3 results
Ten new insights in climate science 2023
- Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Carol Farbotko, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Oliver Geden, Nicolas Gruber, Luke J. Harrington, Judith Hauck, Zeke Hausfather, Sophie Hebden, Aniek Hebinck, Saleemul Huq, Matthias Huss, M. Laurice P. Jamero, Sirkku Juhola, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Shuaib Lwasa, Bishawjit Mallick, Maria Martin, Steven McGreevy, Paula Mirazo, Aditi Mukherji, Greg Muttitt, Gregory F. Nemet, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Tom Oliver, Ben Orlove, Nadia S. Ouedraogo, Prabir K. Patra, Mark Pelling, Laura M. Pereira, Åsa Persson, Julia Pongratz, Anjal Prakash, Anja Rammig, Colin Raymond, Aaron Redman, Cristobal Reveco, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, David R. Rounce, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Odirilwe Selomane, Gregor Semieniuk, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Vartika Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Youba Sokona, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Vikki Thompson, Gregory Trencher, Kees van der Geest, Saskia E. Werners, Thea Wübbelmann, Nico Wunderling, Jiabo Yin, Kirsten Zickfeld, Jakob Zscheischler
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 7 / 2024
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2023, e19
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Non-technical summary
We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems.
Technical summaryThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
Social media summaryWe highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts.
Extensive protected area coverage and an updated global population estimate for the Endangered Madagascar Serpent-eagle Eutriorchis astur
- Luke J. Sutton, Armand Benjara, Lily-Arison Rene de Roland, Russell Thorstrom, Christopher J. W. McClure
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- Journal:
- Bird Conservation International / Volume 33 / 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 27 February 2023, e48
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Knowledge gaps regarding distribution, habitat associations, and population size for rare and threatened range-restricted taxa lead to uncertainty in directing conservation action. Quantifying range metrics and species–habitat associations using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with remote-sensing habitat data can overcome these setbacks by establishing baseline estimates for biological parameters critical for conservation assessments. Area of Habitat (AOH) is a new range metric recently developed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. AOH seeks to quantify inferred habitat within a species’ range to inform extinction risk assessments. Here, we used SDMs correlating occurrences with remote-sensing covariates to calculate a first estimate of AOH for the Endangered Madagascar Serpent-eagle Eutriorchis astur, and then updated additional IUCN range metrics and the current global population estimate. From these baselines we then conducted a gap analysis assessing protected area coverage. Our continuous SDM had robust predictive performance (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.835) and when reclassified to a binary model estimated an AOH = 30,121 km2, 13% less than the current IUCN range map. We estimated a global population of 533 mature individuals derived from the Madagascar Serpent-eagle AOH metric, which was within current IUCN population estimates. The current protected area network covered 95% of AOH, with the binary model identifying three additional key habitat areas as new protected area designations to fully protect Madagascar Serpent-eagle habitat. Our results demonstrated that correlating presence-only occurrences with remote-sensing habitat covariates can fill knowledge gaps useful for informing conservation action. Applying this spatial information to conservation planning would ensure almost full protected area coverage for this endangered raptor. For tropical forest habitat specialists, we recommend that potential predictors derived from remote sensing, such as vegetation indices and biophysical measures, are considered as covariates, along with other variables including climate and topography.
Distribution and habitat use of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon: first estimates for area of habitat and population size
- LUKE J. SUTTON, LILY-ARISON RENE DE ROLAND, RUSSELL THORSTROM, CHRISTOPHER J. W. MCCLURE
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- Journal:
- Bird Conservation International / Volume 32 / Issue 4 / December 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 13 June 2022, pp. 624-640
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Accurately demarcating distributions of biological taxa has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors defining species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species in the Global South. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk and data-limited species using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The Madagascar Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus radama is the resident sub-species of the Peregrine Falcon complex distributed across Madagascar, Mayotte, and the Comoros Islands. There are currently significant knowledge gaps regarding its distribution, habitat preferences, and population size. Here, we use penalized logistic regression and environmental ordination to identify Madagascar Peregrine Falcon habitat in both geographic and environmental space and propose a population size estimate based on inferred habitat. From the penalized logistic regression model, the core habitat area of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon extends across the central and northern upland plateau of Madagascar with patchier habitat across coastal and low-elevation areas. Range-wide habitat use in both geographic and environmental space indicated positive associations with high elevation and aridity, coupled with high vegetation heterogeneity and >95% herbaceous landcover, but general avoidance of areas >30% cultivated land and >10% mosaic forest. Based on inferred high-class habitat from the penalized logistic regression model, we estimate this habitat area could potentially support a population size ranging between 150 and 300 pairs. Following IUCN Red List guidelines, this subspecies would be classed as ‘Vulnerable’ due to its small population size. Despite its potentially large range, the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon has specialised habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models to maintain viable populations.