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Globalization and the International Financial System
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  • 15 b/w illus. 5 tables
  • Page extent: 384 pages
  • Size: 228 x 152 mm
  • Weight: 0.51 kg
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Paperback

 (ISBN-13: 9780521605076 | ISBN-10: 0521605075)

  • Also available in Hardback
  • Published December 2004

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$31.99 (G)




GLOBALIZATION AND THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM




Economic globalization has given rise to frequent and severe financial crises in emerging market economies. Many other countries have been unsuccessful in their efforts to generate economic growth and reduce poverty. This book provides perspectives on various aspects of the international financial system that contribute to financial crises and growth failures, and it discusses the remedies that economists have suggested for addressing the underlying problems. It also sheds light on a central feature of the international financial system that remains mysterious to many economists and most noneconomists: the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the factors that influence its effectiveness. Drawing on the views and proposals of leading scholars, Dr. Isard offers policy perspectives on what countries can do to reduce their vulnerabilities to financial crises and growth failures, as well as a number of general directions for systemic reform. The breadth of the agenda provides grounds for optimism that the international financial system can be strengthened considerably without revolutionary change.

Peter Isard is a Senior Advisor at the International Monetary Fund, where he has spent nearly twenty years in the Research Department and now teaches in, and helps manage, the IMF Institute. From 1972 through 1985, Dr. Isard held research and managerial positions in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. He has published numerous articles on the behavior of exchange rates, strategies for monetary policy, and directions for reforming the international financial system. His book Exchange Rate Economics (Cambridge University Press, 1995) is widely acclaimed.







to my father, Walter Isard,
who inspired me to study economics
and strongly encouraged me to write this book







Globalization and
the International
Financial Systme

WHAT’S WRONG AND WHAT CAN BE DONE




Peter Isard
International Monetary Fund







PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK
40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA
477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia
Ruiz de Alarcón 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain
Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa

http://www.cambridge.org

© Peter Isard 2005

This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2005

Printed in the United States of America

Typefaces Sabon 10/13.5 pt. and Melior     System LATEX 2e   [TB]

A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Isard, Peter.
Globalization and the international financial system : what’s wrong and what
can be done / Peter Isard.
p.   cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-521-84389-8 – ISBN 0-521-60507-5 (pbk.)
1. Financial crises – Developing countries. 2. Developing countries –
Economic conditions. 3. International Monetary Fund. 4. International finance.
I. Title.
HB3722.I83   2004
332′.042 – dc22       2004049269

