Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-9pm4c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T13:08:54.026Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The US–China Naval Balance in the Asia-Pacific: An Overview

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2017

Lyle Goldstein
Lyle Goldstein*
Affiliation:
US Naval War College, Newport Rhode Island, USA. Email: goldstel@usnwc.edu.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A truism in strategic studies holds that warfare is highly complex and unpredictable. What appears to be a stable and predictable military balance can be suddenly overthrown by innovative doctrines or cunning strategies. This paper attempts to fill a perceived gap in strategic studies analysis with respect to US–China naval conflict scenarios. The author is concerned that most Western analyses on the subject tend to be simplistic and unduly optimistic. The approach in this paper follows a “Chinese style” in that it examines the Asia-Pacific strategic balance as a series of interacting military campaigns. The results of the analysis yield that the US retains a strong advantage in certain warfare domains, to be sure. Yet, the assumption that the US military has a decisive advantage in the relevant scenarios becomes dubious in light of the potentially devastating blow against US and allied bases that could be made by PLA conventional missile forces. Moreover, a Chinese advantage in the use of offensive mine warfare, when combined with China's ability to prevent US and allied aerial anti-submarine forces from flying, could combine to roll back, or at least significantly limit, Washington's heretofore decisive undersea advantage.

摘要

在战略理论而言, 战争的进程是非常复杂和不可预测的。一个似乎稳定和可预测的军事平衡能突然被创新军事教义或灵巧的策略推翻。本文试图填补中美海上军事冲突的战略研究。作者认为, 大多数西方分析人对这个问题的判断往往是简单或过于乐观的。本文采用“中国式”方式将亚太战略平衡作为一系列相互影响的军事行动。 分析结果表明, 美国在某些战争领域仍然保留强大的优势。然而,鉴于中国常规导弹可能造成对美国与盟国的潜在破坏性打击,美军在有关情况下具有所谓决定性优势的假设存有相当多的疑点。 此外,解放军在使用进攻性水雷战争方面的优势,与中国在防止美国和盟军在空中反潜部队飞行的能力,也有望被结合起来对抗美国军事实力,或至少大大削减美军水下作战的决定性优势。 在这种情况下,中美海军对抗的最终结果似乎还是一个未知数。

