GLOBALIZATION AND THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Economic globalization has given rise to frequent and severe financial crises in emerging market economies. Many other countries have been unsuccessful in their efforts to generate economic growth and reduce poverty. This book provides perspectives on various aspects of the international financial system that contribute to financial crises and growth failures, and it discusses the remedies that economists have suggested for addressing the underlying problems. It also sheds light on a central feature of the international financial system that remains mysterious to many economists and most noneconomists: the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the factors that influence its effectiveness. Drawing on the views and proposals of leading scholars, Dr. Isard offers policy perspectives on what countries can do to reduce their vulnerabilities to financial crises and growth failures, as well as a number of general directions for systemic reform. The breadth of the agenda provides grounds for optimism that the international financial system can be strengthened considerably without revolutionary change.
Peter Isard is a Senior Advisor at the International Monetary Fund, where he has spent nearly twenty years in the Research Department and now teaches in, and helps manage, the IMF Institute. From 1972 through 1985, Dr. Isard held research and managerial positions in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. He has published numerous articles on the behavior of exchange rates, strategies for monetary policy, and directions for reforming the international financial system. His book Exchange Rate Economics (Cambridge University Press, 1995) is widely acclaimed.
to my father, Walter Isard,
who inspired me to study economics
and strongly encouraged me to write this book
Globalization and
the International
Financial Systme
WHAT’S WRONG AND WHAT CAN BE DONE
Peter Isard
International Monetary Fund
PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
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CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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© Peter Isard 2005
This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2005
Printed in the United States of America
Typefaces Sabon 10/13.5 pt. and Melior System LATEX 2e [TB]
A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Isard, Peter.
Globalization and the international financial system : what’s wrong and what
can be done / Peter Isard.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-521-84389-8 – ISBN 0-521-60507-5 (pbk.)
1. Financial crises – Developing countries. 2. Developing countries –
Economic conditions. 3. International Monetary Fund. 4. International finance.
I. Title.
HB3722.I83 2004
332′.042 – dc22 2004049269
ISBN 0 521 84389 8 hardback
ISBN 0 521 60507 5 paperback
Contents
| List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes | page ix | ||
| List of Abbreviations | xi | ||
| Acknowledgments and Disclaimer | xiii | ||
| PART ONE. BACKGROUND | |||
| 1 | Introduction | 3 | |
| 1.1 | Globalization | 3 | |
| 1.2 | Overview of the Book | 6 | |
| 2 | The Evolution of the International Monetary System | 13 | |
| 2.1 | The Rise and Fall of International Monetary Regimes, 1870–1945 | 14 | |
| 2.1.1 The international gold standard, 15 • 2.1.2 Wartime convertibility restrictions, 18 • 2.1.3 Free floating, 19 • 2.1.4 A gold-exchange standard, 22 • 2.1.5 An uncoordinated hybrid system, 24 • 2.1.6 Managed floating, 26 • 2.1.7 Arrangements during World War Ⅱ, 27 | |||
| 2.2 | The Bretton Woods System: 1946–1971 | 27 | |
| 2.2.1 Creation of the IMF and World Bank, 27 • 2.2.2 Adjustment and collapse: The power of internationally mobile capital, 29 | |||
| 2.3 | The Prevailing International Monetary System | 35 | |
| 2.3.1 Amendment of the agreement governing exchange rate arrangements, 35 • 2.3.2 European monetary integration, 37 • 2.3.3 Salient characteristics of the exchange rate system, 42 • 2.3.4 Agenda setting and international policy coordination, 52 | |||
| 2.4 | Liberalized Finance and the Sea Change in International Capital Flows | 54 | |
| 2.5 | Concluding Perspectives | 65 | |
| 3 | The International Monetary Fund | 69 | |
| 3.1 | Purposes and Activities | 69 | |
| 3.2 | Organizational and Decision-Making Structures | 70 | |
| 3.3 | Surveillance | 73 | |
| 3.3.1 Country surveillance: Core activities and policy advice, 74 • 3.3.2 Country surveillance: New directions since the mid-1990s, 78 • 3.3.3 Global and regional surveillance, 86 | |||
