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Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization
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Index



Note: Italicized page numbers refer to tables and figures


Abdellah, Mohamed, 136

Abdi, Abbas, 169

Abdul Rahman (Tunku), 48, 63, 64, 84, 95, 96, 98, 100, 119, 120

Abul-Einen, Mohammed, 134

Abu Sayyaf group, 199

ACC (Association of Combatant Clerics) (Iran), 106–10, 160, 163, 165, 166, 168, 175.

   See also Islamic left

administocrats (in Malaysia), 57, 58, 60, 61, 73, 80, 216

AF (Barisan Alternatif; Alternative Front) (Malaysia), 154–5

Afghanistan, 177, 178

Africa

   democratization in, 1, 122, 151

   regime persistence in, 3, 22

   ruling parties in, 11–12.

   See also specific countries

agency. See leaders; opposition groups

Aguinaldo, Emilio, 73

Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 173, 176, 179

Ahmed, Muhammad Sayid, 148

Alaqami, Nabih, al-, 146

Alexandria (Egypt), 148

Algeria, 217

Alliance (UMNO and MCA partnership, Malaysia), 46, 63, 93–6

Alternative Front (Malaysia), 154–5

‘Amer, Abd al-Hakim, 88, 89

Amrollahi, Ali, 161

Anwar Ibrahim, 152–6, 210

   Aquino, Benigno, Jr. (“Ninoy”), 115–18, 186, 187–8, 206

   assassination of, 189, 191–2, 194, 196, 200

Aquino, Corazon, 10, 117, 184–200, 206, 210

Arab Socialist Union (Egypt). See ASU

Arabi, Al- (newspaper), 149

Argentina, 20

aristocracy (in the Philippines), 72, 74, 79, 80, 111, 112, 119

Armenia, 30

Arroyo, Gloria Macapagal, 1, 2, 197–200

Asia

   democratization in, 1, 22, 122

   regime persistence in, 3, 22.

   See also specific countries

Asia Foundation, 191

Asian Development Bank, 137

Assembly of Experts (Iran), 68, 71, 101, 106–8, 167–8, 171

Association of Combatant Clerics (Iran). See ACC

ASU (Arab Socialist Union) (Egypt), 52, 85–93, 87, 97, 119

authoritarianism.

   See also coalitions; democratization; elections; elites; hybrid regimes; leaders; “limited elections”; opposition groups; personalistic rule; political repression; ruling parties; specific authoritarians

   defined, 26–7

   democracy as increasingly replacing, 1, 3–5, 14–16, 19, 21–2, 25, 34, 41, 122, 211–12

   in developing states, 26

   “durable,” 18–23, 34–5, 42–3, 48, 82, 202–3, 217, 219, 221 (see also Egypt; Malaysia)

   “durable,” defined, 42

   elections under, 3–4, 6, 8–10, 13–14, 16, 25–7, 26, 32, 42, 82, 84, 91, 145, 164, 190–3, 207–9, 213

   number of countries under, in 1991, 21

   ruling parties as infrastructure of “durable,” 3, 6, 11–15, 17, 30–45, 81, 84, 156, 157, 202, 205, 210–11, 214–22

   as transitional phase toward democracy, 2, 8, 26

   types of, 28–30, 31

   viable challenges to, in Iran, 179–81

   weakening of, caused by ruling party defectors, 2, 13, 15, 32, 35, 36, 40–3, 156, 182–93, 200, 202–4, 206–8, 210, 214

Awad, Hossam, 147

“axis of evil,” 177, 178, 217

Azerbaijan, 30

Azmi, Zakariya, 147

Badawi, Abdullah, 155

Badrawi, Hossam, 147

Bahonar, Mohammad Reza, 170

Bahrain, 29

Baktiari, Bahman, 70n, 104, 106n

Bangladesh, 22

Bani-Sadr, Abolhasan, 46, 69–72, 101, 158

Barisan Alternatif (AF) (Malaysia), 154–5

Barisan Nasional (Malaysia). See NF

baseej (in Iran), 66, 165, 172, 210

Batangas (Philippines), 184–6, 192

Baath Party (Iraq), 219–20

Bayat, Asadollah, 109

Bazargan, Mehdi, 65, 66–72, 101, 104

Beattie, Kirk J., 52n, 53

behaviorism, 27

Beheshti, Mohammad, 46, 67–70, 101

Belarus, 24, 30

Bellin, Eva, 213

Bolivia, 20

Bonner, Raymond, 193

Borneo, 95

Botswana, 20

Bratton, Michael, 28

Brazil, 20, 27n, 213

Britain

   Egypt as former colony of, 48–9

   Malaysia as former colony of, 5, 47, 56–61, 63, 93, 94, 140

   Suez Canal and, 84

Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 68

Bulgaria, 20

Bunce, Valerie, 41–2

Burma. See Myanmar

Bush, George H. W., 188

Bush, George W., 177, 178

Cairo (Egypt)

