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21 - Benefits and Costs of the Population and Demography Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda
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- By Hans-Peter Kohler, Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, University of Pennsylvania, USA, Jere R. Behrman, W. R. Kenan, Jr. Professor of Economics and Director of Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, USA
- Edited by Bjorn Lomborg, Copenhagen Business School
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- Book:
- Prioritizing Development
- Published online:
- 30 May 2018
- Print publication:
- 07 June 2018, pp 375-394
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Summary
Background
Prioritizing the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda on Population and Demography requires a recognition that national demographic trajectories are currently more diverse than in the middle and late twentieth century. Wealthy countries of Europe, Asia, and the Americas face rapid population aging, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen. And many of the world's poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to face premature mortality, high fertility, and often unmet need for contraception.
The Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics (UNFPA, UNDESA, UN-HABITAT, IOM, 2013; thereafter GTC-PD Report) highlights three central aspects of how population dynamics affect the post-2015 development agenda:
Population dynamics are at the center of the main development challenges of the twenty-first century and must therefore be addressed in the post-2015 development agenda.
Mega population trends – population growth, population aging, migration, and urbanization – present both important developmental challenges and opportunities that have direct and indirect implications for social, economic, and environmental development.
Demography is not destiny. Rights-based and gender-responsive policies can address and harness population dynamics.
The GTC-PD Report then groups the specific policy options in four thematic priority areas: high fertility and population growth, low fertility and population aging, migration and human mobility, and urbanization. Closely related recommendations were adopted as part of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Beyond 2014 Global Report (UNFPA, 2014), which is the culmination of a landmark UN review of progress, gaps, challenges and emerging issues in relation to the ICPD Programme of Action. These two reports are important because they are likely to shape the international agenda on population.
The goal of this chapter is to discuss the post- 2015 development agenda in the area of Population and Demography, focusing primarily on aspects of population size, age structure, and geographic distribution. It is important also to highlight that “population quality,” including human capital such as health and education, is an important further aspect of population dynamics that is essential for addressing the challenges of future population changes and for realizing the benefits of population dynamics for social, economic, and environmental development (Behrman and Kohler, 2014).
Chapter 21 - Benefits and Costs of the Population and Demography Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda
- Edited by Bjorn Lomborg, Copenhagen Business School
-
- Book:
- Prioritizing Development
- Published online:
- 30 May 2018
- Print publication:
- 07 June 2018, pp 375-398
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
-
Summary
Prioritizing the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda on Population and Demography requires a recognition that national demographic trajectories are currently more diverse than in the middle and late 20th century. Wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population aging, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen. And many of the world’s poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to face premature mortality, high fertility and often unmet need for contraception. The goal of this chapter is to discuss the Post-2015 Development Agenda in the area of Population and Demography, focusing primarily on aspects of population size, age structure and geographic distribution. Within population and demography, the priorities that have the highest benefit-cost ratios are: ● Achieving universal access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services by 2030, and eliminating unmet need for modern contraception by 2040. ● A reduction of barriers to migration within low- and middle-income countries, as well as between low- and middle-income countries and high-income countries.
SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF LOW FERTILITY IN BRAZIL
- Helena Cruz Castanheira, Hans-Peter Kohler
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- Journal:
- Journal of Biosocial Science / Volume 49 / Issue S1 / November 2017
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 21 November 2017, pp. S131-S155
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An increasing number of developing countries are experiencing below replacement fertility rates. Although the factors associated with low fertility in developed countries have been widely explored in the literature, studies of low fertility in middle- and low-income countries continue to be rare. To help fill this gap, Brazil was used as a case study to assess whether human development, gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work are associated with the likelihood of married or cohabiting women to have a child. For this purpose, multilevel logistic regressions were estimated using the 1991, 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Demographic Censuses. It was found that human development was negatively associated with fertility in the three periods analysed. Gender equality and the ability of mothers with young children to work were positively associated with the odds of having higher order births in Brazil in 2000 and 2010. In 1991, these variables were not associated with higher order births, and gender equality was negatively associated with first births. The positive association found in 2000 and 2010 may constitute a reversal of the relationship that in all likelihood prevailed earlier in the demographic transition when gender equality was most likely negatively correlated with fertility levels.
