2 results
325 Predictors of Substance Use Initiation by Late Childhood: Findings from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study
- Part of
- ReJoyce Green, Anna E. Kirkland, Brittney D. Browning, Brittany E. Bryant, Alexis M. Garcia, Rachel L. Tomko, Kevin M. Gray, Louise Mewton, Bethany J. Wolf, Pamela L. Ferguson, Lindsay M. Squeglia
-
- Journal:
- Journal of Clinical and Translational Science / Volume 7 / Issue s1 / April 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 24 April 2023, p. 97
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Open access
- Export citation
-
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Adolescence represents a critical period for substance use initiation. Various factors may contribute to trying a sip or single puff of a substance, that could lead to more frequent use. However, less is known about how predictors from multiple domains converge to impact risk for general substance use initiation. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study is a multi-site longitudinal study following youth into early adulthood. The present study included 7,644 ABCD children who reported no lifetime substance use (including any experimentation) at baseline (ages 9–10). Our primary aim was to use a random forest classification model to predict binary substance use initiation, defined as trying any non-prescribed substance (e.g., alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, non-prescribed medications), during a 2-year follow-up after baseline. A total of 402 variables from the following categories were examined as predictors: demographics, peer substance use and availability, mental and physical health, culture and environment, biospecimens, neurocognitive functioning, and structural neuroimaging variables. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Over a two-year follow-up, 751 (9.8%) of substance-naïve children reported trying a substance by age 11. The most common substance was alcohol, followed by cannabis and tobacco. Mean Decrease Accuracy (MDA) values were used to assess the relative importance of each predictor. The overall accuracy of the model in accurately predicting group membership (no substance use initiation vs. substance use initiation) was 57.66%. Of the top 5 predictors, the most important predictor was intent to use alcohol (MDA = .002). The following top predictors were structural neuroimaging variables: volume and surface area of right lateral occipital lobe (MDA = .0009 and .0008, respectively), surface area of right inferior temporal lobe (MDA = .0007), and surface area of left superior frontal lobe (MDA = .0007). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: A combination of intent to use alcohol and structural neuroimaging indices were among the top predictors of substance use initiation. Understanding predictors of early substance use experimentation is important for identifying at-risk youth that may require targeted intervention approaches.
Contributors
-
- By Jane E. Adcock, Yahya Aghakhani, A. Anand, Eva Andermann, Frederick Andermann, Alexis Arzimanoglou, Sandrine Aubert, Nadia Bahi-Buisson, Carman Barba, Agatino Battaglia, Geneviève Bernard, Nadir E. Bharucha, Laurence A. Bindoff, William Bingaman, Francesca Bisulli, Thomas P. Bleck, Stewart G. Boyd, Andreas Brunklaus, Harry Bulstrode, Jorge G. Burneo, Laura Canafoglia, Laura Cantonetti, Roberto H. Caraballo, Fernando Cendes, Kevin E. Chapman, Patrick Chauvel, Richard F. M. Chin, H. T. Chong, Fahmida A. Chowdhury, Catherine J. Chu-Shore, Rolando Cimaz, Andrew J. Cole, Bernard Dan, Geoffrey Dean, Alessio De Ciantis, Fernando De Paolis, Rolando F. Del Maestro, Irissa M. Devine, Carlo Di Bonaventura, Concezio Di Rocco, Henry B. Dinsdale, Maria Alice Donati, François Dubeau, Michael Duchowny, Olivier Dulac, Monika Eisermann, Brent Elliott, Bernt A. Engelsen, Kevin Farrell, Natalio Fejerman, Rosalie E. Ferner, Silvana Franceschetti, Robert Friedlander, Antonio Gambardella, Hector H. Garcia, Serena Gasperini, Lorenzo Genitori, Gioia Gioi, Flavio Giordano, Leif Gjerstad, Daniel G. Glaze, Howard P. Goodkin, Sidney M. Gospe, Andrea Grassi, William P. Gray, Renzo Guerrini, Marie-Christine Guiot, William Harkness, Andrew G. Herzog, Linda Huh, Margaret J. Jackson, Thomas S. Jacques, Anna C. Jansen, Sigmund Jenssen, Michael R. Johnson, Dorothy Jones-Davis, Reetta Kälviäinen, Peter W. Kaplan, John F. Kerrigan, Autumn Marie Klein, Matthias Koepp, Edwin H. Kolodny, Kandan Kulandaivel, Ruben I. Kuzniecky, Ahmed Lary, Yolanda Lau, Anna-Elina Lehesjoki, Maria K. Lehtinen, Holger Lerche, Michael P. T. Lunn, Snezana Maljevic, Mark R. Manford, Carla Marini, Bindu Menon, Giulia Milioli, Eli M. Mizrahi, Manish Modi, Márcia Elisabete Morita, Manuel Murie-Fernandez, Vivek Nambiar, Lina Nashef, Vincent Navarro, Aidan Neligan, Ruth E. Nemire, Charles R. J. C. Newton, John O'Donavan, Hirokazu Oguni, Teiichi Onuma, Andre Palmini, Eleni Panagiotakaki, Pasquale Parisi, Elena Parrini, Liborio Parrino, Ignacio Pascual-Castroviejo, M. Scott Perry, Perrine Plouin, Charles E. Polkey, Suresh S. Pujar, Karthik Rajasekaran, R. Eugene Ramsey, Rahul Rathakrishnan, Roberta H. Raven, Guy M. Rémillard, David Rosenblatt, M. Elizabeth Ross, Abdulrahman Sabbagh, P. Satishchandra, Swati Sathe, Ingrid E. Scheffer, Philip A. Schwartzkroin, Rod C. Scott, Frédéric Sedel, Michelle J. Shapiro, Elliott H. Sherr, Michael Shevell, Simon D. Shorvon, Adrian M. Siegel, Gagandeep Singh, S. Sinha, Barbara Spacca, Waney Squier, Carl E. Stafstrom, Bernhard J. Steinhoff, Andrea Taddio, Gianpiero Tamburrini, C. T. Tan, Raymond Y. L. Tan, Erik Taubøll, Robert W. Teasell, Mario Giovanni Terzano, Federica Teutonico, Suzanne A. Tharin, Elizabeth A. Thiele, Pierre Thomas, Paolo Tinuper, Dorothée Kasteleijn-Nolst Trenité, Sumeet Vadera, Pierangelo Veggiotti, Jean-Pierre Vignal, J. M. Walshe, Elizabeth J. Waterhouse, David Watkins, Ruth E. Williams, Yue-Hua Zhang, Benjamin Zifkin, Sameer M. Zuberi
- Edited by Simon D. Shorvon, Frederick Andermann, Renzo Guerrini
-
- Book:
- The Causes of Epilepsy
- Published online:
- 05 March 2012
- Print publication:
- 14 April 2011, pp ix-xvi
-
- Chapter
- Export citation