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6 Association Between American Football Play and Parkinson's Disease: Analysis of the Fox Insight Data Set
- Hannah Bruce, Yorghos Tripodis, Michael McClean, Monica Korell, Caroline M Tanner, Brittany Contreras, Joshua Gottesman, Leslie Kirsch, Yasir Karim, Brett Martin, Joseph Palmisano, Thor D Stein, Jesse Mez, Robert A Stern, Charles H Adler, Chris Nowinski, Ann C McKee, Michael L Alosco
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- Journal:
- Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society / Volume 29 / Issue s1 / November 2023
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 21 December 2023, pp. 415-416
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Objective:
Parkinsonism and Parkinson's disease (PD) have been described as consequences of repetitive head impacts (RHI) from boxing, since 1928. Autopsy studies have shown that RHI from other contact sports can also increase risk for neurodegenerative diseases, including chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and Lewy bodies. In vivo research on the relationship between American football play and PD is scarce, with small samples, and equivocal findings. This study leveraged the Fox Insight study to evaluate the association between American football and parkinsonism and/or PD Diagnosis and related clinical outcomes.
Participants and Methods:Fox Insight is an online study of people with and without PD who are 18+ years (>50,000 enrolled). Participants complete online questionnaires on motor function, cognitive function, and general health behaviors. Participants self-reported whether they "currently have a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease, or parkinsonism, by a physician or other health care professional." In November 2020, the Boston University Head Impact Exposure Assessment was launched in Fox Insight for large-scale data collection on exposure to RHI from contact sports and other sources. Data used in this abstract were obtained from the Fox Insight database https://foxinsight-info.michaeljfox.org/insight/explore/insight.jsp on 01/06/2022. The sample includes 2018 men who endorsed playing an organized sport. Because only 1.6% of football players were women, analyses are limited to men. Responses to questions regarding history of participation in organized football were examined. Other contact and/or non-contact sports served as the referent group. Outcomes included PD status (absence/presence of parkinsonism or PD) and Penn Parkinson's Daily Activities Questionnaire-15 (PDAQ-15) for assessment of cognitive symptoms. Binary logistic regression tested associations between history and years of football play with PD status, controlling for age, education, current heart disease or diabetes, and family history of PD. Linear regressions, controlling for these variables, were used for the PDAQ-15.
Results:Of the 2018 men (mean age=67.67, SD=9.84; 10, 0.5% Black), 788 (39%) played football (mean years of play=4.29, SD=2.88), including 122 (16.3%) who played youth football, 494 (66.0%) played high school, 128 (17.1%) played college football, and 5 (0.7%) played at the semi-professional or professional level. 1738 (86.1%) reported being diagnosed with parkinsonism/PD, and 707 of these were football players (40.7%). History of playing any level of football was associated with increased odds of having a reported parkinsonism or PD diagnosis (OR=1.52, 95% CI=1.14-2.03, p=0.004). The OR remained similar among those age <69 (sample median age) (OR=1.45, 95% CI=0.97-2.17, p=0.07) and 69+ (OR=1.45, 95% CI=0.95-2.22, p=0.09). Among the football players, there was not a significant association between years of play and PD status (OR=1.09, 95% CI=1.00-1.20, p=0.063). History of football play was not associated with PDAQ-15 scores (n=1980) (beta=-0.78, 95% CI=-1.59-0.03, p=0.059) among the entire sample.
Conclusions:Among 2018 men from a data set enriched for PD, playing organized football was associated with increased odds of having a reported parkinsonism/PD diagnosis. Next steps include examination of the contribution of traumatic brain injury and other sources of RHI (e.g., soccer, military service).
Taboos and conflicts in decision making: Sacred values, decision difficulty, and emotions
- Martin Hanselmann, Carmen Tanner
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- Journal:
- Judgment and Decision Making / Volume 3 / Issue 1 / January 2008
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 January 2023, pp. 51-63
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Previous studies suggest that choices are perceived as difficult as well as negatively emotion-laden when they tap into moral considerations. However, we propose that the involvement of moral issues and values can also facilitate decisions because people often insistently preclude them from trade-offs with other values. Because such values are treated as inviolable and absolute, they are called sacred values (e.g., Tetlock et al., 2000). Two experiments examined the influence of sacred values (measured by a recent self-report scale) and variation of trade-off type (taboo, tragic, routine trade-offs) on perceived decision difficulty and negative emotions. As hypothesized, decision difficulty and negative emotions show diverging patterns as a function of sacred values and trade-off types. When the decision situation involved two conflicting sacred values (i.e., tragic trade-off), people perceived the decision task as emotionally stressful and difficult. However, when the decision situation was associated with only one sacred value (i.e., taboo trade-off), people perceived the task as more negatively emotion-laden, but as easier to solve, compared to a situation not involving sacred values (i.e., routine trade-off). These findings suggest that reliance on sacred values may work as a heuristic.
Discontinuing MRSA and VRE contact precautions: Defining hospital characteristics and infection prevention practices predicting safe de-escalation
- Elise M. Martin, Bonnie Colaianne, Christine Bridge, Andrew Bilderback, Colleen Tanner, Suzanne Wagester, Mohamed Yassin, Raymond Pontzer, Graham M. Snyder
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 43 / Issue 11 / November 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2021, pp. 1595-1602
- Print publication:
- November 2022
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Objective:
To define conditions in which contact precautions can be safely discontinued for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE).
