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Politics and Uncertainty

Politics and Uncertainty
Theory, Models and Applications

$57.00 (C)

  • Date Published: September 1998
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521589154

$ 57.00 (C)
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About the Authors
  • Uncertainty is an ever-present and ineradicable aspect of politics, affecting all important issues of governance and policy. Rather than treating the uncertainty of politics as a mystery, this book provides an original and direct treatment of political uncertainty as a scientifically-knowable phenomenon. The author shows how probability and mathematical modeling can play a central role in understanding a range of complex and fundamental issues in both domestic and international politics.

    • A groundbreaking survey of one of the central and ineradicable features of political life - uncertainty
    • A unique attempt to bring formal mathematical analysis to a neglected subject, modelling uncertainty, giving case examples. No other book has tried to do this
    • Covers both domestic and international politics, and the methodology will be of interest to researchers not only in political science, but also in applied mathematics, and operations research
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    Reviews & endorsements

    "This is a profound book. It seeks to explore the basic configurations of political reality and expose its inherently uncertain foundations. In this, its central mission, it succeeds. It is also an ambitious book in seeking to lay the foundaitons for both micropolitical and macropolitical analysis. ...Cioffi-Revilla has given us a splendid essay on political uncertainty. He has presented a unique way of systematically decomposing political events into their constituent structures and highlighting the nature of their uncertainty in ways that enrich our understanding of politics." Manus I Midlarsky, American Political Science Review

    "Claudio Cioffi-Revilla ranks high among political theorists who advise the use of mathematics to make political science more precise and scientific. Politics and Uncertainty couples politics with randomness, from which it follows that mathematical models can make what is improbable predictable." Bertil L. Hanson, Perspectives on Political Science

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    Product details

    • Date Published: September 1998
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521589154
    • length: 364 pages
    • dimensions: 229 x 152 x 21 mm
    • weight: 0.53kg
    • contains: 43 b/w illus. 20 tables
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Part I. Foundations:
    1. Introduction
    Part II. Macropolitics:
    2. Behavior of political variables
    3. General macropolitical principles
    4. Special macropolitical principles
    Part III. Micropolitics:
    5. Occurrence of political events
    6. General Micropolitical principles
    7. Special micropolitical principles
    Part IV. Conclusions:
    8. Synthesis.

  • Author

    Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, University of Colorado, Boulder

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