ISBN 0 521 84389 8 hardback
ISBN 0 521 60507 5 paperback







Contents




List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes page ix
List of Abbreviations xi
Acknowledgments and Disclaimer xiii
PART ONE. BACKGROUND
1 Introduction 3
  1.1   Globalization 3
  1.2   Overview of the Book 6
2 The Evolution of the International Monetary System 13
  2.1   The Rise and Fall of International Monetary Regimes, 1870–1945 14
  2.1.1  The international gold standard, 15 • 2.1.2  Wartime convertibility restrictions, 18 • 2.1.3  Free floating, 19 • 2.1.4  A gold-exchange standard, 22 • 2.1.5  An uncoordinated hybrid system, 24 • 2.1.6  Managed floating, 26 • 2.1.7  Arrangements during World War Ⅱ, 27
  2.2   The Bretton Woods System: 1946–1971 27
  2.2.1  Creation of the IMF and World Bank, 27 • 2.2.2  Adjustment and collapse: The power of internationally mobile capital, 29
  2.3   The Prevailing International Monetary System 35
  2.3.1  Amendment of the agreement governing exchange rate arrangements, 35 • 2.3.2  European monetary integration, 37 • 2.3.3  Salient characteristics of the exchange rate system, 42 • 2.3.4  Agenda setting and international policy coordination, 52
  2.4   Liberalized Finance and the Sea Change in International Capital Flows 54
  2.5   Concluding Perspectives 65
3 The International Monetary Fund 69
  3.1   Purposes and Activities 69
  3.2   Organizational and Decision-Making Structures 70
  3.3   Surveillance 73
  3.3.1  Country surveillance: Core activities and policy advice, 74 • 3.3.2  Country surveillance: New directions since the mid-1990s, 78 • 3.3.3  Global and regional surveillance, 86
  3.4   Lending and Economic Stabilization Programs 87
  3.4.1  Lending policies and facilities, 88 • 3.4.2  Program design and conditionality, 94
  3.5   Technical Assistance and Research 103
  3.6   Criticisms of the IMF 105
  3.7   Concluding Perspectives 112
PART TWO. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND OBSTACLES TO GROWTH
4 Factors Contributing to International Financial Crises 119
  4.1   Historical and Conceptual Perspectives 119
  4.2   Selected Crises of the 1990s: Contributing Factors and Initial Stages 131
  4.2.1  Mexico, 1994–1995, 132 • 4.2.2  Thailand, 1997, 136 • 4.2.3  Indonesia, 1997–1998, 139 • 4.2.4  Korea, 1997–1998, 142 • 4.2.5  Malaysia, 1997–1998, 144 • 4.2.6  Russia, 1998, 146 • 4.2.7  Brazil, 1998–1999, 148 • 4.2.8  Sources of vulnerability and common characteristics, 150
  4.3   IMF Influence During Precrisis Periods 152
  4.4   Concluding Perspectives 159
5 The Effects of Crises and Controversies Over How to Respond 162
  5.1   The Sudden Stop Phenomenon 162
  5.2   Contagion 172
  5.3   Controversies Over the Macroeconomic and Structural Policy Responses 175
  5.3.1  Exchange rate arrangements, 176 • 5.3.2  Interest rate policies, 178 • 5.3.3  Fiscal adjustment, 183 • 5.3.4  Structural policies and the scope of conditionality, 185
  5.4   The Issue of Moral Hazard: Controversies Over Crisis Lending 194
  5.5   What Worked Best? Impressions from Korea’s Recovery 197
  5.6   Concluding Perspectives 201
6 Perspectives on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction 207
  6.1   Proximate Determinants of Growth: Physical Capital, Human Capital, and Technology 210
  6.2   Deeper Determinants of Growth 212
  6.2.1  Institutions and incentives, 214 • 6.2.2  Openness to international trade, 220 • 6.2.3  Openness to international capital flows, 223
  6.3   Poverty 226
  6.4   Aid and Debt Relief 230
  6.5   Concluding Perspectives 236
PART THREE. THE AGENDA FOR REFORM
7 What Can Individual Countries Do? 243
  7.1   Devise a Sensible Strategy for Liberalizing Domestic Financial Markets and International Capital Flows 245
  7.2   Strengthen Institutions, Information, and the Financial and Corporate Sectors 257
  7.3   Adopt Sustainable Exchange Rate Arrangements 260
  7.4   Maintain Debt Discipline, Sound Macroeconomic Policies, and Market Confidence 268
  7.5   Open the Economy to Trade and FDI in a Manner That Results in Growth-Enhancing Activities 273
  7.6   Concluding Perspectives 277
8 How Can the International Financial System Be Reformed? 283
  8.1   Strengthen the Quality and Impact of IMF Surveillance 283
  8.2   Induce Changes in the Composition of International Capital Flows 291
  8.3   Introduce Contingent Debt Contracts or Other Mechanisms for Hedging Against Macroeconomic Risks 298
  8.4   Address Informational Imperfections and Distorted Incentives on the Supply Side of International Capital Flows 301
  8.5   Revamp Debt Resolution Procedures 304
  8.6   Strengthen the Frameworks for Development Aid and Official Nonconcessional Lending 314
  8.7   Concluding Perspectives 318
References 327
Author Index 359
Subject Index 365






