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Contributors
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- By Mitchell Aboulafia, Frederick Adams, Marilyn McCord Adams, Robert M. Adams, Laird Addis, James W. Allard, David Allison, William P. Alston, Karl Ameriks, C. Anthony Anderson, David Leech Anderson, Lanier Anderson, Roger Ariew, David Armstrong, Denis G. Arnold, E. J. Ashworth, Margaret Atherton, Robin Attfield, Bruce Aune, Edward Wilson Averill, Jody Azzouni, Kent Bach, Andrew Bailey, Lynne Rudder Baker, Thomas R. Baldwin, Jon Barwise, George Bealer, William Bechtel, Lawrence C. Becker, Mark A. Bedau, Ernst Behler, José A. Benardete, Ermanno Bencivenga, Jan Berg, Michael Bergmann, Robert L. Bernasconi, Sven Bernecker, Bernard Berofsky, Rod Bertolet, Charles J. Beyer, Christian Beyer, Joseph Bien, Joseph Bien, Peg Birmingham, Ivan Boh, James Bohman, Daniel Bonevac, Laurence BonJour, William J. Bouwsma, Raymond D. Bradley, Myles Brand, Richard B. Brandt, Michael E. Bratman, Stephen E. Braude, Daniel Breazeale, Angela Breitenbach, Jason Bridges, David O. Brink, Gordon G. Brittan, Justin Broackes, Dan W. Brock, Aaron Bronfman, Jeffrey E. Brower, Bartosz Brozek, Anthony Brueckner, Jeffrey Bub, Lara Buchak, Otavio Bueno, Ann E. Bumpus, Robert W. Burch, John Burgess, Arthur W. Burks, Panayot Butchvarov, Robert E. Butts, Marina Bykova, Patrick Byrne, David Carr, Noël Carroll, Edward S. Casey, Victor Caston, Victor Caston, Albert Casullo, Robert L. Causey, Alan K. L. Chan, Ruth Chang, Deen K. Chatterjee, Andrew Chignell, Roderick M. Chisholm, Kelly J. Clark, E. J. Coffman, Robin Collins, Brian P. Copenhaver, John Corcoran, John Cottingham, Roger Crisp, Frederick J. Crosson, Antonio S. Cua, Phillip D. Cummins, Martin Curd, Adam Cureton, Andrew Cutrofello, Stephen Darwall, Paul Sheldon Davies, Wayne A. Davis, Timothy Joseph Day, Claudio de Almeida, Mario De Caro, Mario De Caro, John Deigh, C. F. Delaney, Daniel C. Dennett, Michael R. DePaul, Michael Detlefsen, Daniel Trent Devereux, Philip E. Devine, John M. Dillon, Martin C. Dillon, Robert DiSalle, Mary Domski, Alan Donagan, Paul Draper, Fred Dretske, Mircea Dumitru, Wilhelm Dupré, Gerald Dworkin, John Earman, Ellery Eells, Catherine Z. Elgin, Berent Enç, Ronald P. Endicott, Edward Erwin, John Etchemendy, C. Stephen Evans, Susan L. Feagin, Solomon Feferman, Richard Feldman, Arthur Fine, Maurice A. Finocchiaro, William FitzPatrick, Richard E. Flathman, Gvozden Flego, Richard Foley, Graeme Forbes, Rainer Forst, Malcolm R. Forster, Daniel Fouke, Patrick Francken, Samuel Freeman, Elizabeth Fricker, Miranda Fricker, Michael Friedman, Michael Fuerstein, Richard A. Fumerton, Alan Gabbey, Pieranna Garavaso, Daniel Garber, Jorge L. A. Garcia, Robert K. Garcia, Don Garrett, Philip Gasper, Gerald Gaus, Berys Gaut, Bernard Gert, Roger F. Gibson, Cody Gilmore, Carl Ginet, Alan H. Goldman, Alvin I. Goldman, Alfonso Gömez-Lobo, Lenn E. Goodman, Robert M. Gordon, Stefan Gosepath, Jorge J. E. Gracia, Daniel W. Graham, George A. Graham, Peter J. Graham, Richard E. Grandy, I. Grattan-Guinness, John Greco, Philip T. Grier, Nicholas Griffin, Nicholas Griffin, David A. Griffiths, Paul J. Griffiths, Stephen R. Grimm, Charles L. Griswold, Charles B. Guignon, Pete A. Y. Gunter, Dimitri Gutas, Gary Gutting, Paul Guyer, Kwame Gyekye, Oscar A. Haac, Raul