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11 - Conclusion Toward a whole-of-society approach to counter-radicalizationAll Contributors
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- By Sarkin Kano, Kate Meagher, Kate Meagher, M. Sani Umar, Abubakar K. Monguno, Ibrahim Umara, Rahmane Idrissa, Julie G. Sanda, David Ehrhardt, M. Sani Umar, Zainab Usman, Sherine El Taraboulsi-Mccarthy, Khadija Gambo Hawaja, Murray Last, Kate Meagher, Ibrahim Haruna Hassan, M. Sani Umar, David Ehrhardt
- Edited by Abdul Raufu Mustapha, Kate Meagher
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- Book:
- Overcoming Boko Haram
- Published by:
- Boydell & Brewer
- Published online:
- 21 March 2020
- Print publication:
- 17 January 2020, pp 304-324
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- Chapter
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Summary
Introduction
As the Boko Haram insurgency heads into its second decade, it seems no quick end is in sight. What are the possible scenarios for the future trajectory of Boko Haram, and in particular what is its endgame? While predicting the future is a very hazardous business, plausible endgame scenarios can be envisioned based on reflection on the metamorphoses of Boko Haram, careful analysis of the dynamics of its current situation, and prognosis of its emergent trends. The formal declaration of the Boko Haram Caliphate and its territorial control over much of Borno State are no more. Yet the ‘technical military defeat’ proclaimed by President Muhammad Buhari in 2015 has not prevented Boko Haram from carrying out attacks not only in rural areas, but in big towns and even military bases, often killing Nigerian soldiers – as many as 100 soldiers in one attack. Negotiations leading to the release of Boko Haram captives in exchange for freeing incarcerated leaders of the insurgency came about more than a year after the proclamation of the technical defeat. It seems that decisive defeat leading to complete surrender and total cessation of hostilities is not on the immediate horizon. Yet what scenario is likely to unfold?
This chapter explores this question by drawing insights from the literature on the growth, decline, and end of past insurgent insurgencies and civil wars. Theoretically, one may argue that there are only a few possible outcomes to an insurgency: the government may defeat the insurgents; the insurgents may defeat the government; both parties may reach a negotiated settlement; there may be a stalemate; or the insurgency may transform into something else, such as organized crime. We suggest that rather than one distinct ending, Boko Haram is likely to continue its previous patterns of transformations and factionalization, precluding decisive outcomes. Unless distinctively different approaches are taken by the state, likely endgames include a negotiated settlement with some factions, the further entrenchment of the war economy with its continuous menacing of rural areas by others, and some elements potentially becoming absorbed into the global terrorist networks of the Islamic State.
Foreword
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- By Sarkin Kano
- Edited by Abdul Raufu Mustapha, Kate Meagher
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- Book:
- Overcoming Boko Haram
- Published by:
- Boydell & Brewer
- Published online:
- 21 March 2020
- Print publication:
- 17 January 2020, pp xx-xxvi
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- Chapter
- Export citation
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Summary
Writing a foreword to this collection of well-researched articles on Islamic radicalization in northern Nigeria was always going to be a difficult task. The range of authors, subjects and viewpoints is such that any attempt to capture a single dominant theme on which there is consensus would be presumptuous. And this is as it should be, given the complexity of this subject and the all-too-frequent tendency to over-simplify the phenomenon of Islamic radicalization.
Perhaps the best way to begin is, by way of tribute, to recollect my own relationship with my friend Professor Mustapha who passed away in 2017. Using our relationship as an entry point may help clarify my own approach to understanding radicalization. My admission to study Economics in the faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (FASS) at Ahmadu Bello University brought me into contact with Rauf and a few of his colleagues among the post-graduate students and graduate assistants, including Alkasum Abba, Sule Bello, Jibrin Ibrahim, Ayesha Imam, Altine Jafar, Sanusi Abubakar and George Kwanashie. Although Economics was considered the department of ‘reactionaries’ in the faculty, I spent most of my time with friends in political science, sociology and history. I soon found myself among a group of young undergraduates who took Rauf and his comrades as role models.
After my postgraduate Studies at ABU, I joined the academic staff as a graduate Assistant in the Economics department in the summer of 1983. Rauf and I briefly shared the same path as young academics committed to rigorous political economy and a materialist conception of history, but our paths diverged when Rauf went on to Oxford for his doctorate, while I left academia completely for a life in the banking industry. In 1991, I took a long break from banking to pursue a long-term interest in Islamic Studies at the University of Africa in Sudan, where I first studied Arabic before obtaining a second BA in Sharia and Islamic Studies in 1997. I returned to my banking career and ended up being appointed Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2009.
My background in political economy and Islamic law has shaped my reading of Muslim society.