Keywords

People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)Sino-US naval balanceSino-US military balance放军海军中美海军平衡中美军事平衡
Type
Special section: The People's Liberation Army in the Xi Jinping Era
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 232 , December 2017 , pp. 904 - 931
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © SOAS University of London 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bergin, Bob. 2013. “The growth of China's air defenses: responding to covert overflights, 1949–74.” Studies in Intelligence 57(2), 19–28.Google Scholar
Carty, Peter. 2015. “Arms race between US, China and Russia to develop hypersonic missiles and fighter aircraft,” International Business Times, 27 July, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/arms-race-between-us-china-russia-develop-hypersonic-missiles-fighter-aircraft-1508241. Accessed 20 September 2015.Google Scholar
Chan, Minnie. 2017. “As overseas ambitions expand, China plans 400 per cent increase to marine corps numbers, sources say,” South China Morning Post, 13 March, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2078245/overseas-ambitions-expand-china-plans-400pc-increase. Accessed on 18 June 2017.Google Scholar
Friedberg, Aaron. 2010. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Fu, Jinzhu. 2012. “Meiguo haijun de shuilei nengli pingxi” (US mine warfare capability analysis). Xiandai jianchuan October, 38.Google Scholar
Gao, Yue. 2012. “Shuixia leiting” (Undersea thunderbolt). Jianzai wuqi April, 81.Google Scholar
Giarra, Paul. 2011. “A Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile: implications for the US navy.” In Erickson, Andrew and Goldstein, Lyle (eds.), Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 359–374.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Lyle. 2008. “China's Falklands lessons.” IISS Survival 50, 65–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, Lyle. 2016a. “China's new coast guard vessels are designed for rapid conversion into navy frigates,” The National Interest, 29 October, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/chinas-new-coast-guard-vessels-are-designed-rapid-conversion-18221. Accessed on 28 November 2016.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Lyle. 2016b. “China's new missile torpedo could curb US submarine power,” The National Interest, 16 August, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/its-missile-its-torpedo-its-chinas-new-anti-submarine-weapon-17374?page=2. Accessed on 28 November 2016.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Lyle, Martinez, Miguel and Murray, William. 2011. “China's future airborne antisubmarine capabilities: light at the end of the tunnel?” In Erickson, Andrew and Goldstein, Lyle (eds.), Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press.Google Scholar
He, Shaoli. 2012. “Chulei he ‘Telipoli’ hao” (A contact mine and the ‘Tripoli’). Xiandai jianchuan March, 60.Google Scholar
Heginbotham, Eric. 2015. The US–China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power 1996–2017. Washington, DC: RAND.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hu, Dongying, Rui, Huang and Guangyou, Cai. 2017. “Tuijin qianting bingli zouxiang yuanyang de jidian sikao” (Several thoughts on advancing the submarine force to the ocean). Jianchuan dianzi gongcheng January, 1–3.Google Scholar
Huang, Panyue. 2017. “Dongfeng-41 will bring China more respect,” Global Times, 29 January, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2078245/overseas-ambitions-expand-china-plans-400pc-increase. Accessed on 18 June 2017.Google Scholar
Jiang, Hao, and Yu, Cong. 2014. “Cong nanhai shang kong lanjie shijian kan wo guo xinxing kongjian anquan” (Examining our country's new security space from the vantage point of the South China Sea air interception). Binggong keji 20, 21–23.Google Scholar
Kazianis, Harry. 2014. “China's underwater A2/AD strategy: new research suggests China is deploying a fixed ocean-floor acoustic arrays system for anti-submarine warfare,” The Diplomat, 6 May, http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/chinas-underwater-a2ad-strategy/. Accessed 18 September 2015.Google Scholar
Keck, Zachary. 2015. “This is how America intends to sink China's warships,” National Interest, 8 August, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-america-plans-sink-chinas-warships-13527. Accessed 15 September 2015.Google Scholar
Kwok, Kristine, and Chan, Minnie. 2015. “A swift proposal: US wants coastguard agreement with China to help keep peace at sea,” South China Morning Post, 26 August, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1852724/swift-proposal-us-wants-coastguard-agreement-china-help. Accessed 15 September 2015.Google Scholar
Li, Daguang. 2016. “Jiang gaibian weilai fanqian zuozhan moshi de ‘haishang lieshou’” (The “Sea Hunter” will change the model of future anti-submarine warfare). Guofang keji gongye June, 54–57.Google Scholar
Li, Jie. 2015. “Yuanhe jiali tuijin ‘haishang sichou zhilu’ zhanlüe” (Why push the “maritime silk road” strategy). Junshi wenzhai September, 6–10.Google Scholar
Li, Zhikai. 2012. “Lanjing shen qian bulei zhen” (A blue whale lays a minefield in the hidden deep), Renmin haijun, 21 March, 1.Google Scholar
Li, Zoe. 2014. “China, Vietnam, the Philippines collide amidst escalating South China Sea tensions,” CNN, 9 May, http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/08/world/asia/south-china-sea-drilling/. Accessed 15 September 2015.Google Scholar
Liu, Bing. 2015. “Yuenan jiluo qianting rushi chengjun” (When will the Vietnamese Kilo-class submarines become operational). Jianchuan zhishi February, 80–81.Google Scholar
Liu, Dahai, Chenchao, Lian, Fangming, Liu, Chunjuan, Wang, Ruixue, Ji and Xiaoxuan, Li. 2016. “Guanyu Zhongguo daxiyang haiyang zhanlüe buju de jidian sikao” (Some views on the ocean strategic layout of the Atlantic Ocean for China). Haiyang kaifa yu guanli May, 3–7.Google Scholar
Luo, Haitao. 2015a. “Zhongguo ruhe fazhan qingzhuan xuanyiji” (How can China develop a tilt rotor aircraft), Zhongguo guofang bao, 10 March, 7.Google Scholar