Design:Interrupted time series.
Setting:15 acute-care hospitals.
Participants:Inpatients.
Intervention:Contact precautions for endemic MRSA and VRE were discontinued in 12 intervention hospitals and continued at 3 nonintervention hospitals. Rates of MRSA and VRE healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) were collected for 12 months before and after. Trends in HAI rates were analyzed using Poisson regression. To predict conditions when contact precautions may be safely discontinued, selected baseline hospital characteristics and infection prevention practices were correlated with HAI rate changes, stratified by hospital.
Results:Aggregated HAI rates from intervention hospitals before and after discontinuation of contact precautions were 0.14 and 0.15 MRSA HAI per 1,000 patient days (P = .74), 0.05 and 0.05 VRE HAI per 1,000 patient days (P = .96), and 0.04 and 0.04 MRSA laboratory-identified (LabID) events per 100 admissions (P = .57). No statistically significant rate changes occurred between intervention and non-intervention hospitals. All successful hospitals had low baseline MRSA and VRE HAI rates and high hand hygiene adherence. We observed no correlations between rate changes after discontinuation and the assessed hospital characteristics and infection prevention factors, but the rate improved with higher proportion of semiprivate rooms (P = .04).
Conclusions:Discontinuing contact precautions for MRSA/VRE did not result in increased HAI rates, suggesting that contact precautions can be safely removed from diverse hospitals, including community hospitals and those with lower proportions of private rooms. Good hand hygiene and low baseline HAI rates may be conditions permissive of safe removal of contact precautions.
Ecological Regression with Partial Identification
- Wenxin Jiang, Gary King, Allen Schmaltz, Martin A. Tanner
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- Journal:
- Political Analysis / Volume 28 / Issue 1 / January 2020
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 August 2019, pp. 65-86
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Ecological inference (EI) is the process of learning about individual behavior from aggregate data. We relax assumptions by allowing for “linear contextual effects,” which previous works have regarded as plausible but avoided due to nonidentification, a problem we sidestep by deriving bounds instead of point estimates. In this way, we offer a conceptual framework to improve on the Duncan–Davis bound, derived more than 65 years ago. To study the effectiveness of our approach, we collect and analyze 8,430 $2\times 2$ EI datasets with known ground truth from several sources—thus bringing considerably more data to bear on the problem than the existing dozen or so datasets available in the literature for evaluating EI estimators. For the 88% of real data sets in our collection that fit a proposed rule, our approach reduces the width of the Duncan–Davis bound, on average, by about 44%, while still capturing the true district-level parameter about 99% of the time. The remaining 12% revert to the Duncan–Davis bound.
Sedimentary Proxy Evidence of a Mid-Holocene Hypsithermal Event in the Location of a Current Warming Hole, North Carolina, USA
- Benjamin R. Tanner, Chad S. Lane, Elizabeth M. Martin, Robert Young, Beverly Collins
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- Journal:
- Quaternary Research / Volume 83 / Issue 2 / March 2015
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 20 January 2017, pp. 315-323
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A wetland deposit from the southern Appalachian mountains of North Carolina, USA, has been radiocarbon dated and shows continuous deposition from the early Holocene to the present. Non-coastal records of Holocene paleoenvironments are rare from the southeastern USA. Increased stable carbon isotope ratios (?13C) of sedimentary organic matter and pollen percentages indicate warm, dry early- to mid-Holocene conditions. This interpretation is also supported by n-alkane biomarker data and bulk sedimentary C/N ratios. These warm, dry conditions coincide with a mid-Holocene hypsithermal, or altithermal, documented elsewhere in North America. Our data indicate that the southeastern USA warmed concurrently with much of the rest of the continent during the mid-Holocene. If the current "warming hole" in the southeastern USA persists, during a time of greenhouse gas-induced warming elsewhere, it will be anomalous both in space and time.
GENERAL INEQUALITIES FOR GIBBS POSTERIOR WITH NONADDITIVE EMPIRICAL RISK
- Cheng Li, Wenxin Jiang, Martin A. Tanner
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- Journal:
- Econometric Theory / Volume 30 / Issue 6 / December 2014
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 16 April 2014, pp. 1247-1271
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The Gibbs posterior is a useful tool for risk minimization, which adopts a Bayesian framework and can incorporate convenient computational algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. We derive risk bounds for the Gibbs posterior using some general nonasymptotic inequalities, which can be used to derive nearly optimal convergence rates and select models to optimally balance the approximation errors and the stochastic errors. These inequalities are formulated in a very general way that does not require the empirical risk to be a usual sample average over independent observations. We apply this framework to study the convergence rate of the GMM (generalized method of moments) risk and derive an oracle inequality for the ranking risk, where models are selected based on the Gibbs posterior with a nonadditive empirical risk.