List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes




FIGURES

2.1  Inflation convergence and exchange rates in the ERM page 39
2.2  Month-to-month variability of key-currency exchange rates 45
2.3  Medium-term variability of key-currency exchange rates 47
2.4  Exchange rate changes versus inflation differentials over different time intervals 49
2.5  Foreign capital stocks 56
2.6  Capital flows to developing countries 58
2.7  Capital flows to developing countries relative to developing-country GDP 59
2.8  Financial liberalization by component and income group 62
2.9  Composition of net private capital flows into developing countries 64
3.1  IMF credit outstanding 90
4.1  Sudden stops in net private capital inflows and real GDP growth 124
4.2  Exchange rates before and after currency crises 125
4.3  Interest rate spreads on emerging market bonds 126
6.1  Distributions of developing countries and their population by per capita output growth 208
7.1  Derivative contracts: Notional amounts outstanding 253
 
TABLES
2.1  Perspectives on exchange rate variability 46
4.1  Output growth, inflation, and the current account before and after selected crises 133
4.2  Sources of vulnerability 151
5.1  Capital flow reversals and output losses 164
5.2  Public and external debts before selected crises 167
 
BOXES
3.1  Criticisms of the IMF 106
4.1  Selected econometric studies of currency crises and banking crises 121
4.2  Currency-crisis models with balance-sheet mismatches 130
5.1  Selected econometric studies of contagion 174
6.1  Cross-country growth regressions 215
6.2  Selected studies of the impact of international capital flows on economic growth 225
7.1  Country-specific problems 245
8.1  Systemic problems 284
8.2  Principles of the proposed SDRM 310






List of Abbreviations




CCL Contingent Credit Line
CFF Compensatory Finance Facility
EC European Community
ECB European Central Bank
EFF Extended Fund Facility
EMS European Monetary System
EMU European Economic and Monetary Union
ERM Exchange Rate Mechanism
EU European Union
FDI foreign direct investment
FSA financial sector assessment
FSAP Financial Sector Assessment Program
FSF Financial Stability Forum
G-5 Group of Five
G-7 Group of Seven
G-8 Group of Eight
G-10 Group of Ten
G-24 Group of Twenty-Four
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GDDS General Data Dissemination System
GDP gross domestic product
HIPC heavily indebted poor country
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMFC International Monetary and Financial Committee
ITO International Trade Organization
LIBOR London interbank offer rate
LOLR lender of last resort
LTCM Long-Term Capital Management
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
NDA net domestic assets
NGO nongovernmental organization
NIPA national income and product accounts
ODA official development assistance
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
PPP purchasing power parity
PRSP Poverty-Reduction Strategy Paper
ROSC Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes
SAF Structural Adjustment Facility
SBA stand-by arrangement
SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standard
SDR special drawing right
SDRM Sovereign Debt-Restructuring Mechanism
SRF Supplemental Reserve Facility
UDROP Universal Debt Rollover Option with a Penalty
WEO World Economic Outlook
WTO World Trade Organization






Acknowledgments and Disclaimer




This book was written during a leave of absence from the International Monetary Fund. I am grateful both to the IMF and to the Economics Department of the University of Maryland, which provided comfortable office facilities and an enjoyable and fruitful working environment.

    Much of the book’s material draws on contributions from other economists, who are extensively referenced throughout. Valuable comments and suggestions were provided by a number of colleagues at the IMF, including Andy Berg, Graham Hacche, Olivier Jeanne, Thomas Krueger, Jaewoo Lee, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. I also gratefully acknowledge the questioning and feedback received from faculty and graduate students at the University of Maryland, the constructive suggestions provided by two anonymous referees, and the excellent assistance received from Ioannis Tokatlidis in putting together the figures and tables and from Nahid Mejid in preparing the manuscript. Special thanks go to my wife, Maggie, and children, Ben and Harsha, for bearing with me during prolonged periods of writer’s distraction.

   The analysis and opinions in this book are those of the author and, unless otherwise indicated, do not necessarily reflect the views of the IMF or others on its staff. The manuscript was submitted in October 2003; data have been updated through the end of 2003 or early 2004, but the book includes only a few references to material that has become available since October 2003. I have made considerable efforts to avoid factual errors and to provide balanced perspectives on the issues addressed, but the nature of the undertaking suggests that some sins of commission or omission will no doubt be discovered, for which I accept full responsibility.


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