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Heuristics and Biases

Heuristics and Biases
The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

$69.99

textbook
Thomas D. Gilovich, Dale W. Griffin, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Shane Frederick, Maya Bar-Hillel, Efrat Neter, Steven J. Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman, Kim D. Reynolds, Norbert Schwarz, Leigh Ann Vaughn, Gretchen B. Chapman, Eric J. Johnson, Nicholas Epley, Boaz Keysar, Dale J. Barr, Daniel T. Gilbert, Timothy D. Wilson, David B. Centerbar, Nancy Brekke, Paul Rozin, Carol Nemeroff, Paul Slovic, Roger Buehler, Michael Ross, J. Frank Yates, Ju-Whei Lee, Winston R. Sieck, Incheol Choi, Paul C. Price, Elizabeth C. Pinel, Timothy D. Wilson, Stephen J. Blumberg, Thalia P. Wheatley, Neil D. Weinstein, William M. Klein, David Dunning, Judith A. Meyerowitz, Amy D. Holzberg, David A. Armor, Shelley E. Taylor, Dale T. Miller, Brian R. Taylor, Steven A. Sloman, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, Donald G. MacGregor, Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, Derek J. Koehler, Yuval Rottenstreich, Lyle A. Brenner, Yuval Rottenstreich, Richard E. Nisbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson, Ziva Kunda, Norbert Schwarz, Shane Frederick, Gerd Gigerenzer, Jean Czerlinski, Laura Martignon, Philip E. Tetlock, Robert Vallone, Kenneth Savitsky, Victoria Husted, Medvec Scott, F. Madey, E. Pronin, C. Puccio, L. Ross, Max Henrion, Baruch Fischhoff, Werner De Bondt, Richard Thaler, Lyle Brenner, Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, Paul E. Meehl
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  • Date Published: July 2002
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521796798

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About the Authors
  • Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how people answer such questions. How do people cope with the complexities of the world economy, the uncertain behavior of friends and adversaries, or their own changing tastes and personalities? When are people's judgments prone to bias, and what is responsible for their biases? This book compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer these important questions.

    • Is the successor to Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, 1982) and Choices, Values, and Frames (Cambridge University Press, 2000)
    • Compiles the best research on the heuristics and biases approach to judgment under uncertainty
    • Features Daniel Kahneman as an editor
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    Reviews & endorsements

    Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment; offers a massive, state-of-the-art treatment of the literature, supplementing a similar book published two decades ago...This is an impressive book, full of implications for law and policy." Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago Law School

    "...the book should serve well as a reference work for researchers in cognitive science and as a textbook for advanced courses in that difficult topic. Philosophers interested in cognitive science will also wish to consult it." Metapsychology Online Review

    "Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment is a scholarly treat, one that is sure to shape the perspectives of another generation of researchers, teachers, and graduate students. The book will serve as a welcome refresher course for some readers and a strong introduction to an important research perspective for others." Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

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    Product details

    • Date Published: July 2002
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521796798
    • length: 882 pages
    • dimensions: 234 x 156 x 44 mm
    • weight: 1.21kg
    • contains: 53 b/w illus. 80 tables
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Introduction: heuristics and biases then and now
    Part I. Theoretical and Empirical Extensions:
    1. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    2. Representativeness revisited: attribute substitution in intuitive judgment
    3. How alike is it versus how likely it is: a disjunction fallacy in probability judgments
    4. Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: the mediating effect of ease of imagery
    5. The availability heuristic revisited: ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources of information
    6. Incorporating the irrelevant: anchors in judgments of belief and value
    7. Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic: differential processing of self-generate and experimenter-provided anchors
    8. Self anchoring in conversation: why language users don't do what they 'should'
    9. Inferential correction
    10. Mental contamination and the debiasing problem
    11. Sympathetic magical thinking: the contagion and similarity 'heuristics'
    12. Compatibility effects in judgment and choice
    13. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
    14. Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions
    15. Probability judgment across cultures
    16. Durability bias in affective forecasting
    17. Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions
    18. Ambiguity and self-evaluation: the role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability
    19. When predictions fail: the dilemma of unrealistic optimism
    20. Norm theory: comparing reality to its alternatives
    21. Counterfactual thought, regret, and superstition: how to avoid kicking yourself
    Part II. New Theoretical Directions:
    22. Two systems of reasoning
    23. The affect heuristic
    24. Individual differences in reasoning: implications for the rationality debate?
    25. Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability
    26. Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory
    27. Remarks on support theory: recent advances and future directions
    28. The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning
    29. Feelings as information: moods influence judgments and processing strategies
    30. Automated choice heuristics
    31. How good are fast and frugal heuristics?
    32. Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors: exploring the empirical implications of deviant functionalist metaphors
    Part III. Real World Applications:
    33. The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences
    34. Like goes with like: the role of representativeness in erroneous and pseudoscientific beliefs
    35. When less is more: counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists
    36. Understanding misunderstanding: social psychological perspectives
    37. Assessing uncertainty in physical constants
    38. Do analysts overreact?
    39. The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory
    40. Clinical versus actuarial judgment
    41. Heuristics and biases in application
    42. Theory driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in world politics.

  • Instructors have used or reviewed this title for the following courses

    • Asset Pricing Theory
    • Bias and Prejudice in Social Psychology
    • Economic Behavior and Psychology
    • Intro to American Government
    • Judgement and decision making
    • Personality and Prediction
    • Psychology of Consumer Choice and Investment Decision-Making
    • Psychotherapy
    • Reasoning and Critical Thinking
    • Seminar on Intuition
    • Social Psychology
  • Editors

    Thomas Gilovich, Cornell University, New York

    Dale Griffin, Stanford University, California

    Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, New Jersey

    Contributors

    Thomas D. Gilovich, Dale W. Griffin, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Shane Frederick, Maya Bar-Hillel, Efrat Neter, Steven J. Sherman, Robert B. Cialdini, Donna F. Schwartzman, Kim D. Reynolds, Norbert Schwarz, Leigh Ann Vaughn, Gretchen B. Chapman, Eric J. Johnson, Nicholas Epley, Boaz Keysar, Dale J. Barr, Daniel T. Gilbert, Timothy D. Wilson, David B. Centerbar, Nancy Brekke, Paul Rozin, Carol Nemeroff, Paul Slovic, Roger Buehler, Michael Ross, J. Frank Yates, Ju-Whei Lee, Winston R. Sieck, Incheol Choi, Paul C. Price, Elizabeth C. Pinel, Timothy D. Wilson, Stephen J. Blumberg, Thalia P. Wheatley, Neil D. Weinstein, William M. Klein, David Dunning, Judith A. Meyerowitz, Amy D. Holzberg, David A. Armor, Shelley E. Taylor, Dale T. Miller, Brian R. Taylor, Steven A. Sloman, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, Donald G. MacGregor, Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, Derek J. Koehler, Yuval Rottenstreich, Lyle A. Brenner, Yuval Rottenstreich, Richard E. Nisbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson, Ziva Kunda, Norbert Schwarz, Shane Frederick, Gerd Gigerenzer, Jean Czerlinski, Laura Martignon, Philip E. Tetlock, Robert Vallone, Kenneth Savitsky, Victoria Husted, Medvec Scott, F. Madey, E. Pronin, C. Puccio, L. Ross, Max Henrion, Baruch Fischhoff, Werner De Bondt, Richard Thaler, Lyle Brenner, Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, Paul E. Meehl

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