   military coup in, 49–50

   unrest in, 88–9, 148–9

Cambodia, 22

Camp David Accords, 93

Carter, Jimmy, 68

Case, William F., 129

Catholic Church (in the Philippines), 74, 198, 199

Cebu province (Philippines), 184, 192

Central Intelligence Agency (U.S.), 190

Central Luzon (Philippines), 79

Chile, 16, 20, 213

China, 22, 23, 56

Chinese minorities (in Malaysia), 47, 56–62, 80, 94–6, 142, 153–4, 216.

   See also DAP; Gerakan; MCA

civil society, 217, 218

class

   in Egypt, 49, 54n, 85

   in Iran, 103, 162, 166, 176–7

   in Malaysia, 57, 58, 60, 61, 73, 80, 216

   in the Philippines, 72–4, 78–80, 111, 112, 119

   and regime change, 18.

   See also economic issues

clientelism (in the Philippines), 74–6, 78, 79, 111–12, 212, 216.

   See also elites: constituents of, as power base; patronage

   after Marcos, 197–8

   explanations of, 214–16

   Marcos’s, 113–17, 119, 182, 183–5, 190, 192–3, 214

“closed regimes,” 31, 34

Coalitional Provisional Authority (Iraq), 219–20

coalitions.

   See also factions

   as breaking into factions in absence of ruling parties, 13, 14, 32–3, 36, 37, 41–3, 64, 69, 71–2, 131, 157, 203, 204, 206–8, 210–11, 213, 218, 220

   among ruling party elites under authoritarianism, 10, 12–14, 32–3, 39, 42, 44–5, 83–4, 90, 96, 98, 100, 103, 120, 122–3, 130–1, 145–6, 153, 155, 156, 180, 203–4, 206, 208, 213, 217, 220

Colombia, 20

COMELEC (Commission on Elections) (Philippines), 190, 194–5

Commission on Elections (Philippines). See COMELEC

Communist Party

   in Cuba, 33n

   in Iran, 46, 67, 68, 108

   in Malaysia, 46, 58, 59–61

   in the Philippines, 111, 113, 117, 119, 189, 191, 207

   in Soviet Union, 42, 86

Communities Liaison Council (Malaysia), 61–2

conflict.

   See also coalitions; confrontation; elites; factions

   among elites during regime formation, 44, 45, 64, 100, 122, 202

   escalation of, among elites in ruling parties’ absence, 13, 14, 32, 36, 41, 64, 69, 71–2, 157, 203, 204, 206–8, 210–11, 213, 218, 220

   political parties as regulating factional, 2–3, 12–13, 32–3, 35, 36, 37–45, 46, 47–8, 82–5, 96, 98, 100, 119, 120, 122–3, 130–1, 153, 157, 163, 184–5, 203, 206–7, 212, 214–17, 219, 222

confrontation.

   See also coups; regime change; revolution

   elite defectors and mass protest in effective, 202–3, 206–7, 210, 214

   1979 Iranian revolution as, 4, 33, 64, 80, 159, 175

   Iran’s fear of a second major, 14, 158, 171, 178–9, 183, 196, 200, 206, 207, 210

   opposition’s willingness to engage in, for regime change, 180–2, 205–6

   in the Philippines, 186–200, 206, 207

   regime formation through, 33, 36, 47–56, 80, 85, 210

   theories about, 23–4, 210–11, 217–18

Congress Party (India), 33n, 83

Corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. See pasadaran

Costa Rica, 20

Council of Guardians (Iran), 65n, 71, 101, 102, 107–9, 160, 162–4, 167, 169–74, 176n18