Use of vitamin D supplements during infancy in an international feeding trial
- Eveliina Lehtonen, Anne Ormisson, Anita Nucci, David Cuthbertson, Susa Sorkio, Mila Hyytinen, Kirsi Alahuhta, Carol Berseth, Marja Salonen, Shayne Taback, Margaret Franciscus, Teba González-Frutos, Tuuli E Korhonen, Margaret L Lawson, Dorothy J Becker, Jeffrey P Krischer, Mikael Knip, Suvi M Virtanen, , Thomas Mandrup-Poulsen, Elias Arjas, Åke Lernmark, Barbara Schmidt, Jeffrey P. Krischer, Hans K. Åkerblom, Mila Hyytinen, Mikael Knip, Katriina Koski, Matti Koski, Eeva Pajakkala, Marja Salonen, David Cuthbertson, Jeffrey P. Krischer, Linda Shanker, Brenda Bradley, Hans-Michael Dosch, John Dupré, William Fraser, Margaret Lawson, Jeffrey L. Mahon, Mathew Sermer, Shayne P. Taback, Dorothy Becker, Margaret Franciscus, Anita Nucci, Jerry Palmer, Minna Pekkala, Suvi M. Virtanen, Jacki Catteau, Neville Howard, Patricia Crock, Maria Craig, Cheril L. Clarson, Lynda Bere, David Thompson, Daniel Metzger, Colleen Marshall, Jennifer Kwan, David K. Stephure, Daniele Pacaud, Wendy Schwarz, Rose Girgis, Marilyn Thompson, Shayne P. Taback, Daniel Catte, Margaret L. Lawson, Brenda Bradley, Denis Daneman, Mathew Sermer, Mary-Jean Martin, Valérie Morin, Lyne Frenette, Suzanne Ferland, Susan Sanderson, Kathy Heath, Céline Huot, Monique Gonthier, Maryse Thibeault, Laurent Legault, Diane Laforte, Elizabeth A. Cummings, Karen Scott, Tracey Bridger, Cheryl Crummell, Robyn Houlden, Adriana Breen, George Carson, Sheila Kelly, Koravangattu Sankaran, Marie Penner, Richard A. White, Nancy King, James Popkin, Laurie Robson, Eva Al Taji, Irena Aldhoon, Pavla Mendlova, Jan Vavrinec, Jan Vosahlo, Ludmila Brazdova, Jitrenka Venhacova, Petra Venhacova, Adam Cipra, Zdenka Tomsikova, Petra Krckova, Pavla Gogelova, Ülle Einberg, Mall-Anne Riikjärv, Anne Ormisson, Vallo Tillmann, Päivi Kleemola, Anna Parkkola, Heli Suomalainen, Anna-Liisa Järvenpää, Anu-Maaria Hämälainen, Hannu Haavisto, Sirpa Tenhola, Pentti Lautala, Pia Salonen, Susanna Aspholm, Heli Siljander, Carita Holm, Samuli Ylitalo, Raisa Lounamaa, Anja Nuuja, Timo Talvitie, Kaija Lindström, Hanna Huopio, Jouni Pesola, Riitta Veijola, Päivi Tapanainen, Abram Alar, Paavo Korpela, Marja-Liisa Käär, Taina Mustila, Ritva Virransalo, Päivi Nykänen, Bärbel Aschemeier, Thomas Danne, Olga Kordonouri, Dóra Krikovszky, László Madácsy, Yeganeh Manon Khazrai, Ernesto Maddaloni, Paolo Pozzilli, Carla Mannu, Marco Songini, Carine de Beaufort, Ulrike Schierloh, Jan Bruining, Margriet Bisschoff, Aleksander Basiak, Renata Wasikowa, Marta Ciechanowska, Grazyna Deja, Przemyslawa Jarosz-Chobot, Agnieszka Szadkowska, Katarzyna Cypryk, Malgorzata Zawodniak-Szalapska, Luis Castano, Teba Gonzalez Frutos, Mirentxu Oyarzabal, Manuel Serrano-Ríos, María Teresa Martínez-Larrad, Federico Gustavo Hawkins, Dolores Rodriguez Arnau, Johnny Ludvigsson, Malgorzata Smolinska Konefal, Ragnar Hanas, Bengt Lindblad, Nils-Osten Nilsson, Hans Fors, Maria Nordwall, Agne Lindh, Hans Edenwall, Jan Aman, Calle Johansson, Margrit Gadient, Eugen Schoenle, Dorothy Becker, Ashi Daftary, Margaret Franciscus, Carol Gilmour, Jerry Palmer, Rachel Taculad, Marilyn Tanner-Blasiar, Neil White, Uday Devaskar, Heather Horowitz, Lisa Rogers, Roxana Colon, Teresa Frazer, Jose Torres, Robin Goland, Ellen Greenberg, Maudene Nelson, Holly Schachner, Barney Softness, Jorma Ilonen, Massimo Trucco, Lynn Nichol, Erkki Savilahti, Taina Härkönen, Mikael Knip, Outi Vaarala, Kristiina Luopajärvi, Hans-Michael Dosch
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- Journal:
- Public Health Nutrition / Volume 17 / Issue 4 / April 2014
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 24 June 2013, pp. 810-822
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Objective
To examine the use of vitamin D supplements during infancy among the participants in an international infant feeding trial.
DesignLongitudinal study.