| 3.4 | Lending and Economic Stabilization Programs | 87 | |
| 3.4.1 Lending policies and facilities, 88 • 3.4.2 Program design and conditionality, 94 | |||
| 3.5 | Technical Assistance and Research | 103 | |
| 3.6 | Criticisms of the IMF | 105 | |
| 3.7 | Concluding Perspectives | 112 | |
| PART TWO. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND OBSTACLES TO GROWTH | |||
| 4 | Factors Contributing to International Financial Crises | 119 | |
| 4.1 | Historical and Conceptual Perspectives | 119 | |
| 4.2 | Selected Crises of the 1990s: Contributing Factors and Initial Stages | 131 | |
| 4.2.1 Mexico, 1994–1995, 132 • 4.2.2 Thailand, 1997, 136 • 4.2.3 Indonesia, 1997–1998, 139 • 4.2.4 Korea, 1997–1998, 142 • 4.2.5 Malaysia, 1997–1998, 144 • 4.2.6 Russia, 1998, 146 • 4.2.7 Brazil, 1998–1999, 148 • 4.2.8 Sources of vulnerability and common characteristics, 150 | |||
| 4.3 | IMF Influence During Precrisis Periods | 152 | |
| 4.4 | Concluding Perspectives | 159 | |
| 5 | The Effects of Crises and Controversies Over How to Respond | 162 | |
| 5.1 | The Sudden Stop Phenomenon | 162 | |
| 5.2 | Contagion | 172 | |
| 5.3 | Controversies Over the Macroeconomic and Structural Policy Responses | 175 | |
| 5.3.1 Exchange rate arrangements, 176 • 5.3.2 Interest rate policies, 178 • 5.3.3 Fiscal adjustment, 183 • 5.3.4 Structural policies and the scope of conditionality, 185 | |||
| 5.4 | The Issue of Moral Hazard: Controversies Over Crisis Lending | 194 | |
| 5.5 | What Worked Best? Impressions from Korea’s Recovery | 197 | |
| 5.6 | Concluding Perspectives | 201 | |
| 6 | Perspectives on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction | 207 | |
| 6.1 | Proximate Determinants of Growth: Physical Capital, Human Capital, and Technology | 210 | |
| 6.2 | Deeper Determinants of Growth | 212 | |
| 6.2.1 Institutions and incentives, 214 • 6.2.2 Openness to international trade, 220 • 6.2.3 Openness to international capital flows, 223 | |||
| 6.3 | Poverty | 226 | |
| 6.4 | Aid and Debt Relief | 230 | |
| 6.5 | Concluding Perspectives | 236 | |
| PART THREE. THE AGENDA FOR REFORM | |||
| 7 | What Can Individual Countries Do? | 243 | |
| 7.1 | Devise a Sensible Strategy for Liberalizing Domestic Financial Markets and International Capital Flows | 245 | |
| 7.2 | Strengthen Institutions, Information, and the Financial and Corporate Sectors | 257 | |
| 7.3 | Adopt Sustainable Exchange Rate Arrangements | 260 | |
| 7.4 | Maintain Debt Discipline, Sound Macroeconomic Policies, and Market Confidence | 268 | |
| 7.5 | Open the Economy to Trade and FDI in a Manner That Results in Growth-Enhancing Activities | 273 | |
| 7.6 | Concluding Perspectives | 277 | |
| 8 | How Can the International Financial System Be Reformed? | 283 | |
| 8.1 | Strengthen the Quality and Impact of IMF Surveillance | 283 | |
| 8.2 | Induce Changes in the Composition of International Capital Flows | 291 | |
| 8.3 | Introduce Contingent Debt Contracts or Other Mechanisms for Hedging Against Macroeconomic Risks | 298 | |
| 8.4 | Address Informational Imperfections and Distorted Incentives on the Supply Side of International Capital Flows | 301 | |
| 8.5 | Revamp Debt Resolution Procedures | 304 | |
| 8.6 | Strengthen the Frameworks for Development Aid and Official Nonconcessional Lending | 314 | |
| 8.7 | Concluding Perspectives | 318 | |
| References | 327 | ||
| Author Index | 359 | ||
| Subject Index | 365 | ||
List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
FIGURES
| 2.1 Inflation convergence and exchange rates in the ERM | page 39 | ||
| 2.2 Month-to-month variability of key-currency exchange rates | 45 | ||
| 2.3 Medium-term variability of key-currency exchange rates | 47 | ||
| 2.4 Exchange rate changes versus inflation differentials over different time intervals | 49 | ||
| 2.5 Foreign capital stocks | 56 | ||
| 2.6 Capital flows to developing countries | 58 | ||
| 2.7 Capital flows to developing countries relative to developing-country GDP | 59 | ||
| 2.8 Financial liberalization by component and income group | 62 | ||
| 2.9 Composition of net private capital flows into developing countries | 64 | ||
| 3.1 IMF credit outstanding | 90 | ||
| 4.1 Sudden stops in net private capital inflows and real GDP growth | 124 | ||
| 4.2 Exchange rates before and after currency crises | 125 | ||
| 4.3 Interest rate spreads on emerging market bonds | 126 | ||
| 6.1 Distributions of developing countries and their population by per capita output growth | 208 | ||
| 7.1 Derivative contracts: Notional amounts outstanding | 253 | ||
