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Probabilistic set-up and the search for probability information in quasi-naturalistic decision tasks

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 July 2001

Oswald Huber
Affiliation:
Universitat Fribourg, Psychologisches Institut, Route de Faucigny 2, CH-1701 Fribourg, Switzerland. Tel: int + 26 + 300 76 37. Fax: int + 26 + 300 97 12. e-mail: oswald.huber@unifr.ch
Siegfried Macho
Affiliation:
University of Fribourg, Switzerland
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Abstract

The influence of the probabilistic set-up (i.e., formal aspects of the presented probability information) and of the task domain on the active search for probability information in quasi-natural risky decision tasks was investigated. In each of four tasks (domains: business, medicine, social, epidemic control) 72 subjects chose between a risky alternative and one without risk. There were three conditions in relation to the probabilistic set-up: (a) In the single condition the decision concerned a single case (e.g., one person). In the two multiple conditions (b and c) the decision was for many cases (e.g., 100 persons). In (b) the decision maker had to make an either-or decision (same alternative for all cases). In (c) the subject could assign a proportion of cases to one alternative and the rest to the other one. While the probabilistic set-up had no effect on the search for probabilistic information, the task domain had a strong impact.

Type
Technical article
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press, 2001

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