SettingInformation about vitamin D supplementation was collected through a validated FFQ at the age of 2 weeks and monthly between the ages of 1 month and 6 months.
SubjectsInfants (n 2159) with a biological family member affected by type 1 diabetes and with increased human leucocyte antigen-conferred susceptibility to type 1 diabetes from twelve European countries, the USA, Canada and Australia.
ResultsDaily use of vitamin D supplements was common during the first 6 months of life in Northern and Central Europe (>80 % of the infants), with somewhat lower rates observed in Southern Europe (>60 %). In Canada, vitamin D supplementation was more common among exclusively breast-fed than other infants (e.g. 71 % v. 44 % at 6 months of age). Less than 2 % of infants in the USA and Australia received any vitamin D supplementation. Higher gestational age, older maternal age and longer maternal education were study-wide associated with greater use of vitamin D supplements.
ConclusionsMost of the infants received vitamin D supplements during the first 6 months of life in the European countries, whereas in Canada only half and in the USA and Australia very few were given supplementation.
Contributors
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- By Rose Teteki Abbey, K. C. Abraham, David Tuesday Adamo, LeRoy H. Aden, Efrain Agosto, Victor Aguilan, Gillian T. W. Ahlgren, Charanjit Kaur AjitSingh, Dorothy B E A Akoto, Giuseppe Alberigo, Daniel E. Albrecht, Ruth Albrecht, Daniel O. Aleshire, Urs Altermatt, Anand Amaladass, Michael Amaladoss, James N. Amanze, Lesley G. Anderson, Thomas C. Anderson, Victor Anderson, Hope S. Antone, María Pilar Aquino, Paula Arai, Victorio Araya Guillén, S. Wesley Ariarajah, Ellen T. Armour, Brett Gregory Armstrong, Atsuhiro Asano, Naim Stifan Ateek, Mahmoud Ayoub, John Alembillah Azumah, Mercedes L. García Bachmann, Irena Backus, J. Wayne Baker, Mieke Bal, Lewis V. Baldwin, William Barbieri, António Barbosa da Silva, David Basinger, Bolaji Olukemi Bateye, Oswald Bayer, Daniel H. Bays, Rosalie Beck, Nancy Elizabeth Bedford, Guy-Thomas Bedouelle, Chorbishop Seely Beggiani, Wolfgang Behringer, Christopher M. Bellitto, Byard Bennett, Harold V. Bennett, Teresa Berger, Miguel A. Bernad, Henley Bernard, Alan E. Bernstein, Jon L. Berquist, Johannes Beutler, Ana María Bidegain, Matthew P. Binkewicz, Jennifer Bird, Joseph Blenkinsopp, Dmytro Bondarenko, Paulo Bonfatti, Riet en Pim Bons-Storm, Jessica A. Boon, Marcus J. Borg, Mark Bosco, Peter C. Bouteneff, François Bovon, William D. Bowman, Paul S. Boyer, David Brakke, Richard E. Brantley, Marcus Braybrooke, Ian Breward, Ênio José da Costa Brito, Jewel Spears Brooker, Johannes Brosseder, Nicholas Canfield Read Brown, Robert F. Brown, Pamela K. Brubaker, Walter Brueggemann, Bishop Colin O. Buchanan, Stanley M. Burgess, Amy Nelson Burnett, J. Patout Burns, David B. Burrell, David Buttrick, James P. Byrd, Lavinia Byrne, Gerado Caetano, Marcos Caldas, Alkiviadis Calivas, William J. Callahan, Salvatore Calomino, Euan K. Cameron, William S. Campbell, Marcelo Ayres Camurça, Daniel F. Caner, Paul E. Capetz, Carlos F. Cardoza-Orlandi, Patrick W. Carey, Barbara Carvill, Hal Cauthron, Subhadra Mitra Channa, Mark D. Chapman, James H. Charlesworth, Kenneth R. Chase, Chen Zemin, Luciano Chianeque, Philip Chia Phin Yin, Francisca H. Chimhanda, Daniel Chiquete, John T. Chirban, Soobin Choi, Robert Choquette, Mita Choudhury, Gerald Christianson, John Chryssavgis, Sejong Chun, Esther Chung-Kim, Charles M. A. Clark, Elizabeth A. Clark, Sathianathan Clarke, Fred Cloud, John B. Cobb, W. Owen Cole, John A Coleman, John J. Collins, Sylvia Collins-Mayo, Paul K. Conkin, Beth A. Conklin, Sean Connolly, Demetrios J. Constantelos, Michael A. Conway, Paula M. Cooey, Austin Cooper, Michael L. Cooper-White, Pamela Cooper-White, L. William Countryman, Sérgio Coutinho, Pamela Couture, Shannon Craigo-Snell, James L. Crenshaw, David Crowner, Humberto Horacio Cucchetti, Lawrence S. Cunningham, Elizabeth Mason Currier, Emmanuel Cutrone, Mary L. Daniel, David D. Daniels, Robert Darden, Rolf Darge, Isaiah Dau, Jeffry C. Davis, Jane Dawson, Valentin Dedji, John W. de Gruchy, Paul DeHart, Wendy J. Deichmann Edwards, Miguel A. De La Torre, George E. Demacopoulos, Thomas de Mayo, Leah DeVun, Beatriz de Vasconcellos Dias, Dennis C. Dickerson, John M. Dillon, Luis Miguel Donatello, Igor Dorfmann-Lazarev, Susanna Drake, Jonathan