Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-75dct Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-31T19:53:13.928Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Reformation or exodus: Assessing the future of the Euro

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2023

Martin Watts*
Affiliation:
The University of Newcastle, Australia
Timothy Sharpe
Affiliation:
Nottingham Trent University, UK
James Juniper
Affiliation:
The University of Newcastle, Australia
*
Martin Watts, Centre of Full Employment and Equity and Newcastle Business School, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Newcastle, NSW 2308, Australia. Email: martin.watts@newcastle.edu.au

Abstract

Eurozone economies were the most adversely affected by the Global Financial Crisis, with forecast macroeconomic outcomes still highly uncertain. This article argues first that the Eurozone policy framework can be viewed as neo-liberalism overlaid with policy constraints associated with a mis-specified Optimum Currency Area. We are critical of this framework since it is incompatible with the policy sovereignty that is experienced, if not utilised, by sovereign economies such as the USA, UK and Australia. Second, recent and proposed policy reforms which generally lie within the constraints of the Eurozone framework are examined. We conclude that these policies are piecemeal and fail to restore policy sovereignty, which ultimately requires that member countries exit the Eurozone. Key issues associated with such an exit are briefly discussed.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allard, C, Brooks, PK, Bluedorn, JC, et al . (2013) Toward a fiscal union for the Euro area. IMF Staff Discussion Note 9, SDN/13/09, September. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amato, M, Fantacci, L (2012) The End of Finance. Cambridge: Polity Press.Google Scholar
Athanassiou, P (2009) Withdrawal and expulsion from the EU and EMU: some reflections. ECB Legal Working Paper 10, December. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank.Google Scholar
Auerback, M (2012) A(nother) proposal for saving the Euro zone: guest post by Marshall Auerback. Available at: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/06/28/another-proposal-for-saving-the-euro-zone-guest-post-by-marshall-auerback/ ( accessed 2 November 2013).Google Scholar
Beck, T (2013) Banking union for Europe – where do we stand? VoxEU.org, 23 October. Available at: http://www.voxeu.org/article/banking-union-europe-where-do-we-stand (accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Beck, T, Gros, D, Schoenmaker, D (2012) Banking union instead of Eurobonds – disentangling sovereign and banking crises. VoxEU.org, 24 June. Available at: http://www.voxeu.org/article/banking-union-instead-eurobonds-disentangling-sovereign-and-banking-crises ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Constancio, V (2011) Challenges to monetary policy in 2012. Speech at the 26th International Conference on Interest Rates, Frankfurt, 8 December. Basel: Bank for International Settlements. Available at: http://www.bis.org/review/r111215b.pdf (accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
De Grauwe, P, Moesen, W (2009) Gains for all: a proposal for a common Eurobond. CEPS Studies, 3 April. Centre for European Policy Studies. Available at: http://aei.pitt.edu/11091/1/1823%5B1%5D.pdf ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Delors, J, Andriessen, F, Boyer, M, et al . (1989) Report on Economic and Monetary Union in the European Community. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Commission.Google Scholar
Delors, J . Chair, Committee for the Study of Economic and Monetary Union (1989) Report on economic and Monetary union in the European Community. 17 April. Available at: http://aei.pitt.edu/1007/1/monetary_delors.pdf ( accessed 24 July 2014).Google Scholar
Delpla, J, Von Weizsacker, J (2010) The blue bond proposal. Bruegel Policy Briefs, 6 May. Available at: http://www.bruegel.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/403-the-blue-bond-proposal/ ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Enderlein, H, Bofinger, P, Boone, L, et al, et al . (2012) Completing the Euro: a road map towards fiscal union in Europe. Report of the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Group, June. Notre Europe. Available at: http://www.notre-europe.eu/media/completingtheeuroreportpadoa-schioppagroupnejune2012.pdf?pdf=ok ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
European Central Bank (ECB) (2013) Banking supervision. Available at: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ssm/html/index.en.html ( accessed 5 November 2013).Google Scholar