coups, 200

   regime formation through, 33, 36, 47–56, 80, 85, 210

“Covenant for Freedom” (Philippines), 187

Cox, Gary W., 208–9

“critical junctures,” 24n, 35n

Crouch, Harold A., 96, 98n, 140, 143

Cuba, 33n

Cuenco, Antonio, 187

Czechoslovakia, 20

Dahl, Robert Alan, 19, 20, 21

DAP (Democratic Action Party) (Malaysia), 94, 98, 100, 124, 128–30, 141–3, 153, 154

defectors (from ruling parties), 12, 83, 120, 131, 139–41, 143

   critical mass of elite, as necessary for electoral success of opposition groups, 141, 154–6, 182–93, 200, 202–3, 206–8, 210, 214

   involuntary, 155

   opposition groups joined by, 2, 13, 36, 40–3, 120, 143, 157, 182, 186–96, 200, 202–4, 206–8, 210, 214

   ruling parties’ role in discouraging, 122–3, 130–1, 143–5, 153, 157, 180

   as weakening authoritarian regimes, 2, 13, 15, 32, 35, 36, 40–3, 156, 182–93, 200, 202–4, 206–8, 210, 214

De Guzman, Raul P., 192

Dekmejian, R. Hrair, 86n6, 89n, 90

democracy.

   See also democratization; elections; liberalization; opposition groups; political parties

   authoritarianism increasingly replaced by, 1, 3–5, 14–16, 19, 21–2, 25, 34, 41, 122, 211–12

   “durable,” 18–23, 219, 221–2

   prior, and later democratization, 21

   ruling parties as the primary obstacle to, in durable autocracies, 122–3, 130–1, 151–2, 217, 218–21

Democratic Action Party (Malaysia). See DAP

Democratic Alliance (Philippines), 111

democratization.

   See also defectors; “opportunities for democratization”; opposition groups; regime change; “third wave” of democratization

   absence of ruling parties as facilitating, 13–14, 32, 40, 41, 101, 180, 182–222

   forecasts of, 19–21, 20

   in Iraq, 219–20

   moderation’s role in, 182–3, 187–90, 193, 200, 205–7

   in the Philippines, 1, 2, 182–201, 206, 220–1

   rate of, in late twentieth century, 1, 16, 19

   theories about, 18–27, 212–14, 217–22

   ways of increasing, 218

Democrat Party (DP; Partido Democrata) (Philippines), 75, 76

developing states

   factions in, 201

   “limited elections” in, 25, 26, 33

   political parties in, 11–12

   theories about democratization in, 18

   types of regimes in, 26, 28, 29.

   See also names of specific states

Dewey, George, 72–3

Diamond, Larry Jay, 25

dictators. See authoritarianism; names of specific dictators

DiPalma, Giuseppe, 8

dissidents. See opposition groups

“dominant party democracies,” 33n

Dominican Republic, 20

Donaldson, Sam, 193

DP (Democrat Party; Partido Democrata) (Philippines), 75, 76

DPI (Word Bank Database of Political Indicators), 29

Eastern Bloc, 20, 22, 122.

   See also specific countries

East Germany, 20

economic issues

   in Egypt, 90–1, 132, 212

   in Iran, 103, 105, 107–8, 159, 176–7, 212

   in Malaysia, 61, 93–6, 128–9, 137–9, 143

   in the Philippines, 74, 189, 191

   and theories of regime change or stability, 17, 18, 22, 27–8, 31, 32n, 212–14

Ecuador, 20

Egypt.

   See also liberalization; NDP; specific rulers of

   author’s fieldwork in, 14

   constitutions of, 48, 51, 56, 84, 149–52

   elections in, 1–2, 4–6, 7, 13, 49, 53, 56, 84, 91–3, 120, 122, 123, 125–8, 130–2, 134–7, 145–52, 156, 188, 209, 213

   factional conflicts among elites in, 123, 131–8, 145–52, 163, 210–11

   as former British colony, 48–9

   monarchy in, 29, 47, 48–50, 65, 216

   National Charter of, 85

   opposition groups in, 1–5, 14, 48–56, 65, 92, 122, 123, 125, 131, 135–7, 145, 147–51, 156, 206

   political repression in, 49–55, 81, 84, 89, 90, 92, 93, 124, 125, 127, 146, 147, 149–51, 218

   regime formation in, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 47–56, 80, 81, 85, 100, 210

   ruling party in, 13, 66, 82–93, 103, 119, 213, 214

   ruling party in, as leading to regime stability, 13, 32–3, 36, 44–5, 210–11, 216, 218, 220, 221

   stability of authoritarian regime in, 1–6, 8, 12, 13, 15, 36, 47, 156, 157, 179, 182, 201, 204–5, 210–11, 216

   United States and, 90–1, 211–12

   wars of, with Israel, 48, 88–9

Egyptian Movement for Change (Kifaya), 149, 150

Egypt Party, 91–3

Ehsani, Kaveh, 179

El Baradei, Mohammad, 178

elections (multiparty).