Luo, Haitao. 2015b. “Zhongguo ruhe fazhan duanchui zhanji” (How can China develop a short take off fighter), Zhongguo guofang bao, 5 May, 8.Google Scholar
Martinson, Ryan. 2015. “China's second navy.” USNI Proceedings (April), http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2015-04-0/chinas-second-navy. Accessed 15 September 2015.Google Scholar
May, Ernest. 2000. Strange Victory: Hitler's Conquest of France. New York: Hill and Wang.Google Scholar
Miks, Jason. 2012. “China, Philippines in standoff,” The Diplomat, 11 April, http://thediplomat.com/2012/04/china-philippines-in-standoff/. Accessed 15 September 2015.Google Scholar
Office of Naval Intelligence. 2015. The PLA Navy: New Capabilities and Missions for the 21st Century. Suitland, MD: DoD.Google Scholar
Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2015. Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China. Washington, DC: DoD.Google Scholar
Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2017. Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China. Washington, DC: DoD.Google Scholar
O'Rourke, Ron. 2015. China's Naval Modernization: Implications for US Navy Capabilities – Background and Issues for Congress. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Parameswaran, Prashanth. 2015. “Will China have a mini-US navy by 2020?” The Diplomat, 8 July, http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/will-china-have-a-mini-us-navy-by-2020/. Accessed 15 September 2015.Google Scholar
Qiu, Zhenwei. 2013. “Meiguo heqianting ruhe weizhe Zhongguo” (How US nuclear submarines are containing China). Jianchuan zhishi July, 28–31.Google Scholar
Qiu, Zhenwei. 2014. “Zhongguo xuyao shenme yang de gongjixing heqianting he xunhang daodan heqianting” (What kind of nuclear attack submarine and cruise missile nuclear submarine does China need). Jianchuan zhishi January, 75–77.Google Scholar
Rogoway, Tyler. 2014. “Sweden's little carrier killer,” Foxtrot Alpha, 24 October, http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/sweden-has-a-sub-thats-so-deadly-the-us-navy-hired-it-t-1649695984. Accessed 21 September 2015.Google Scholar
Sanger, David, and Broad, William. 2015. “China making some missiles more powerful,” New York Times, 16 May, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/17/world/asia/china-making-some-missiles-more-powerful.html?_r=0. Accessed on 28 September 2015.Google Scholar
Sciutto, Jim. 2015. “Chinese navy ships entered US waters off Alaskan coast,” CNN, 4 September, http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/politics/china-ships-alaska-us-waters/. Accessed 18 September 2015.Google Scholar
Shlapak, David, Orletsky, David, Reid, Toy, Tanner, Murray Scot and Wilson, Barry. 2009. A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the Taiwan Dispute. Washington, DC: RAND.Google Scholar
Tate, Andrew. 2016. “China launches 40th Jiangdao-class Corvette,” IHS Jane's 360, 3 November, http://www.janes.com/article/65088/china-launches-40th-jiangdao-class-corvette. Accessed 28 November 2016.Google Scholar
Thompson, Mark. 2010. “US missiles deployed near China send a message,” Time, 8 July, http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2002378,00.html. Accessed 18 September 2015.Google Scholar
Till, Geoffrey. 2004. Seapower: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century. London: Frank Cass.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, Chenfei, and Qianli, Deng. 2013. “Zai zheli ting hai: ji wo guo shouge shenhai haidi guance wang jidi chuanjian shimo” (Here they quietly listen to the ocean: a complete record of our country's first ocean bottom sensor system base), Zhongguo kexue ribao, 26 March, 1.Google Scholar
Wang, Han. 2014. “Zhi-20 xinxing zhishengji de jianzai yingyong qianjing fenxi” (Analysis of the prospects for the new Type Z-20 ship-based helicopter). Xiandai jianchuan February, 44–48.Google Scholar
Wei, Tian. 2014. “055 shi Zhongguo haijun de mubiao jian ma” (Is the O55 the Chinese navy's objective ship?). Jianzai Wuqi November, 37–45.Google Scholar
White, Hugh. 2012. The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power. Australia: Black, Inc.Google Scholar
Wu, Riqiang. 2016. “Zhongguo zhanlüe heqianting kaishi zhanlüe xunhangle ma?” (Have Chinese strategic nuclear submarines begun their patrols?). Xiandai jianchuan January, 32–35.Google Scholar
Yi, Ming. 2012. “Shuileizhan ruhe bulei: fang Qingdao qianting xueyuan Ni Guocang zhaoshou” (Deployment of mines in mine warfare: an interview with Professor Ni Guocang of the Qingdao Submarine Academy). Binggong keji January, 33–36.Google Scholar
Yin, He. 2014. “Zuozhan xuyao de biange: qianxi Zhongguo haijun kongji duihai daji liliang de jianli yu gengxin” (Transformation to fulfil combat requirements: a discussion of the building and improvement of China's aerial maritime strike forces). Jianzai wuqi October, 18–29.Google Scholar
You, Min. 2013. “Zhongguo ruhe fangfan Meiguo heqianting ” (How China can guard against US nuclear submarines). Jianchuan zhishi July, 32–37.Google Scholar
Zhang, Chuanhua. 2016. “Yongshudao bushu junyong feiji de jiazhi” (The value of basing military aircraft at Yongshu Island). Xiandai jianchuan June, 40–44.Google Scholar
Zhang, Jie. 2013. “Huangyandao moshi yu Zhongguo haiyang weiquan de zhuanxiang” (The Scarborough Shoal Model and the shift in China's maritime sovereignty protection). Dongnanya yanjiu April, 25.Google Scholar
Zhang, Qian. 2013. “Riben ziweidui jianglin tan Riben ‘daoxia fangwei’” (JMSDF admiral discusses Japan's “defence of islets”). Xiandai jianchuan June, 16.Google Scholar
Zhang, Yunlong, Xu, Zhang and Liang, Cao. 2014. “Jiguang zhidao jishu zai chushui gongji shuilei shang shiyong de kexingxing tantao” (A feasibility study on laser-guided technology for water exit attack mine). Shuilei zhan yu jianchuan fanghu February, 41–44.Google Scholar
Zhao, Hui. 2013. “Bie lao na ‘quefa shizhan’ shuo shi er” (Do not consider the “lack of real combat experience” as a major issue), Renmin haijun, 28 August, 3.Google Scholar
Zhao, Lei. 2014. “Navy to get three new nuclear subs,” China Daily, 3 April, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-04/03/content_19989094.htm. Accessed 23 September 2015.Google Scholar