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4 - Economic Growth, Human Development, and Welfare
- from Socio-Economic Transformations
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- By Purnamita Dasgupta, Ottmar Edenhofer, Adriana Mercedes Avendano Amezquita, Antonio Bento, Simon Caney, David De la Croix, Augustin Fosu, Michael Jakob, Marianne Saam, Kristin Shrader-Frechette, John Weyant, Liangzhi You, Gian Carlo Delgado-Ramos, Marcel J. Dorsch, Christian Flachsland, David Klenert, Robert Lempert, Justin Leroux, Kai Lessmann, Junguo Liu, Linus Mattauch, Charles Perrings, Gregor Schwerhoff, Kristin Seyboth, Jan Steckel, Jessica Strefler, Kristin Seyboth
- Edited by International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP)
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- Book:
- Rethinking Society for the 21st Century
- Published online:
- 05 July 2018
- Print publication:
- 19 July 2018, pp 141-186
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Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature
- John Weyant
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- Journal:
- Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis / Volume 5 / Issue 3 / December 2014
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 27 May 2015, pp. 377-409
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- Article
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This paper reviews applications of benefit-cost analysis (BCA) in climate policy assessment at the US national and global scales. Two different but related major application types are addressed. First there are global-scale analyses that focus on calculating optimal global carbon emissions trajectories and carbon prices that maximize global welfare. The second application is the use of the same tools to compute the social cost of carbon (SCC) for use in US regulatory processes. The SCC is defined as the climate damages attributable to an increase of one metric ton of carbon dioxide emissions above a baseline emissions trajectory that assumes no new climate policies. The paper describes the three main quantitative models that have been used in the optimal carbon policy and SCC calculations and then summarizes the range of results that have been produced using them. The results span an extremely broad range (up to an order of magnitude) across modeling platforms as well as across the plausible ranges of input assumptions to a single model. This broad range of results sets the stage for a discussion of the five key challenges that face BCA practitioners participating in the national and global climate change policy analysis arenas: (1) including the possibility of catastrophic outcomes; (2) factoring in equity and income distribution considerations; (3) addressing intertemporal discounting and intergenerational equity; (4) projecting baseline demographics, technological change, and policies inside and outside the energy sector; and (5) characterizing the full set of uncertainties to be dealt with and designing a decision-making process that updates and adapts new scientific and economic information into that process in a timely and productive manner. The paper closes by describing how the BCA models have been useful in climate policy discussions to date despite the uncertainties that pervade the results that have been produced.
Chapter 15 - Energy Supply Systems
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- By Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Stan Bull, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Hans Larsen, Technical University, Vladimir Likhachev, Russian Academy of Sciences, Koji Nagano, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Hans Nilsson, FourFact, Seppo Vuori, VTT Technical Research Centre, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative, Li Zhou, Tsinghua University, Xiliang Zhang, Tsinghua University, John Weyant, Stanford University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 1131-1172
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Summary
Executive Summary
A sustainable future depends on more efficient use of the Earth's abundant energy resources in order to meet the rapidly increasing demand for energy services as well as to provide broader access to everyone. In 2005 the overall efficiency of the energy system from primary energy to useful energy was only about 34%. Owing to diverse geographic inequities in both sources and people, supply cannot always meet the demand where needed. Energy pathways from source through conversion, transmission, storage, and distribution to end-users are complicated and presently consist of numerous discrete pathways that differ widely for each energy source and carrier. These include solid fuels, liquid fuels, gaseous fuels (including hydrogen), electricity and heat. Aging equipment, congested networks, and extreme demands complicate this picture in many countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Development of new infrastructure in both non-OECD and OECD countries will lock-in future dependence on conventional or non-conventional energy sources. This chapter aims to assist decision-makers by providing up-todate knowledge on the full range of energy pathways, their management, and operation. Energy systems to achieve a sustainable future should be made much more flexible in order to deal with societal needs and the probable deployment of technologies not yet commercially available (such as smart appliances, electric vehicles, fuel cells, and carbon capture and storage). Technology and policy solutions are available for supporting more energy for sustainable development, but in order to meet the transition necessary to avoid unacceptable events such as social unrest and/or climate change driven temperature rise, they should be put in place rapidly, and done in concert with each other.
Chapter 16 - Transitions in Energy Systems
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- By Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology, Ines Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University, Tira Foran, Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation, Mahesh Patankar, Independent Energy Sector Consultant, Anand Rao, Indian Institute of Technology, Rob Raven, Eindhoven University of Technology, Constantine Samaras, Rand Corporation, Adrian Smith, University of Sussex, Geert Verbong, Eindhoven University of Technology, Rahul Walawalkar, Customized Energy Solutions, Riddhi Panse, Indian Institute of Technology, Saumya Ranjan, Indian Institute of Technology, Neha Umarji, Indian Institute of Technology, John Weyant, Stanford University
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 1173-1202
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Summary
Executive Summary
This chapter examines the theme of transitions in energy systems. It assesses the literature that explores the genesis, growth, and management of transitions. This literature provides a multi-level framework for large-scale, transformative change in technology systems, involving a hierarchy of changes from experiments to niches to technology regimes.
The chapter also covers specific innovation systems and experiments in the energy sector that may have the potential for larger impact and could lead to new niches or technology regimes. These experiments include technology-driven innovations in generation and end-use; system-level innovations that could reconfigure existing systems; and business model innovations centered on energy service delivery. Experiments in generation include hybrid systems, where multiple primary energy sources help address issues such as intermittency. Experiments in end-use include technology options for the simultaneous delivery of multiple energy services, or energy and non-energy services. System-level experiments include innovations in storage, distributed generation, and the facilitation of energy efficiency by effectively monetizing savings in energy use.
In some of these experiments, technology can lead to changing relationships between actors or changing roles for actors; for example, the process of consumers becoming producers is seen in small-scale biogas projects. These changing relationships present both challenges and opportunities for influencing the transition process. The chapter also discusses policy and institutional issues that affect transitions. Finally, it is seen that although technological research, development, and innovation are important, a wide-scale, equitable, and accessible transformation to energy systems for sustainable development needs to be tackled as a socio-political issue.