Hakli, Raul Hakli, Michael Hallett, Edward C. Halper, Jean Hampton, R. James Hankinson, K. R. Hanley, Russell Hardin, Robert M. Harnish, William Harper, David Harrah, Kevin Hart, Ali Hasan, William Hasker, John Haugeland, Roger Hausheer, William Heald, Peter Heath, Richard Heck, John F. Heil, Vincent F. Hendricks, Stephen Hetherington, Francis Heylighen, Kathleen Marie Higgins, Risto Hilpinen, Harold T. Hodes, Joshua Hoffman, Alan Holland, Robert L. Holmes, Richard Holton, Brad W. Hooker, Terence E. Horgan, Tamara Horowitz, Paul Horwich, Vittorio Hösle, Paul Hoβfeld, Daniel Howard-Snyder, Frances Howard-Snyder, Anne Hudson, Deal W. Hudson, Carl A. Huffman, David L. Hull, Patricia Huntington, Thomas Hurka, Paul Hurley, Rosalind Hursthouse, Guillermo Hurtado, Ronald E. Hustwit, Sarah Hutton, Jonathan Jenkins Ichikawa, Harry A. Ide, David Ingram, Philip J. Ivanhoe, Alfred L. Ivry, Frank Jackson, Dale Jacquette, Joseph Jedwab, Richard Jeffrey, David Alan Johnson, Edward Johnson, Mark D. Jordan, Richard Joyce, Hwa Yol Jung, Robert Hillary Kane, Tomis Kapitan, Jacquelyn Ann K. Kegley, James A. Keller, Ralph Kennedy, Sergei Khoruzhii, Jaegwon Kim, Yersu Kim, Nathan L. King, Patricia Kitcher, Peter D. Klein, E. D. Klemke, Virginia Klenk, George L. Kline, Christian Klotz, Simo Knuuttila, Joseph J. Kockelmans, Konstantin Kolenda, Sebastian Tomasz Kołodziejczyk, Isaac Kramnick, Richard Kraut, Fred Kroon, Manfred Kuehn, Steven T. Kuhn, Henry E. Kyburg, John Lachs, Jennifer Lackey, Stephen E. Lahey, Andrea Lavazza, Thomas H. Leahey, Joo Heung Lee, Keith Lehrer, Dorothy Leland, Noah M. Lemos, Ernest LePore, Sarah-Jane Leslie, Isaac Levi, Andrew Levine, Alan E. Lewis, Daniel E. Little, Shu-hsien Liu, Shu-hsien Liu, Alan K. L. Chan, Brian Loar, Lawrence B. Lombard, John Longeway, Dominic McIver Lopes, Michael J. Loux, E. J. Lowe, Steven Luper, Eugene C. Luschei, William G. Lycan, David Lyons, David Macarthur, Danielle Macbeth, Scott MacDonald, Jacob L. Mackey, Louis H. Mackey, Penelope Mackie, Edward H. Madden, Penelope Maddy, G. B. Madison, Bernd Magnus, Pekka Mäkelä, Rudolf A. Makkreel, David Manley, William E. Mann (W.E.M.), Vladimir Marchenkov, Peter Markie, Jean-Pierre Marquis, Ausonio Marras, Mike W. Martin, A. P. Martinich, William L. McBride, David McCabe, Storrs McCall, Hugh J. McCann, Robert N. McCauley, John J. McDermott, Sarah McGrath, Ralph McInerny, Daniel J. McKaughan, Thomas McKay, Michael McKinsey, Brian P. McLaughlin, Ernan McMullin, Anthonie Meijers, Jack W. Meiland, William Jason Melanson, Alfred R. Mele, Joseph R. Mendola, Christopher Menzel, Michael J. Meyer, Christian B. Miller, David W. Miller, Peter Millican, Robert N. Minor, Phillip Mitsis, James A. Montmarquet, Michael S. Moore, Tim Moore, Benjamin Morison, Donald R. Morrison, Stephen J. Morse, Paul K. Moser, Alexander P. D. Mourelatos, Ian Mueller, James Bernard Murphy, Mark C. Murphy, Steven Nadler, Jan Narveson, Alan Nelson, Jerome Neu, Samuel Newlands, Kai Nielsen, Ilkka Niiniluoto, Carlos G. Noreña, Calvin G. Normore, David Fate Norton, Nikolaj Nottelmann, Donald Nute, David S. Oderberg, Steve Odin, Michael O’Rourke, Willard G. Oxtoby, Heinz Paetzold, George S. Pappas, Anthony J. Parel, Lydia Patton, R. P. Peerenboom, Francis Jeffry Pelletier, Adriaan T. Peperzak, Derk Pereboom, Jaroslav Peregrin, Glen Pettigrove, Philip