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Advances in Decision Analysis
From Foundations to Applications

$52.00 (Z)

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Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Ronald A. Howard, Howard Raiffa, Lawrence D. Phillips, Ralph L. Keeney, Steven C. Hora, Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler, Ross D. Shachter, David Heckerman, David E. Bell, Ralph L. Keeney, Robert F. Nau, Vicki M. Bier, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr, M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr, Barbara Mellers, Connson Locke, Don N. Kleinmuntz, James E. Matheson, David Matheson, Carl S. Spetzler, James K. Sebenius, John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia Vladimir, I. Oussanov, Dennis M. Buede, Terry A. Bresnick, Phillip C. Beccue, Jeffrey S. Stonebraker, Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, James L. Corner
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  • Date Published: July 2007
  • availability: In stock
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521682305

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About the Authors
  • By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers

    • Covers the broad scope of decision analysis at an advanced level
    • Chapters written by authors that have made significant contributions to decision analysis
    • Suitable as a supplementary text for advanced courses in decision analysis
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    Product details

    • Date Published: July 2007
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521682305
    • length: 638 pages
    • dimensions: 235 x 155 x 30 mm
    • weight: 0.87kg
    • contains: 40 tables
    • availability: In stock
  • Table of Contents

    1. Introduction Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr and Detlof von Winterfeldt
    Part I. History and Foundations of Decision Analysis:
    2. The emergence of decision analysis Ralph F. Miles, Jr
    3. The foundations of decision analysis revisited Ronald A. Howard
    4. Decision analysis: a personal account of how it got started and evolved Howard Raiffa
    5. Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlof von Winterfeldt
    Part II. Structuring Decision Problems:
    6. Defining a decision analytic structure Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards
    7. Developing objectives and attributes Ralph L. Keeney
    Part III. Probabilities and Bayes Nets:
    8. Eliciting probabilities from experts Steven C. Hora
    9. Aggregation of expert probability judgments Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler
    10. Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams Ross D. Shachter
    11. A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks David Heckerman
    Part IV. Utilities:
    12. Utility and risk preferences David E. Bell
    13. Practical value models Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt
    14. Extensions of the subjective expected utility model Robert F. Nau
    Part V. Risk Analysis:
    15. Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr
    16. The engineering risk analysis method and some applications M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell
    17. Health risk analysis for risk management decision-making Louis Anthony Cox, Jr
    Part VI. Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context:
    18. What have we learned from our mistakes? Barbara Mellers and Connson Locke
    19. Decision conferencing Lawrence D. Phillips
    20. Resource allocation decisions Don N. Kleinmuntz
    21. From decision analysis to the decision organization James E. Matheson and David Matheson
    22. Building decision competency in organizations Carl S. Spetzler
    23. Negotiation analysis: between decisions and games James K. Sebenius
    Part VII. Applications of Decision Analysis:
    24. The adoption of multi-attribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia and Vladimir I. Oussanov
    25. Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons: reflections on a controversial decision analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt
    26. Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick
    27. Balancing environmental and operational objectives in a nuclear refueling strategy Phillip C. Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker
    28. Perspective on decision analysis applications Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, and James L. Corner.

  • Editors

    Ward Edwards
    Ward Edwards (1927-2005) received his Ph.D. in Psychology from Harvard University. He was the recipient of many awards including the Frank P. Ramsey Award from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS in 1988 and the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award in Applied Psychology from the American Psychological Association in 1996. He wrote more than one hundred journal articles and books including Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research and Utility Theories: Measurement and Applications.

    Ralph F. Miles Jr., California Institute of Technology
    Ralph F. Miles, Jr., received his Ph.D. in Physics from the California Institute of Technology and is a consultant in risk and decision analysis. He was the editor and coauthor of Systems Concepts and has written many articles. Until 1991, he worked as an engineer, supervisor, and manager in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology.

    Detlof von Winterfeldt, University of Southern California
    Detlof von Winterfeldt is Professor and Deputy Dean of the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California. He is also Director of the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events at USC. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan. He cowrote Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research with Ward Edwards.

    Contributors

    Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr, Detlof von Winterfeldt, Ronald A. Howard, Howard Raiffa, Lawrence D. Phillips, Ralph L. Keeney, Steven C. Hora, Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler, Ross D. Shachter, David Heckerman, David E. Bell, Ralph L. Keeney, Robert F. Nau, Vicki M. Bier, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr, M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Louis Anthony Cox, Jr, Barbara Mellers, Connson Locke, Don N. Kleinmuntz, James E. Matheson, David Matheson, Carl S. Spetzler, James K. Sebenius, John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia Vladimir, I. Oussanov, Dennis M. Buede, Terry A. Bresnick, Phillip C. Beccue, Jeffrey S. Stonebraker, Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, James L. Corner

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