Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.
List of figures; List of tables; Preface; List of conference participants; 1. Primary commodity prices: an introduction to the major policy and modelling challenges L. Alan Winters and David Sapsford; Part I. Econometric Analysis: 2. Estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations: the case of commodity markets G. S. Maddala; 3. Modelling expectations formation in primary commodity markets Christopher L. Gilbert and Theodosios B. Palaskas; 4. The prices of perennial crops: the role of rational expectations and commodity stocks Pravin K. Trivedi; Part II. Sectoral Studies: Foods, Materials and Energy: 5. Modelling the interactive effects of alternative sets of policies on agricultural prices Richard E. Just; 6. Price determination in the market for aluminium Anthony Bird; 7. Long-run factors in oil price formation Marian Radetzki; Part III. Stabilization Schemes: 8. The role of future markets as stabilizers of commodity earnings Andrew J. Hughes Hallett and Prathap Ramanujam; 9. Primary commodity prices and exchange-rate volatility Paul Kofman, Jean Marie Viaene and Casper G. de Vries; 10. Commodity policy: price stabilization versus financing Roland Herrmann, Kees Burger and Hidde P. Smit; Index.