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Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes
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  • Page extent: 250 pages
  • Size: 228 x 152 mm
  • Weight: 0.37 kg
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 (ISBN-13: 9780521310956 | ISBN-10: 0521310954)

DOI: 10.2277/0521310954

  • There was also a Hardback of this title but it is no longer available
  • Published October 1986

Manufactured on demand: supplied direct from the printer

 (Stock level updated: 17:00 GMT, 08 October 2015)


Growing out of a conference on Expectations Formation and Economic Disequilibrium held in New York City in 1981, the papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes in which individual rationality is no guarantee of convergence to the 'correct' model and the equilibrium coordination of agents' plans. They reject the 'optimality' argument for the rational expectations hypothesis, opening the door to other hypotheses of optimal expectations of agents in the decentralized market economy.


Preface; 1. Introduction Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps; 2. The trouble with 'rational expectations' and the problem of inflation stabilization Edmund S. Phelps; Comment Phillip Cagan; 3. Expectations of others' expectations and the transitional nonneutrality of fully believed systematic monetary policy Juan Carlos Di Tata; Comment Clive Bull; 4. The stability of rational expectations in macroeconomic models George Evans; Comment Guillermo A. Calvo; 5. Individual rationality, decentralization, and the rational expectations hypothesis Roman Frydman; 6. Convergence to rational expectations equilibrium Margaret Bray; Comment Roy Radner; 7. A distinction between the unconditional expectational equilibrium and the rational expectations equilibrium Roman Frydman; 8. On mistaken beliefs and resultant equilibria Alan Kirman; Comment Jerry Green; 9. Equilibrium theory with learning and disparate expectations: some issues and methods Robert M. Townsend; Comment John B. Taylor; 10. Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations: some reflections and conjectures Axel Leijonhufvud; Comment Frank Hahn; Index.


'I recommend the book to economists interested in rational expectations for their own reading and for required reading in the graduate courses they teach.' Journal of Economic Literature

'After reading this excellent, stimulating book the uncommitted reader may well feel that there are several logical or methodological problems which imply that the usual class of models which embodies the rational expectations hypothesis is unattractive as a basis for some form of economic analysis, in particular, macroeconomic policy design … I suspect that the concept of model theoretic expectations will generate useful insights in the modelling of expectations in a number of areas such as asset markets or arbitrage process. It naturally leads to a consideration of expectations generated as some weighted average of different models. I greatly enjoyed this book and can strongly recommend it.' The Economic Journal


Roman Frydman, Edmund S. Phelps, Phillip Cagan, Juan Carlos Di Tata, Clive Bull, George Evans, Guillermo A. Calvo, Margaret Bray, Roy Radner, Alan Kirman, Jerry Green, Robert M. Townsend, John B. Taylor, Axel Leijonhufvud, Frank Hahn

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