Virtually all of contemporary macroeconomics is underpinned by a Phillips curve of one variety or another; yet most of this literature displays a curious neglect of the theoretical dynamic stabilisation perspective provided by A. W. H. Phillips. This 2000 volume collected for the first time the major work of one of the great economists, integrating Phillips's empirical work with his theoretical contribution. In addition to twelve substantive chapters, twenty-nine economists including Lawrence Klein, James Meade, Thomas Sargent, Peter Phillips, David Hendry, William Baumol, Richard Lipsey and Geoffrey Harcourt highlight and interpret Phillips's ongoing influence. This volume also contains six of Phillips's previously unpublished essays, four of which were thought to have been lost. The fifth such essay (Phillips's second empirical Phillips curve) was previously an informal working paper of which few copies circulated, and the sixth essay is a forerunner of the Lucas Critique written by Phillips shortly before his death.
• Includes previously unseen papers from Bill Phillips' private collection • Important and original research on subject of great importance • Contributors are the most prestigious scholars working in economics and econometrics
Foreword A. Brown; Part I. Bill Phillips: Some Memories and Reflections: 1. A. W. H. Phillips: an extraordinary life R. Leeson; 2. The versatile genius J. Meade; 3. To be his colleague was to be his friend H. Phelps-Brown; 4. Phillips' adaptive expectations formula P. Cagan; 5. Economist-washing machine fixer E. Johnson; 6. Playing around with some data A. S. Schwier; 7. The Festchrift B. Silvestone; Part II. The Phillips Machine: 8. The origins of the machine in a personal context W. Newlyn; 9. The Phillips machine as a 'progressive' model D. Vines; 10. Mechanical models in economic dynamics A. W. Phillips; 11. The History of the Phillips Machine N. Barr; 12. Early reactions to Mark I and II G. Dorrance; 13. A superb explanatory device R. M. Goodwin; 14. The place of the Phillips machine in the history of computing D. Swade; Part III. Dynamic Stabilisation Optimal Control: 15. The optimal control articles A. Pagan; 16. Stabilisation policy in a closed economy A. W. Phillips; 17. Stabilisation policy and the time-forms of lagged responses A. W. Phillips; 18. Arnold Tustin's The Mechanism of Economic Systems: a review A. W. Phillips; 19. The growth articles A. R. Bergstrom; 20. A simple model of employment, money and prices in a growing economy A. W. Phillips; 21. Employment, inflation and growth A. W. Phillips; 22. Economic policy and development A. W. Phillips; 23. The famous Phillips curve article R. G. Lipsey; 24. The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957 A. W. Phillips; 25. The Melbourne paper J. Pitchford; 26. Wage changes and unemployment in Australia, 1947–58 A. W. Phillips; 27. Phillips and stabilisation policy as a threat to stability W. J. Baumol; 28. The Phillips curve in macroeconomics and econometrics L. R. Klein; 29. Bill Phillips' contribution to dynamic stabilisation policy S. J. Turnovsky; 30. A left Keynesian view of the Phillips curve G. C. Harcourt; 31. Interactions with a fellow research engineer-economist C. C. Holt; 32. Does modern econometrics replicate the Phillips curve? F. Shadman-Mehta; 33. The famous Phillips curve article: a note on its publications B. S. Yamey; Part IV. Econometrics Published Papers: 34. The Bill Phillips legacy of continuous time modelling and econometric model design P. Phillips; 35. The published papers P. Phillips; 36. The influence of A. W. Phillips on econometrics D. F. Hendry and G. E. Mizon; 37. An appreciation of A. W. Phillips L. P. Hansen and T. J. Sargent; 38. Some notes on the estimation of time-forms of reactions in interdependent dynamic systems A. W. Phillips; 39. Cybernetics and the regulation of economic systems A. W. Phillips; 40. The estimation of parameters in systems of stochastic differential equation A. W. Phillips; 41. Estimation, regulation, and prediction in interdependent dynamic systems A. W. Phillips and M. H. Quenouille; 42. The Walras-Bowley paper A. Pagan; 43. Estimation of systems of difference equations with moving average disturbances A. W. Phillips; Part V. Unpublished Papers: 44. The estimation of continuous time models A. R. Bergstrom; 45. Estimation in continuous time series models with autocorrelated disturbances A. W. Phillips; 46. Efficient fitting of rational spectral density functions A. W. Phillips; Part VI. Phillips' Foreshadowing of the Lucas Critique: 47. The Lucas critique: did Phillips make a comparable contribution R. Court; 48. Models for the control of economic fluctuations A. W. Phillips; 49. Statistical estimation for the purpose of economic regulation A. W. Phillips; 50. The last paper: a foreshadowing of the Lucas critique? A. W. Phillips.