European Commission (1977) Report of the study group on the role of public finance in European integration studies: economic and fiscal series. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/emu_history/documentation/chapter8/19770401en73macdougallrepvol1.pdf ( accessed 4 November 2013).Google Scholar
European Commission (2011) Green paper on the feasibility of introducing stability bonds. MEMO/11/820. Brussels: European Commission.Google Scholar
European Council (2012) Towards a genuine economic and monetary union. Available at: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/132809.pdf ( accessed 14 November 2013).Google Scholar
European Parliament (2013) On the European Central Bank annual report for 2012. Available at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/document/activities/cont/201311/20131113ATT74398/20131113ATT74398EN.pdf ( accessed 14 November 2013).Google Scholar
Feldstein, MS (2011) The Euro and European economic conditions. NBER Working Paper 17617. Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Felipe, J, Kumar, U (2011) Unit labor costs in the Eurozone: the competitiveness debate again. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper 651. Annandale-on-Hudson, NY: Levy Economics Institute.Google Scholar
Fitoussi, JP, Saraceno, F (2013) European economic governance: the Berlin-Washington consensus. Cambridge Journal of Economics 37(3): 479496.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, M (1997) The Euro: monetary unity to political disunity? Project Syndicate, 29 August. Available at: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-euro–monetary-unity-to-political-disunity ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Ingham, G (2013) Revisiting the credit theory of money and trust. In: Pixley, J (ed.) New Perspectives on Emotions in Finance. London: Routledge, pp. 121139.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2013a) World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities, Risks. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund Publications.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2013b) World Economic Outlook: Transitions and Tensions. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund Publications.Google Scholar
Juniper, J, Sharpe, TP, Watts, MJ (2014) Modern Monetary Theory: Contributions and critics. Revised version of paper presented at the 1st World Keynes Conference, Izmir, Turkey, 26–29 June, 2013.Google Scholar
Keynes, JM (1976 [1930]) A Treatise on Money, 2 vols. New York: Harcourt Brace and Company.Google Scholar
Knapp, GF (1985 [1924/1973]) The State Theory of Mone.Clifton, NY: Augustus M. Kelley.Google Scholar
Liikanen, E (Chair) (2012) Report of the high-level expert group on reforming the structure of the EU banking sector. 2 October. Brussels: The European Union.Google Scholar
McCracken, PW, Carli, G, Giersch, H, Marjolin, R, Matthews, R, Karaosmanaglu, A, Komiya, R, Lindbeck, A (1977) Towards Full Employment and Price Stability. A Report to the OECD by a Group of Independent Experts. Paris:OECD Publications.Google Scholar
Mazier, J, Petit, P (2013) In search of sustainable paths for the Eurozone in the troubled post-2008 world. Cambridge Journal of Economics 37(3): 513532.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Minsky, HP (1986) Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Mitchell, WF (1998) The buffer stock employment model and the NAIRU: The path to full employment. Journal of Economic Issues 32(2): 547555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, WF (2012a) Flawed macroeconomic models lead to erroneous conclusions. Billy Blog, 21 March. Available at: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=18739 ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Mitchell, WF (2012b) A Greek exit would not cause havoc. Billy Blog, 22 October. Available at: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=21418 ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Mitchell, WF (2013) Currency sovereignty is what matters. Billy Blog, 22 October. Available at: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25790 ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Mundell, RA (1961) A theory of optimum currency areas. The American Economic Review 51(4): 657665.Google Scholar
Nordvig, J, Firoozye, N (2012) Rethinking the European Monetary Union. Wolfs on Economics Prize 2012 – final submission, June. Available at: http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/images/WolfsonPrize/nordvig%20-%20rethinking%20european%20monetary%20union.pdf ( accessed 22 January 2014).Google Scholar