A. Draper, N. Dreher Martin, Otto Dreydoppel, Angelyn Dries, A. J. Droge, Francis X. D'Sa, Marilyn Dunn, Nicole Wilkinson Duran, Rifaat Ebied, Mark J. Edwards, William H. Edwards, Leonard H. Ehrlich, Nancy L. Eiesland, Martin Elbel, J. Harold Ellens, Stephen Ellingson, Marvin M. Ellison, Robert Ellsberg, Jean Bethke Elshtain, Eldon Jay Epp, Peter C. Erb, Tassilo Erhardt, Maria Erling, Noel Leo Erskine, Gillian R. Evans, Virginia Fabella, Michael A. Fahey, Edward Farley, Margaret A. Farley, Wendy Farley, Robert Fastiggi, Seena Fazel, Duncan S. Ferguson, Helwar Figueroa, Paul Corby Finney, Kyriaki Karidoyanes FitzGerald, Thomas E. FitzGerald, John R. Fitzmier, Marie Therese Flanagan, Sabina Flanagan, Claude Flipo, Ronald B. Flowers, Carole Fontaine, David Ford, Mary Ford, Stephanie A. Ford, Jim Forest, William Franke, Robert M. Franklin, Ruth Franzén, Edward H. Friedman, Samuel Frouisou, Lorelei F. Fuchs, Jojo M. Fung, Inger Furseth, Richard R. Gaillardetz, Brandon Gallaher, China Galland, Mark Galli, Ismael García, Tharscisse Gatwa, Jean-Marie Gaudeul, Luis María Gavilanes del Castillo, Pavel L. Gavrilyuk, Volney P. Gay, Metropolitan Athanasios Geevargis, Kondothra M. George, Mary Gerhart, Simon Gikandi, Maurice Gilbert, Michael J. Gillgannon, Verónica Giménez Beliveau, Terryl Givens, Beth Glazier-McDonald, Philip Gleason, Menghun Goh, Brian Golding, Bishop Hilario M. Gomez, Michelle A. Gonzalez, Donald K. Gorrell, Roy Gottfried, Tamara Grdzelidze, Joel B. Green, Niels Henrik Gregersen, Cristina Grenholm, Herbert Griffiths, Eric W. Gritsch, Erich S. Gruen, Christoffer H. Grundmann, Paul H. Gundani, Jon P. Gunnemann, Petre Guran, Vidar L. Haanes, Jeremiah M. Hackett, Getatchew Haile, Douglas John Hall, Nicholas Hammond, Daphne Hampson, Jehu J. Hanciles, Barry Hankins, Jennifer Haraguchi, Stanley S. Harakas, Anthony John Harding, Conrad L. Harkins, J. William Harmless, Marjory Harper, Amir Harrak, Joel F. Harrington, Mark W. Harris, Susan Ashbrook Harvey, Van A. Harvey, R. Chris Hassel, Jione Havea, Daniel Hawk, Diana L. Hayes, Leslie Hayes, Priscilla Hayner, S. Mark Heim, Simo Heininen, Richard P. Heitzenrater, Eila Helander, David Hempton, Scott H. Hendrix, Jan-Olav Henriksen, Gina Hens-Piazza, Carter Heyward, Nicholas J. Higham, David Hilliard, Norman A. Hjelm, Peter C. Hodgson, Arthur Holder, M. Jan Holton, Dwight N. Hopkins, Ronnie Po-chia Hsia, Po-Ho Huang, James Hudnut-Beumler, Jennifer S. Hughes, Leonard M. Hummel, Mary E. Hunt, Laennec Hurbon, Mark Hutchinson, Susan E. Hylen, Mary Beth Ingham, H. Larry Ingle, Dale T. Irvin, Jon Isaak, Paul John Isaak, Ada María Isasi-Díaz, Hans Raun Iversen, Margaret C. Jacob, Arthur James, Maria Jansdotter-Samuelsson, David Jasper, Werner G. Jeanrond, Renée Jeffery, David Lyle Jeffrey, Theodore W. Jennings, David H. Jensen, Robin Margaret Jensen, David Jobling, Dale A. Johnson, Elizabeth A. Johnson, Maxwell E. Johnson, Sarah Johnson, Mark D. Johnston, F. Stanley Jones, James William Jones, John R. Jones, Alissa Jones Nelson, Inge Jonsson, Jan Joosten, Elizabeth Judd, Mulambya Peggy Kabonde, Robert Kaggwa, Sylvester Kahakwa, Isaac Kalimi, Ogbu U. Kalu, Eunice Kamaara, Wayne C. Kannaday, Musimbi Kanyoro, Veli-Matti Kärkkäinen, Frank Kaufmann, Léon Nguapitshi Kayongo, Richard Kearney, Alice A. Keefe, Ralph Keen, Catherine Keller, Anthony J. Kelly, Karen Kennelly, Kathi Lynn Kern, Fergus Kerr, Edward Kessler, George Kilcourse, Heup Young Kim, Kim Sung-Hae, Kim Yong-Bock, Kim Yung Suk, Richard King, Thomas M. King, Robert M. Kingdon, Ross Kinsler, Hans G. Kippenberg, Cheryl A. Kirk-Duggan, Clifton Kirkpatrick, Leonid Kishkovsky, Nadieszda Kizenko, Jeffrey Klaiber, Hans-Josef Klauck, Sidney Knight, Samuel Kobia, Robert Kolb, Karla Ann Koll, Heikki Kotila, Donald Kraybill, Philip D. W. Krey, Yves Krumenacker, Jeffrey Kah-Jin Kuan, Simanga R. Kumalo, Peter Kuzmic, Simon Shui-Man Kwan, Kwok Pui-lan, André LaCocque, Stephen E. Lahey, John Tsz Pang Lai, Emiel Lamberts, Armando Lampe, Craig Lampe, Beverly J. Lanzetta, Eve LaPlante, Lizette Larson-Miller, Ariel Bybee Laughton, Leonard Lawlor, Bentley Layton, Robin A. Leaver, Karen Lebacqz, Archie Chi Chung Lee, Marilyn J. Legge, Hervé LeGrand, D. L. LeMahieu, Raymond Lemieux, Bill J. Leonard, Ellen M. Leonard, Outi Leppä, Jean Lesaulnier, Nantawan Boonprasat Lewis, Henrietta Leyser, Alexei Lidov, Bernard Lightman, Paul Chang-Ha Lim, Carter Lindberg, Mark R. Lindsay, James R. Linville, James