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Using polygenic scores and clinical data for bipolar disorder patient stratification and lithium response prediction: machine learning approach
- Micah Cearns, Azmeraw T. Amare, Klaus Oliver Schubert, Anbupalam Thalamuthu, Joseph Frank, Fabian Streit, Mazda Adli, Nirmala Akula, Kazufumi Akiyama, Raffaella Ardau, Bárbara Arias, Jean-Michel Aubry, Lena Backlund, Abesh Kumar Bhattacharjee, Frank Bellivier, Antonio Benabarre, Susanne Bengesser, Joanna M. Biernacka, Armin Birner, Clara Brichant-Petitjean, Pablo Cervantes, Hsi-Chung Chen, Caterina Chillotti, Sven Cichon, Cristiana Cruceanu, Piotr M. Czerski, Nina Dalkner, Alexandre Dayer, Franziska Degenhardt, Maria Del Zompo, J. Raymond DePaulo, Bruno Étain, Peter Falkai, Andreas J. Forstner, Louise Frisen, Mark A. Frye, Janice M. Fullerton, Sébastien Gard, Julie S. Garnham, Fernando S. Goes, Maria Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Paul Grof, Ryota Hashimoto, Joanna Hauser, Urs Heilbronner, Stefan Herms, Per Hoffmann, Andrea Hofmann, Liping Hou, Yi-Hsiang Hsu, Stephane Jamain, Esther Jiménez, Jean-Pierre Kahn, Layla Kassem, Po-Hsiu Kuo, Tadafumi Kato, John Kelsoe, Sarah Kittel-Schneider, Sebastian Kliwicki, Barbara König, Ichiro Kusumi, Gonzalo Laje, Mikael Landén, Catharina Lavebratt, Marion Leboyer, Susan G. Leckband, Mario Maj, the Major Depressive Disorder Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, Mirko Manchia, Lina Martinsson, Michael J. McCarthy, Susan McElroy, Francesc Colom, Marina Mitjans, Francis M. Mondimore, Palmiero Monteleone, Caroline M. Nievergelt, Markus M. Nöthen, Tomas Novák, Claire O'Donovan, Norio Ozaki, Vincent Millischer, Sergi Papiol, Andrea Pfennig, Claudia Pisanu, James B. Potash, Andreas Reif, Eva Reininghaus, Guy A. Rouleau, Janusz K. Rybakowski, Martin Schalling, Peter R. Schofield, Barbara W. Schweizer, Giovanni Severino, Tatyana Shekhtman, Paul D. Shilling, Katzutaka Shimoda, Christian Simhandl, Claire M. Slaney, Alessio Squassina, Thomas Stamm, Pavla Stopkova, Fasil Tekola-Ayele, Alfonso Tortorella, Gustavo Turecki, Julia Veeh, Eduard Vieta, Stephanie H. Witt, Gloria Roberts, Peter P. Zandi, Martin Alda, Michael Bauer, Francis J. McMahon, Philip B. Mitchell, Thomas G. Schulze, Marcella Rietschel, Scott R. Clark, Bernhard T. Baune
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- Journal:
- The British Journal of Psychiatry / Volume 220 / Issue 4 / April 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 28 February 2022, pp. 219-228
- Print publication:
- April 2022
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- Article
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Background
Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment.
AimsTo use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder.
MethodThis study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework.
ResultsThe best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data.
ConclusionsUsing PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.
Accuracy of hands v. household measures as portion size estimation aids
- Alice A. Gibson, Michelle S. H. Hsu, Anna M. Rangan, Radhika V. Seimon, Crystal M. Y. Lee, Arpita Das, Charles H. Finch, Amanda Sainsbury
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- Journal:
- Journal of Nutritional Science / Volume 5 / 2016
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 11 July 2016, e29
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Accurate estimation of food portion size is critical in dietary studies. Hands are potentially useful as portion size estimation aids; however, their accuracy has not been tested. The aim of the present study was to test the accuracy of a novel portion size estimation method using the width of the fingers as a ‘ruler’ to measure the dimensions of foods (‘finger width method’), as well as fists and thumb or finger tips. These hand measures were also compared with household measures (cups and spoons). A total of sixty-seven participants (70 % female; age 32·7 (sd 13·7) years; BMI 23·2 (sd 3·5) kg/m2) attended a 1·5 h session in which they estimated the portion sizes of forty-two pre-weighed foods and liquids. Hand measurements were used in conjunction with geometric formulas to convert estimations to volumes. Volumes determined with hand and household methods were converted to estimated weights using density factors. Estimated weights were compared with true weights, and the percentage difference from the true weight was used to compare accuracy between the hand and household methods. Of geometrically shaped foods and liquids estimated with the finger width method, 80 % were within ±25 % of the true weight of the food, and 13 % were within ±10 %, in contrast to 29 % of those estimated with the household method being within ±25 % of the true weight of the food, and 8 % being within ±10 %. For foods that closely resemble a geometric shape, the finger width method provides a novel and acceptably accurate method of estimating portion size.