryan N. Shuman
Affiliation:
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming82071, USA
*
*Corresponding author e-mail address: meredith_parish@brown.edu (M.C. Parish).
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Abstract

We employed the modern analog technique to quantitatively reconstruct temperature and precipitation over the past 2500 yr based on fossil pollen records from six high-elevation lakes in northern Colorado. Reconstructed annual temperatures for the study area did not deviate significantly from modern over the past 2500 yr despite hemispheric expressions of Medieval Climate Anomaly warmth and Little Ice Age cooling. Annual precipitation, however, shifted from lower than modern rates from 2500 to 1000 cal yr BP to higher than modern rates after 1000 cal yr BP, a greater than 100 mm increase in precipitation. Winter precipitation accounts for the majority of the change in annual precipitation, while summer precipitation rates did not change significantly over the past 2500 yr. The large change in winter precipitation rates from the first to second millennium of the Common Era is inferred from a shift in fossil pollen assemblages dominated by subalpine conifers, which have southern sites as modern analogs, to assemblages representing open subalpine vegetation with abundant Artemisia spp. (sagebrush), which have more northern modern analogs. The change helps to explain regional increases in lake levels and shifts in some isotopic and tree-ring data sets, highlighting the risk of large reductions in snowpack and water supplies in the Intermountain West.

Keywords

modern analogue techniquepaleoclimateCommon Erawinter precipitationsnowtemperaturemillennial-scale variabilityColoradosouthern Rocky Mountains
Type
Research Article
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 94 , March 2020 , pp. 1 - 13
Copyright
Copyright © University of Washington. Published by Cambridge University Press, 2020

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