C. Livingston, Ann Loades, David Loades, Jean-Claude Loba-Mkole, Lo Lung Kwong, Wati Longchar, Eleazar López, David W. Lotz, Andrew Louth, Robin W. Lovin, William Luis, Frank D. Macchia, Diarmaid N. J. MacCulloch, Kirk R. MacGregor, Marjory A. MacLean, Donald MacLeod, Tomas S. Maddela, Inge Mager, Laurenti Magesa, David G. Maillu, Fortunato Mallimaci, Philip Mamalakis, Kä Mana, Ukachukwu Chris Manus, Herbert Robinson Marbury, Reuel Norman Marigza, Jacqueline Mariña, Antti Marjanen, Luiz C. L. Marques, Madipoane Masenya (ngwan'a Mphahlele), Caleb J. D. Maskell, Steve Mason, Thomas Massaro, Fernando Matamoros Ponce, András Máté-Tóth, Odair Pedroso Mateus, Dinis Matsolo, Fumitaka Matsuoka, John D'Arcy May, Yelena Mazour-Matusevich, Theodore Mbazumutima, John S. McClure, Christian McConnell, Lee Martin McDonald, Gary B. McGee, Thomas McGowan, Alister E. McGrath, Richard J. McGregor, John A. McGuckin, Maud Burnett McInerney, Elsie Anne McKee, Mary B. McKinley, James F. McMillan, Ernan McMullin, Kathleen E. McVey, M. Douglas Meeks, Monica Jyotsna Melanchthon, Ilie Melniciuc-Puica, Everett Mendoza, Raymond A. Mentzer, William W. Menzies, Ina Merdjanova, Franziska Metzger, Constant J. Mews, Marvin Meyer, Carol Meyers, Vasile Mihoc, Gunner Bjerg Mikkelsen, Maria Inêz de Castro Millen, Clyde Lee Miller, Bonnie J. Miller-McLemore, Alexander Mirkovic, Paul Misner, Nozomu Miyahira, R. W. L. Moberly, Gerald Moede, Aloo Osotsi Mojola, Sunanda Mongia, Rebeca Montemayor, James Moore, Roger E. Moore, Craig E. Morrison O.Carm, Jeffry H. Morrison, Keith Morrison, Wilson J. Moses, Tefetso Henry Mothibe, Mokgethi Motlhabi, Fulata Moyo, Henry Mugabe, Jesse Ndwiga Kanyua Mugambi, Peggy Mulambya-Kabonde, Robert Bruce Mullin, Pamela Mullins Reaves, Saskia Murk Jansen, Heleen L. Murre-Van den Berg, Augustine Musopole, Isaac M. T. Mwase, Philomena Mwaura, Cecilia Nahnfeldt, Anne Nasimiyu Wasike, Carmiña Navia Velasco, Thulani Ndlazi, Alexander Negrov, James B. Nelson, David G. Newcombe, Carol Newsom, Helen J. Nicholson, George W. E. Nickelsburg, Tatyana Nikolskaya, Damayanthi M. A. Niles, Bertil Nilsson, Nyambura Njoroge, Fidelis Nkomazana, Mary Beth Norton, Christian Nottmeier, Sonene Nyawo, Anthère Nzabatsinda, Edward T. Oakes, Gerald O'Collins, Daniel O'Connell, David W. Odell-Scott, Mercy Amba Oduyoye, Kathleen O'Grady, Oyeronke Olajubu, Thomas O'Loughlin, Dennis T. Olson, J. Steven O'Malley, Cephas N. Omenyo, Muriel Orevillo-Montenegro, César Augusto Ornellas Ramos, Agbonkhianmeghe E. Orobator, Kenan B. Osborne, Carolyn Osiek, Javier Otaola Montagne, Douglas F. Ottati, Anna May Say Pa, Irina Paert, Jerry G. Pankhurst, Aristotle Papanikolaou, Samuele F. Pardini, Stefano Parenti, Peter Paris, Sung Bae Park, Cristián G. Parker, Raquel Pastor, Joseph Pathrapankal, Daniel Patte, W. Brown Patterson, Clive Pearson, Keith F. Pecklers, Nancy Cardoso Pereira, David Horace Perkins, Pheme Perkins, Edward N. Peters, Rebecca Todd Peters, Bishop Yeznik Petrossian, Raymond Pfister, Peter C. Phan, Isabel Apawo Phiri, William S. F. Pickering, Derrick G. Pitard, William Elvis Plata, Zlatko Plese, John Plummer, James Newton Poling, Ronald Popivchak, Andrew Porter, Ute Possekel, James M. Powell, Enos Das Pradhan, Devadasan Premnath, Jaime Adrían Prieto Valladares, Anne Primavesi, Randall Prior, María Alicia Puente Lutteroth, Eduardo Guzmão Quadros, Albert Rabil, Laurent William Ramambason, Apolonio M. Ranche, Vololona Randriamanantena Andriamitandrina, Lawrence R. Rast, Paul L. Redditt, Adele Reinhartz, Rolf Rendtorff, Pål Repstad, James N. Rhodes, John K. Riches, Joerg Rieger, Sharon H. Ringe, Sandra Rios, Tyler Roberts, David M. Robinson, James M. Robinson, Joanne Maguire Robinson, Richard A. H. Robinson, Roy R. Robson, Jack B. Rogers, Maria Roginska, Sidney Rooy, Rev. Garnett Roper, Maria José Fontelas Rosado-Nunes, Andrew C. Ross, Stefan Rossbach, François Rossier, John D. Roth, John K. Roth, Phillip Rothwell, Richard E. Rubenstein, Rosemary Radford Ruether, Markku Ruotsila, John E. Rybolt, Risto Saarinen, John Saillant, Juan Sanchez, Wagner Lopes Sanchez, Hugo N. Santos, Gerhard Sauter, Gloria L. Schaab, Sandra M. Schneiders, Quentin J. Schultze, Fernando F. Segovia, Turid Karlsen Seim, Carsten Selch Jensen, Alan P. F. Sell, Frank C. Senn, Kent Davis Sensenig, Damían Setton, Bal Krishna Sharma, Carolyn J. Sharp, Thomas Sheehan, N. Gerald Shenk, Christian Sheppard, Charles Sherlock, Tabona