Onaran, Ö, Galanis, G (2012) Is Aggregate Demand Wage-Led or Profit-Led? National and Global Effects (International Labour Organization Conditions of Work and Employment Series 40). Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1994) The OECD Jobs Study: Facts, Analysis, Strategies. Paris: OECD Publications.Google Scholar
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2006) Employment Outlook: Boosting Jobs and Incomes. Paris: OECD Publications.Google Scholar
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2009) Beyond the crisis: medium term challenges relating to potential output, unemployment and fiscal positions. In: OECD (ed.) Economic Outlook 85. Paris: OECD Publications, pp. 211241. Available at: http://www.oecd.org/economy/outlook/43117806.pdf ( accessed 24 July 2014).Google Scholar
Sharpe, TP (2013) Institutional arrangements and public debt threshold limits. International Review of Applied Economics 27(6): 707728.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sharpe, TP, Watts, MJ (2012) Policy advice in crisis: how inter-governmental organisations have responded to the GFC. Journal of Australian Political Economy 69: 103133.Google Scholar
Sharpe, TP, Watts, MJ (2013) Unconventional monetary policy in the UK: a modern money critique. Economic Issues 18(2): 4163.Google Scholar
Simonazzi, A, Ginzburg, A, Nocella, G (2013) Economic relations between Germany and southern Europe. Cambridge Journal of Economics 37: 653675.Google Scholar
Toporowski, J (2013) International credit, financial integration, and the Euro. Cambridge Journal of Economics 37(30): 571584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Treaty on the European Union (TEU) (Consolidated Version 2012 [1992]) Available: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:12012M/TXT (accessed 1 June 2014).Google Scholar
Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) (Consolidated Version 2012 [1958]) Available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:12012E/TXT (accessed 1 June 2014).Google Scholar
Variant Perception (2012) A primer on the Euro breakup: default, exit and devaluation as the optimal solution. Available at: http://www.variantperception.com/sites/default/files/uploads/vp-primer-euro-breakup-sample.pdf ( accessed 15 November 2013).Google Scholar
Vetter, S (2013) Do all roads lead to fiscal union? Options for deeper fiscal integration in the Eurozone. Deutsche Bank/EU Monitor, 11 April. Available at: http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000304104.pdf ( accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Watt, A (2006) Assessing the reassessment of the OECD jobs strategy: eppur si muove? European Economic and Employment Policy Brief 2. European Trade Union Institute. Available at: http://www.etui.org/Publications2/Policy-Briefs/European-Economic-and-Employment-Policy/Assessing-the-reassessment-of-the-OECD-jobs-Strategy-eppur-si-muove (accessed 24 May 2014).Google Scholar
Watts, MJ (2010) The role of the OECD in the design of macroeconomic and labour market policy: reflections of a heterodox economist. Centre of Full Employment and Equity Working Paper no. 10-02, November. Newcastle, NSW, Australia: The University of Newcastle.Google Scholar
Watts, MJ, Sharpe, TP (2013) Immutable laws of debt dynamics. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 36(1): 5984.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Werner, P (1970) Report to the Council and the Commission on the realisation by stages of Economic and Monetary Union in the Community. Bulletin of the European Communities, Supplement 11/1970. Luxembourg: Council – Commission of the European Communities.Google Scholar
Werner, P (1970) Interim Report on the Establishment by Stages of Economic and Monetary Union – ‘Werner Report’ May. 9. 504/II/70-F. Bulletin of the European Communities, Supplement 7/1970. Available at: http://aei.pitt.edu/1003/ ( accessed 24 July 2014).Google Scholar
Williamson, J (1990) What Washington means by policy reform. In: Williamson, J (ed.) Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. Available at: http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/paper.cfm?researchid=486 ( accessed 24 July 2014).Google Scholar
Wray, LR (2009) The rise and fall of money manager capitalism: a Minskian approach. Cambridge Journal of Economics 33(4): 807828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wray, LR (2014) From the state theory of money to modern money theory: an alternative to economic orthodoxy. Working Paper no. 792. New York: The Levy Economics Institute.Google Scholar