Pettit, Edmund L. Pincoffs, Andrew Pinsent, Robert B. Pippin, Alvin Plantinga, Louis P. Pojman, Richard H. Popkin, John F. Post, Carl J. Posy, William J. Prior, Richard Purtill, Michael Quante, Philip L. Quinn, Philip L. Quinn, Elizabeth S. Radcliffe, Diana Raffman, Gerard Raulet, Stephen L. Read, Andrews Reath, Andrew Reisner, Nicholas Rescher, Henry S. Richardson, Robert C. Richardson, Thomas Ricketts, Wayne D. Riggs, Mark Roberts, Robert C. Roberts, Luke Robinson, Alexander Rosenberg, Gary Rosenkranz, Bernice Glatzer Rosenthal, Adina L. Roskies, William L. Rowe, T. M. Rudavsky, Michael Ruse, Bruce Russell, Lilly-Marlene Russow, Dan Ryder, R. M. Sainsbury, Joseph Salerno, Nathan Salmon, Wesley C. Salmon, Constantine Sandis, David H. Sanford, Marco Santambrogio, David Sapire, Ruth A. Saunders, Geoffrey Sayre-McCord, Charles Sayward, James P. Scanlan, Richard Schacht, Tamar Schapiro, Frederick F. Schmitt, Jerome B. Schneewind, Calvin O. Schrag, Alan D. Schrift, George F. Schumm, Jean-Loup Seban, David N. Sedley, Kenneth Seeskin, Krister Segerberg, Charlene Haddock Seigfried, Dennis M. Senchuk, James F. Sennett, William Lad Sessions, Stewart Shapiro, Tommie Shelby, Donald W. Sherburne, Christopher Shields, Roger A. Shiner, Sydney Shoemaker, Robert K. Shope, Kwong-loi Shun, Wilfried Sieg, A. John Simmons, Robert L. Simon, Marcus G. Singer, Georgette Sinkler, Walter Sinnott-Armstrong, Matti T. Sintonen, Lawrence Sklar, Brian Skyrms, Robert C. Sleigh, Michael Anthony Slote, Hans Sluga, Barry Smith, Michael Smith, Robin Smith, Robert Sokolowski, Robert C. Solomon, Marta Soniewicka, Philip Soper, Ernest Sosa, Nicholas Southwood, Paul Vincent Spade, T. L. S. Sprigge, Eric O. Springsted, George J. Stack, Rebecca Stangl, Jason Stanley, Florian Steinberger, Sören Stenlund, Christopher Stephens, James P. Sterba, Josef Stern, Matthias Steup, M. A. Stewart, Leopold Stubenberg, Edith Dudley Sulla, Frederick Suppe, Jere Paul Surber, David George Sussman, Sigrún Svavarsdóttir, Zeno G. Swijtink, Richard Swinburne, Charles C. Taliaferro, Robert B. Talisse, John Tasioulas, Paul Teller, Larry S. Temkin, Mark Textor, H. S. Thayer, Peter Thielke, Alan Thomas, Amie L. Thomasson, Katherine Thomson-Jones, Joshua C. Thurow, Vzalerie Tiberius, Terrence N. Tice, Paul Tidman, Mark C. Timmons, William Tolhurst, James E. Tomberlin, Rosemarie Tong, Lawrence Torcello, Kelly Trogdon, J. D. Trout, Robert E. Tully, Raimo Tuomela, John Turri, Martin M. Tweedale, Thomas Uebel, Jennifer Uleman, James Van Cleve, Harry van der Linden, Peter van Inwagen, Bryan W. Van Norden, René van Woudenberg, Donald Phillip Verene, Samantha Vice, Thomas Vinci, Donald Wayne Viney, Barbara Von Eckardt, Peter B. M. Vranas, Steven J. Wagner, William J. Wainwright, Paul E. Walker, Robert E. Wall, Craig Walton, Douglas Walton, Eric Watkins, Richard A. Watson, Michael V. Wedin, Rudolph H. Weingartner, Paul Weirich, Paul J. Weithman, Carl Wellman, Howard Wettstein, Samuel C. Wheeler, Stephen A. White, Jennifer Whiting, Edward R. Wierenga, Michael Williams, Fred Wilson, W. Kent Wilson, Kenneth P. Winkler, John F. Wippel, Jan Woleński, Allan B. Wolter, Nicholas P. Wolterstorff, Rega Wood, W. Jay Wood, Paul Woodruff, Alison Wylie, Gideon Yaffe, Takashi Yagisawa, Yutaka Yamamoto, Keith E. Yandell, Xiaomei Yang, Dean Zimmerman, Günter Zoller, Catherine Zuckert, Michael Zuckert, Jack A. Zupko (J.A.Z.)