Shoko, Walter B. Shurden, Marguerite Shuster, B. Mark Sietsema, Batara Sihombing, Neil Silberman, Clodomiro Siller, Samuel Silva-Gotay, Heikki Silvet, John K. Simmons, Hagith Sivan, James C. Skedros, Abraham Smith, Ashley A. Smith, Ted A. Smith, Daud Soesilo, Pia Søltoft, Choan-Seng (C. S.) Song, Kathryn Spink, Bryan Spinks, Eric O. Springsted, Nicolas Standaert, Brian Stanley, Glen H. Stassen, Karel Steenbrink, Stephen J. Stein, Andrea Sterk, Gregory E. Sterling, Columba Stewart, Jacques Stewart, Robert B. Stewart, Cynthia Stokes Brown, Ken Stone, Anne Stott, Elizabeth Stuart, Monya Stubbs, Marjorie Hewitt Suchocki, David Kwang-sun Suh, Scott W. Sunquist, Keith Suter, Douglas Sweeney, Charles H. Talbert, Shawqi N. Talia, Elsa Tamez, Joseph B. Tamney, Jonathan Y. Tan, Yak-Hwee Tan, Kathryn Tanner, Feiya Tao, Elizabeth S. Tapia, Aquiline Tarimo, Claire Taylor, Mark Lewis Taylor, Bishop Abba Samuel Wolde Tekestebirhan, Eugene TeSelle, M. Thomas Thangaraj, David R. Thomas, Andrew Thornley, Scott Thumma, Marcelo Timotheo da Costa, George E. “Tink” Tinker, Ola Tjørhom, Karen Jo Torjesen, Iain R. Torrance, Fernando Torres-Londoño, Archbishop Demetrios [Trakatellis], Marit Trelstad, Christine Trevett, Phyllis Trible, Johannes Tromp, Paul Turner, Robert G. Tuttle, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Peter Tyler, Anders Tyrberg, Justin Ukpong, Javier Ulloa, Camillus Umoh, Kristi Upson-Saia, Martina Urban, Monica Uribe, Elochukwu Eugene Uzukwu, Richard Vaggione, Gabriel Vahanian, Paul Valliere, T. J. Van Bavel, Steven Vanderputten, Peter Van der Veer, Huub Van de Sandt, Louis Van Tongeren, Luke A. Veronis, Noel Villalba, Ramón Vinke, Tim Vivian, David Voas, Elena Volkova, Katharina von Kellenbach, Elina Vuola, Timothy Wadkins, Elaine M. Wainwright, Randi Jones Walker, Dewey D. Wallace, Jerry Walls, Michael J. Walsh, Philip Walters, Janet Walton, Jonathan L. Walton, Wang Xiaochao, Patricia A. Ward, David Harrington Watt, Herold D. Weiss, Laurence L. Welborn, Sharon D. Welch, Timothy Wengert, Traci C. West, Merold Westphal, David Wetherell, Barbara Wheeler, Carolinne White, Jean-Paul Wiest, Frans Wijsen, Terry L. Wilder, Felix Wilfred, Rebecca Wilkin, Daniel H. Williams, D. Newell Williams, Michael A. Williams, Vincent L. Wimbush, Gabriele Winkler, Anders Winroth, Lauri Emílio Wirth, James A. Wiseman, Ebba Witt-Brattström, Teofil Wojciechowski, John Wolffe, Kenman L. Wong, Wong Wai Ching, Linda Woodhead, Wendy M. Wright, Rose Wu, Keith E. Yandell, Gale A. Yee, Viktor Yelensky, Yeo Khiok-Khng, Gustav K. K. Yeung, Angela Yiu, Amos Yong, Yong Ting Jin, You Bin, Youhanna Nessim Youssef, Eliana Yunes, Robert Michael Zaller, Valarie H. Ziegler, Barbara Brown Zikmund, Joyce Ann Zimmerman, Aurora Zlotnik, Zhuo Xinping
- Edited by Daniel Patte, Vanderbilt University, Tennessee
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- The Cambridge Dictionary of Christianity
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- 05 August 2012
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- 20 September 2010, pp xi-xliv
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RISK MINIMIZATION FOR TIME SERIES BINARY CHOICE WITH VARIABLE SELECTION
- Wenxin Jiang, Martin A. Tanner
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- Econometric Theory / Volume 26 / Issue 5 / October 2010
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 05 March 2010, pp. 1437-1452
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This paper considers the problem of predicting binary choices by selecting from a possibly large set of candidate explanatory variables, which can include both exogenous variables and lagged dependent variables. We consider risk minimization with the risk function being the predictive classification error. We study the convergence rates of empirical risk minimization in both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The Bayesian treatment uses a Gibbs posterior constructed directly from the empirical risk instead of using the usual likelihood-based posterior. Therefore these approaches do not require a correctly specified probability model. We show that the proposed methods have near optimal performance relative to a class of linear classification rules with selected variables. Such results in classification are obtained in a framework of dependent data with strong mixing.
Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler
