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5 - Policy Workers Tinkering with Uncertainty: Dutch Econometric Policy Advice in Action
- Edited by Hal Colebatch, Robert Hoppe, Mirko Noordegraaf
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- Book:
- Working for Policy
- Published by:
- Amsterdam University Press
- Published online:
- 22 January 2021
- Print publication:
- 15 July 2012, pp 91-110
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- Chapter
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Summary
Experts and civil servants at work, together
Every year, on the third Tuesday of September, the Dutch cabinet presents its plans to Parliament for the coming year. There is much pomp and circumstance, which is unusual for a political culture that is otherwise proud of its modesty and restraint. The Queen is transported to the Parliament buildings in a golden carriage, cheered on by the masses and accompanied by an extensive corps of mounted guards. The horses are brought in from all over the country for the event, because the state no longer owns enough horses. The Queen's state of the nation speech then kicks off weeks of Parliamentary bickering over the budget, which assesses the work of the government in great detail. MPs of the various parties in Dutch politics bicker over each and every detail in the budget, but one feature of the budget is beyond debate: the assessment of future economic growth by the nation's official econometricians is considered not only the very best estimate but the only one that really matters. In spite of obvious and acknowledged uncertainties that could make or break the nation's wealth – such as wars, bank crises, or simply bad weather – the assessments made by these experts keeps the level of disagreement to a minimum: everyone ends up agreeing on the state of the economy, both currently and in the near future.
This situation is pervasive in Dutch politics and is all the more remarkable because the relationship between specialized experts and policymakers is generally a difficult one. Civil servants and politicians typically complain that experts do not provide ‘useful’ knowledge or do not appreciate the context in which knowledge will be put to work. Conversely, experts complain that policymakers abuse their findings or fail to understand the qualifications and uncertainties of the advice. In order to maintain cooperation, both parties need to adjust mutual expectations and negotiate their roles.
This chapter analyzes how this ‘boundary work,’ as we call it, occurs at one particular body that provides economic expert knowledge to the Dutch government, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
Preface
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- By Rob Hoppe
- Robert Hoppe, Universiteit Twente, The Netherlands
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- Book:
- The Governance of Problems
- Published by:
- Bristol University Press
- Published online:
- 01 September 2022
- Print publication:
- 01 May 2010, pp ix-x
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Summary
The idea for this book emerged gradually. In 1989, in my inaugural address at the University of Amsterdam, I made the case for a less solution-oriented and relatively more problem-oriented approach in the discipline of public administration. I introduced the problem typology, which also organises this book; and on this basis proposed a more problem-oriented heuristic for policy design by arguing from problem sensing through problem definition to problem solving.
Two decades and many publications later, these seminal ideas have worked their way into the discourse, and some of the practice for policy making in the Dutch public sector. For example, the problem typology and its implications for practical policy making were spelled out in guidelines for interactive technology assessment, published in 1997 by the Rathenau Institute (Grin, Van de Graaf and Hoppe, 1997). Later, the problem types were included as a tool for policy/risk analysis in the Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and the (then) Environment and Nature Assessment Agency's (MNP) (2003) joint Guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication (van der Sluijs et al, 2003). More recently, the problem typology and the notion of more problem-oriented policy making organises and informs the Scientific Council for Government Policy's advice entitled Learning government. The case for problem-oriented politics (Lerende overheid: Een pleidooi voor probleemgerichte politiek) (WRR, 2006).
It was only logical, then, to think that it might be useful to put all my major, single- as well as co-authored, publications on this theme between the covers of one book. A research leave grant by the Dutch Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) ‘Shifts in Governance’ research programme offered the opportunity to start writing; a subsequent sabbatical leave granted me the time to finish a first draft. Although the title The governance of problems was in my mind from the very beginning, only while writing it did it dawn on me that doing the concept full justice implied much more than just updating earlier publications and writing some new connecting texts. Thus, from a mere rearrangement of previous publications, the book evolved into its present shape: a sustained reflection on the Lasswellian idea of a problem-oriented policy analysis adapted to governance for the 21st century; and a policy analysis adapted to today's vastly more complex practices of boundary work between science, society, policy and politics.