- Edited by Robert Audi, University of Notre Dame, Indiana
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- Book:
- The Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy
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- 05 August 2015
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- 27 April 2015, pp ix-xxx
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List of contributors
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- By Nazia M. Alam, Enrico Alleva, Hiroyuki Arakawa, Robert H. Benno, Fred G. Biddle, D. Caroline Blanchard, Robert J. Blanchard, Richard J. Bodnar, John D. Boughter, Igor Branchi, Richard E. Brown, Abel Bult-Ito, Jonathan M. Cachat, Peter R. Canavello, Francesca Cirulli, Giovanni Colacicco, John C. Crabbe, Jacqueline N. Crawley, Wim E. Crusio, Sietse F. de Boer, Ekrem Dere, Brenda A. Eales, Robert T. Gerlai, Howard K. Gershenfeld, Thomas J. Gould, Martin E. Hahn, Peter C. Hart, Andrew Holmes, Joseph P. Huston, Allan V. Kalueff, Benjamin Kest, Robert Lalonde, Sarah R. Lewis-Levy, Hans-Peter Lipp, Sheree F. Logue, Stephen C. Maxson, Jeffrey S. Mogil, Douglas A. Monks, Dennis L. Murphy, Lee Niel, Timothy P. O’Leary, Susanna Pietropaolo, Peter K.D. Pilz, Claudia F. Plappert, Bernard Possidente, Glen T. Prusky, Laura Ricceri, Heather Schellinck, Herbert Schwegler, Burton Slotnick, Frans Sluyter, Shad B. Smith, Catherine Strazielle, Douglas Wahlsten, Hans Welzl, James F. Willott, David P. Wolfer, Armin Zlomuzica
- Edited by Wim E. Crusio, Université de Bordeaux, Frans Sluyter, Robert T. Gerlai, University of Toronto, Susanna Pietropaolo, Université de Bordeaux
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- Behavioral Genetics of the Mouse
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- 05 May 2013
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- 25 April 2013, pp ix-xii
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2 - Forecast verification
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
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- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp 19-74
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Summary
Introduction
Forecast verification has had a long, colorful, and occasionally controversial history. The first substantial developments in verification methods were occasioned by the publication of a paper by J.P. Finley (Finley, 1884), in which he summarized some results of an experimental tornado forecasting program. As a measure of forecasting success, Finley calculated the sum of the percentages of correct forecasts of tornadoes and no tornadoes (multiplied by 100) and reported a percentage correct value of 96.6%. Finley's paper attracted the attention of several individuals (e.g., Doolittle, 1885; Gilbert, 1884; Peirce, 1884), and (inter alia) it was pointed out that always forecasting no tornadoes would have led to a percentage correct value of 98.2%! These and other individuals offered various criticisms of Finley's method of verification and proposed alternative measures of overall forecasting performance, most of which are still in use today. This signal event in the history of forecast verification — dubbed the Finley affair — is described in detail in a recent paper (Murphy, 1996).