- GARY KING, ORI ROSEN, MARTIN TANNER, ALEXANDER F. WAGNER
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- The Journal of Economic History / Volume 68 / Issue 4 / December 2008
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- 01 December 2008, pp. 951-996
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- December 2008
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The enormous Nazi voting literature rarely builds on modern statistical or economic research. By adding these approaches, we find that the most widely accepted existing theories of this era cannot distinguish the Weimar elections from almost any others in any country. Via a retrospective voting account, we show that voters most hurt by the depression, and most likely to oppose the government, fall into separate groups with divergent interests. This explains why some turned to the Nazis and others turned away. The consequences of Hitler's election were extraordinary, but the voting behavior that led to it was not.
Ecological Inference
- New Methodological Strategies
- Edited by Gary King, Ori Rosen, Martin A. Tanner
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- Published online:
- 18 May 2010
- Print publication:
- 13 September 2004
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Drawing upon the explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays, first published in 2004, offers many important contributions to the study of ecological inference.
PART FOUR
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 18 May 2010
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Index
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 13 September 2004, pp 409-421
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Contents
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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PART ONE
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 18 May 2010
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Contributors
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 18 May 2010
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- 13 September 2004, pp vii-viii
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INTRODUCTION
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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Information in Ecological Inference: An Introduction
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 18 May 2010
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Summary
Researchers in a diverse variety of fields often need to know about individual-level behavior and are not able to collect it directly. In these situations, where survey research or other means of individual-level data collection are infeasible, ecological inference is the best and often the only hope of making progress. Ecological inference is the process of extracting clues about individual behavior from information reported at the group or aggregate level.
For example, sociologists and historians try to learn who voted for the Nazi party in Weimar Germany, where thoughts of survey research are seven decades too late. Marketing researchers study the effects of advertising on the purchasing behavior of individuals, where only zip-code-level purchasing and demographic information are available. Political scientists and politicians study precinct-level electoral data and U.S. Census demographic data to learn about the success of candidate appeals with different voter groups in numerous small areal units where surveys have been infeasible (for cost or confidentiality reasons). To determine whether the U.S. Voting Rights Act can be applied in redistricting cases, expert witnesses, attorneys, judges, and government officials must infer whether African Americans and other minority groups vote differently from whites, even though the secret ballot hinders the process and surveys in racially polarized contexts are known to be of little value.
Frontmatter
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 18 May 2010
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PART THREE
- Edited by Gary King, Harvard University, Massachusetts, Ori Rosen, University of Pittsburgh, Martin A. Tanner, Northwestern University, Illinois
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- Ecological Inference
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- 18 May 2010
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