| TABLES | |||
| 2.1 Perspectives on exchange rate variability | 46 | ||
| 4.1 Output growth, inflation, and the current account before and after selected crises | 133 | ||
| 4.2 Sources of vulnerability | 151 | ||
| 5.1 Capital flow reversals and output losses | 164 | ||
| 5.2 Public and external debts before selected crises | 167 | ||
| BOXES | |||
| 3.1 Criticisms of the IMF | 106 | ||
| 4.1 Selected econometric studies of currency crises and banking crises | 121 | ||
| 4.2 Currency-crisis models with balance-sheet mismatches | 130 | ||
| 5.1 Selected econometric studies of contagion | 174 | ||
| 6.1 Cross-country growth regressions | 215 | ||
| 6.2 Selected studies of the impact of international capital flows on economic growth | 225 | ||
| 7.1 Country-specific problems | 245 | ||
| 8.1 Systemic problems | 284 | ||
| 8.2 Principles of the proposed SDRM | 310 | ||
List of Abbreviations
| CCL | Contingent Credit Line |
| CFF | Compensatory Finance Facility |
| EC | European Community |
| ECB | European Central Bank |
| EFF | Extended Fund Facility |
| EMS | European Monetary System |
| EMU | European Economic and Monetary Union |
| ERM | Exchange Rate Mechanism |
| EU | European Union |
| FDI | foreign direct investment |
| FSA | financial sector assessment |
| FSAP | Financial Sector Assessment Program |
| FSF | Financial Stability Forum |
| G-5 | Group of Five |
| G-7 | Group of Seven |
| G-8 | Group of Eight |
| G-10 | Group of Ten |
| G-24 | Group of Twenty-Four |
| GATT | General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade |
| GDDS | General Data Dissemination System |
| GDP | gross domestic product |
| HIPC | heavily indebted poor country |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IMFC | International Monetary and Financial Committee |
| ITO | International Trade Organization |
| LIBOR | London interbank offer rate |
| LOLR | lender of last resort |
| LTCM | Long-Term Capital Management |
| NAFTA | North American Free Trade Agreement |
| NDA | net domestic assets |
| NGO | nongovernmental organization |
| NIPA | national income and product accounts |
| ODA | official development assistance |
| OECD | Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development |
| OPEC | Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries |
| PPP | purchasing power parity |
| PRSP | Poverty-Reduction Strategy Paper |
| ROSC | Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes |
| SAF | Structural Adjustment Facility |
| SBA | stand-by arrangement |
| SDDS | Special Data Dissemination Standard |
| SDR | special drawing right |
| SDRM | Sovereign Debt-Restructuring Mechanism |
| SRF | Supplemental Reserve Facility |
| UDROP | Universal Debt Rollover Option with a Penalty |
| WEO | World Economic Outlook |
| WTO | World Trade Organization |
Acknowledgments and Disclaimer
This book was written during a leave of absence from the International Monetary Fund. I am grateful both to the IMF and to the Economics Department of the University of Maryland, which provided comfortable office facilities and an enjoyable and fruitful working environment.
Much of the book’s material draws on contributions from other economists, who are extensively referenced throughout. Valuable comments and suggestions were provided by a number of colleagues at the IMF, including Andy Berg, Graham Hacche, Olivier Jeanne, Thomas Krueger, Jaewoo Lee, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. I also gratefully acknowledge the questioning and feedback received from faculty and graduate students at the University of Maryland, the constructive suggestions provided by two anonymous referees, and the excellent assistance received from Ioannis Tokatlidis in putting together the figures and tables and from Nahid Mejid in preparing the manuscript. Special thanks go to my wife, Maggie, and children, Ben and Harsha, for bearing with me during prolonged periods of writer’s distraction.
The analysis and opinions in this book are those of the author and, unless otherwise indicated, do not necessarily reflect the views of the IMF or others on its staff. The manuscript was submitted in October 2003; data have been updated through the end of 2003 or early 2004, but the book includes only a few references to material that has become available since October 2003. I have made considerable efforts to avoid factual errors and to provide balanced perspectives on the issues addressed, but the nature of the undertaking suggests that some sins of commission or omission will no doubt be discovered, for which I accept full responsibility.