The 100+ years since the Finley affair have witnessed the development of a relatively wide variety of methods and measures tailored to particular verification problems. Moreover, considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to studies related to the properties of various methods/measures. Space limitations preclude any attempt to review these developments here. Readers interested in the history of forecast verification, or the numerous methods and measures formulated since 1884, are referred to Brier and Allen (1951), Meglis (1960), Murphy and Daan (1985), Stanski, Wilson, and Burrows (1989), and Wilks (1995), as well as the references cited therein. Some of the methods developed during this period will be introduced in subsequent sections of the chapter.
Frontmatter
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Book:
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
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- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp i-vi
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Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, Allan H. Murphy
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- Published online:
- 27 October 2009
- Print publication:
- 13 June 1997
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Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Contributors
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Book:
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
- Published online:
- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp xiii-xvi
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Contents
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Book:
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
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- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp vii-viii
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6 - Forecast value: prototype decision-making models
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
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- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp 183-218
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Summary
Introduction
In this chapter, theoretical relationships between the scientific quality and economic value of imperfect weather forecasts are considered. Prototype decision-making models are treated that, while relatively simple in structure, still capture some of the essential features (e.g., the “dynamics”) of real-world situations. The emphasis is on analytical results that can be obtained concerning the structure of the optimal policy and the shape of the “quality/value curve.” It is anticipated that knowledge of such theoretical properties for prototype models will provide insight into analogous properties for real-world decision-making problems that are inherently much more complex.
The prospects for increases in the quality of weather forecasts in the future have been discussed in Chapter 1 of this volume, thereby providing a partial justification for the hypothetical increases in forecast quality that are assumed in the present chapter. Various aspects of forecast quality (e.g., bias and accuracy) have been described in Chapter 2. A simplified form of weather information is treated here in which a one-dimensional measure of quality can be defined that is synonymous with the concept of sufficiency (also described in Chapter 2). The Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to assessing the economic value of imperfect information is adopted, an approach that has been introduced in Chapter 3. Analytical results obtained for prototype decision-making models are compared with those for real-world case studies that have also employed this prescriptive approach to real-world decision-making problems (reviewed in Chapter 4). Reasons for the underutilization (or nonoptimal use) of existing weather forecasts have been outlined in Chapter 5, and some explanations for such behavior based on theoretical considerations are presented here.
Preface
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
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- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp ix-xii
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Summary
The topic of this book brings to mind an oft-quoted adage: everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it. Despite this adage, the focus of this volume is not the weather itself, or weather forecasting per se, or even the various economic impacts of weather, but rather the way in which weather forecasts can be utilized to mitigate these impacts. The viewpoint adopted here is that information about the weather has value only insofar as it affects human behavior. Despite their inherent imperfections, weather forecasts have the potential to influence behavior. To draw an analogy, even quite small but real shifts in the odds can produce attractive returns when playing games of chance.
It is indeed true that “talk” about the weather abounds. Relatively large expenditures are devoted to both observational systems and research programs intended to enhance weather forecasting capability, as well as to operational activities related to the production and distribution of forecasts to a variety of users. Moreover, many of the substantial economic impacts of various weather events are well documented. Somewhat surprisingly, however, relatively little attention has been devoted to determining the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems or the incremental benefits of improvements in such systems.
This lack of attention may partly reflect the fact that assessing the economic value of weather forecasts is a challenging problem; among other things, it is an inherently multidisciplinary endeavor. Besides the field of meteorology, the disciplines include economics (a monetary value is attached to a publicly available good), psychology (human behavior under uncertainty influences forecast use and value), and statistics as well as closely related fields of management science and operations research …
Index
- Edited by Richard W. Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, Allan H. Murphy, Oregon State University
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- Book:
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
- Published online:
- 27 October 2009
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- 13 June 1997, pp 219-222
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