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Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Foundations and Methods

$124.00 (P)

  • Authors:
  • Tim Bedford, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands
  • Roger Cooke, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands
  • Date Published: April 2001
  • availability: Available
  • format: Hardback
  • isbn: 9780521773201

$ 124.00 (P)
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About the Authors
  • Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations in situations where classical statistical analysis is difficult or impossible. This book discusses the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgment and uncertainty propagation.

    • Discussion of the nature of uncertainty and the limits to quantification
    • Model quantification using expert judgement, and uncertainty analysis to explore sensitivity of model to uncertainties in parameters
    • Many exercises with solutions available to teachers
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    Reviews & endorsements

    "This is a valuable reference book for engineers, researchers and Ph.D. students...The book is fresh, neat, and comprehensive. I highly recommend it." Risk Decision and Policy

    "...an excellent basis for an undergraduate course, well equipped with a wealth of real-life examples and exercises. Practitioners and decision makers will also benefit...The text can be recommended as an important contribution to bridge the gap between those working in mathematical reliability, who are looking for real-life examples, and those in eonomic risk analysis, who are looking for a readable treatment of the foundational concepts." JASA

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    Product details

    • Date Published: April 2001
    • format: Hardback
    • isbn: 9780521773201
    • length: 414 pages
    • dimensions: 244 x 170 x 24 mm
    • weight: 0.95kg
    • contains: 105 b/w illus. 47 tables 76 exercises
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Part I. Introduction:
    1. Probabilistic risk analysis
    Part II. Theoretical Issues and Background:
    2. What is uncertainty?
    3. Probabilistic methods
    4. Statistical inference
    5. Weibull analysis
    Part II. System Analysis and Quantification:
    6. Fault and event trees
    7. Fault trees - analysis
    8. Dependent failures
    9. Reliability data bases
    10. Expert opinion
    11. Human reliability
    12. Software reliability
    Part IV. Uncertainty Modeling and Risk Measurement:
    13. Decision theory
    14. Influence diagrams and belief nets
    15. Project risk management
    16. Probabilistic inversion
    17. Uncertainty analysis
    18. Risk measurement and regulation
    Bibliography
    Index.

  • Instructors have used or reviewed this title for the following courses

    • Applied Risk Analysis
    • Probabilistic Risk Assessment
  • Authors

    Tim Bedford, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands

    Roger Cooke, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands

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