9 - Population growth
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- By Kohler Hans-Peter, University of Pennsylvania
- Edited by Bjørn Lomborg
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- Book:
- Global Problems, Smart Solutions
- Published online:
- 05 June 2014
- Print publication:
- 14 November 2013, pp 510-596
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Summary
The challenge of “population growth”
While the majority of the population is now estimated to live in regions with below-replacement fertility, high fertility, poor reproductive health outcomes, and relatively rapid population growth remain an important concern in several low-income countries. International and national spending devoted to family planning, however, has declined significantly in recent years. Recent research has brought about a revision in the understanding of the interactions between population growth and economic development, as well as the effects of family planning programs in terms of reduced fertility, improved reproductive health outcomes, and other lifecycle and intergenerational consequences. This chapter discusses recent evidence about the benefits of family planning programs and the interactions between population growth and developments, and it attempts to estimate BCRs for increased spending on family planning.
The demographic transition: an unfinished success story
The demographic transition in developing countries during the second half of the twentieth century is widely considered a “success story.” Between 1950–1955 and 2005–2010, the life expectancy in less-developed countries increased from 42.3 to 66 years (a total gain of 23.7 years, or an average annual gain of 0.43 years), and in least-developed countries it increased from 37.2 to 56.9 (a total gain of 19.7 years, or an average annual gain of 0.37 years). Fertility rates declined from a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 6.1 in less-developed countries in 1950–1955 to 2.7 children per woman in 2005–2010 (an annual decline of about 0.062), and TFR levels declined from 6.5 to 4.4 children per woman in least-developed countries during this time period (an annual decline of about 0.038). Global annual population growth rates declined from a peak of 2.07 percent in 1965–1970 to 1.16 percent in 2005–2010 (Figure 9.1). The growth rate in less-developed countries also peaked during 1965–1970 at about 2.5 percent per year, while growth rates in least-developed countries peaked during 1990–1995 at 2.75 percent. By 2005–2010, the growth rates had declined to 1.33 percent and 2.21 percent, respectively. The majority of the world population is now estimated to live in regions with below-replacement fertility (TFR ≤ 2.1) (Wilson, 2004), and the global TFR is projected to reach 2.1 – the conventional, albeit globally not ne-cessarily correct marker for replacement level fertility (Espenshade et al., 2003; Kohler and Ortega, 2002) – by 2070 (UN median projection, UN Population Division, 2010c).
Feasibility of automotive radar at frequencies beyond 100 GHz
- Mike Köhler, Jürgen Hasch, Hans Ludwig Blöcher, Lorenz-Peter Schmidt
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- Journal:
- International Journal of Microwave and Wireless Technologies / Volume 5 / Issue 1 / February 2013
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 21 December 2012, pp. 49-54
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Radar sensors are used widely in modern driver assistance systems. Available sensors nowadays often operate in the 77 GHz band and can accurately provide distance, velocity, and angle information about remote objects. Increasing the operation frequency allows improving the angular resolution and accuracy. In this paper, the technical feasibility to move the operation frequency beyond 100 GHz is discussed, by investigating dielectric properties of radome materials, the attenuation of rain and atmosphere, radar cross-section behavior, active circuits technology, and frequency regulation issues. Moreover, a miniaturized antenna at 150 GHz is presented to demonstrate the possibilities of high-resolution radar for cars.
1 - Sexual transmission of HIV
- Edited by Bjørn Lomborg, Copenhagen Business School
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- Book:
- RethinkHIV
- Published online:
- 05 November 2012
- Print publication:
- 18 October 2012, pp 11-73
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Summary
The purpose of RethinkHIV is to identify and highlight the most cost-effective responses to HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with economic analyses of the benefits and costs of specific interventions in six categories of responses to HIV/AIDS. This is the assessment paper on the first of the six topics: prevention of sexual transmission of HIV.
As is well-known, sexual infections are a major source of the spread of HIV/AIDS generally (UNAIDS 2010), and are thought to be by far the most important source of the spread of HIV/AIDS in SSA, though there also are other sources of spread of the disease, such as maternal-child infection and the use of contaminated blood or needles. Sexual interactions may directly result in the transmission of HIV, and they also may increase the vulnerability to the HIV virus through transmitting other sexually transmitted diseases. Interventions to reduce sexual infections broadly speaking can work through reducing the frequency of such interactions or through reducing the risks of sexual infection per sexual encounter. Selection of partners, including with respect to age and risk behavior of the partner, condom use or other risk reduction strategies with a specific partner, and biomedical interventions that affect HIV transmission can all affect HIV infection risks. Interventions have been proposed to work through both of these channels, though with greater emphasis probably on the latter.