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Judgment under Uncertainty

Judgment under Uncertainty
Heuristics and Biases

$89.99 (X)

Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Maya Bar-Hillel, Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida, Rick Crandall, Harvey Reed, Lee Ross, Craig A. Anderson, Michael Ross, Fiore Sicoly, Shelley E. Taylor, Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile, Lee Ross, Ellen J. Langer, Loren J. Chapman, Jean Chapman, David M. Eddy, Hillel J. Einhorn, Stuart Oskamp, Marc Alpert, Howard Raiffa, Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff, Lawrence D. Phillips, John Cohen, E. I. Chesnick, D. Haran, Ward Edwards, Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III, Cameron R. Peterson, Yaacov Trope, Robyn M. Dawes, Max Singer, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson, Geoffrey T. Fong, Paul Slovic
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  • Date Published: April 1982
  • availability: In stock
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521284141

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  • The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

    Reviews & endorsements

    "The papers chosen for this volume are an excellent collection, generally well-written and fascinating." Journal of Economic Literature

    "The examples are lively, the style is engaging, and it is as entertaining as it is enlightening." Times Literary Supplement

    "...an important and well-written book." Journal of the American Statistical Association

    "...a good collection of papers on an important topic." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

    "Clearly, this is an important book. Anyone who undertakes judgment and decision research should own it." Contemporary Psychology

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    Product details

    • Date Published: April 1982
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521284141
    • length: 544 pages
    • dimensions: 228 x 149 x 28 mm
    • weight: 0.76kg
    • availability: In stock
  • Table of Contents

    Preface
    Part I. Introduction:
    1. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
    Part II. Representativeness:
    2. Belief in the law of small numbers Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
    3. Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
    4. On the psychology of presiction Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
    5. Studies of representativeness Maya Bar-Hillel
    6. Judgments of and by representativeness Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
    Part III. Causality and Attribution:
    7. Popular induction: information is not necessarily informative Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida, Rick Crandall and Harvey Reed
    8. Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
    9. Shortcomings in the attribution process: on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments Lee Ross and Craig A. Anderson
    10. Evidential impact of base rates Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
    Part IV. Availability:
    11. Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
    12. Egocentric biases in availability and attribution Michael Ross and Fiore Sicoly
    13. The availability bias in social perception and interaction Shelley E. Taylor
    14. The simulation heuristic Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
    Part V. Covariation and Control:
    15. Informal covariation asssessment: data-based versus theory-based judgments Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile and Lee Ross
    16. The illusion of control Ellen J. Langer
    17. Test results are what you think they are Loren J. Chapman and Jean Chapman
    18. Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities David M. Eddy
    19. Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making Hillel J. Einhorn
    Part VI. Overconfidence:
    20. Overconfidence in case-study judgments Stuart Oskamp
    21. A progress report on the training of probability assessors Marc Alpert and Howard Raiffa
    22. Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff and Lawrence D. Phillips
    23. For those condemned to study the past: heuristics and biases in hindsight Baruch Fischhoff
    Part VII. Multistage Evaluation:
    24. Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice John Cohen, E. I. Chesnick and D. Haran
    25. Conservatism in human information processing Ward Edwards
    26. The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III and Cameron R. Peterson
    27. Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory Yaacov Trope
    Part VIII. Corrective Procedures:
    28. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making Robyn M. Dawes
    29. The vitality of mythical numbers Max Singer
    30. Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
    31. Debiasing Baruch Fischhoff
    32. Improving inductive inference Richard E. Nesbett, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson and Geoffrey T. Fong
    Part IX. Risk Perception:
    33. Facts versus fears: understanding perceived risk Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff and Sarah Lichtenstein
    Part X. Postscript:
    34. On the study of statistical intuitions Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
    35. Variants of uncertainty Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
    References
    Index.

  • Instructors have used or reviewed this title for the following courses

    • Decision analysis under uncertainty
    • International Relations Research Methods
    • Principles of Information Security
  • Editors

    Daniel Kahneman

    Paul Slovic

    Amos Tversky

    Contributors

    Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, Maya Bar-Hillel, Richard E. Nisbett, Eugene Borgida, Rick Crandall, Harvey Reed, Lee Ross, Craig A. Anderson, Michael Ross, Fiore Sicoly, Shelley E. Taylor, Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile, Lee Ross, Ellen J. Langer, Loren J. Chapman, Jean Chapman, David M. Eddy, Hillel J. Einhorn, Stuart Oskamp, Marc Alpert, Howard Raiffa, Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff, Lawrence D. Phillips, John Cohen, E. I. Chesnick, D. Haran, Ward Edwards, Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III, Cameron R. Peterson, Yaacov Trope, Robyn M. Dawes, Max Singer, David H. Krantz, Christopher Jepson, Geoffrey T. Fong, Paul Slovic

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