   See also electoral fraud; “limited elections”; plebiscitarian politics; political parties: elections within

   in authoritarian regimes, 3–4, 6, 8–10, 13–14, 16, 25–7, 26, 32, 42, 82, 84, 91, 145, 164, 190–3, 207–9, 213

   critical mass of ruling party defectors needed for regime change through, 141, 154–6, 182–93, 200, 202–3, 206–8, 210, 214

   discord among elite factions as capsizing, 203, 208

   in Egypt, 1–2, 4–6, 7, 13, 49, 53, 56, 84, 91–3, 120, 122, 123, 125–8, 130–2, 134–7, 145–52, 156, 188, 209, 213

   as insufficient to bring change in context of weak ruling institutions, 180–1, 203, 207–9, 218

   in Iran, 4–6, 7, 14, 67, 69, 103, 104, 106, 108, 109–10, 120, 158, 159, 162, 164–71, 173–6, 179, 181, 188, 200, 213–14

   lack of, in closed authoritarian regimes, 31, 34

   in Malaysia, 5, 6, 7, 8, 13, 47, 63, 84, 93–6, 98, 100, 120, 122, 123, 128–31, 140–5, 152–6, 206, 218

elections (multiparty) (cont.)

   in Mexico, 1, 19, 42, 221–2

   as only viable path to change, 187, 189–90

   in the Philippines, 5, 6, 7, 8, 14, 16, 74–9, 111–12, 115–20, 182–3, 185, 187–200, 206, 218

   supervised, 190, 191–2, 194–5, 218

   as symptoms of regime change or durability, 9–10, 32, 207–9

   in Taiwan, 221–2

   as a tool for rallying popular support, 163, 168, 193

electoral fraud.

   See also political repression

   in authoritarian regimes, 32

   in Egypt, 86, 91, 125–8, 134–7, 146, 147–8

   in Iran, 109–10, 165, 169, 170, 176n18

   in Malaysia, 98, 100, 143, 154–5, 209

   in the Philippines, 74–6, 112, 116–18, 186, 191, 194–5, 199, 206, 209

elites.

   See also clientelism; coalitions; factions; leaders; patronage; political repression; ruling parties; soft-liners; specific defectors

   coalitions among ruling party, under authoritarianism, 10, 12–14, 32–3, 39, 42, 44–5, 83–4, 90, 96, 98, 100, 103, 120, 122–3, 130–1, 145–6, 153, 155, 156, 180, 203–4, 206, 208, 213, 217, 220

   conflict among, during regime formation, 45, 64, 100, 122, 202

   constituents of, as power base, 12, 17, 38, 39, 45, 47, 72, 73–6, 78, 79, 111, 123, 163, 184, 213, 215–16

   defectors from, as weakening authoritarian regimes, 2, 13, 15, 32, 35, 36, 40–3, 156, 182–93, 200, 202–4, 206–8, 210, 214

   defectors from ruling party of, 83, 120, 131, 139–41, 143, 200, 202–4, 206–8, 210, 214

   defined, 12

   escalation of conflict among, in ruling parties’ absence, 13, 14, 32, 36, 41, 64, 69, 71–2, 157, 203, 204, 206–8, 210–11, 213, 218, 220

   as national-level agenda setters, 12, 38, 39, 42, 44, 82, 203, 215

   political parties as regulating conflict among, 2–3, 12–13, 32–3, 35, 36, 37–45, 46, 47–8, 82–5, 96, 98, 100, 119, 120, 122–3, 130–1, 153, 157, 163, 184–5, 203, 206–7, 212, 214–17, 219, 222

El Salvador, 20

emergency (state of). See martial law

Enrile, Juan Ponce, 114–16, 183–4, 186, 189–91, 195–6, 210

Espina, Rene, 187

Estrada, Joseph, 198–9

Ethiopia, 29

European democratization, 1, 205, 219.

   See also Eastern Bloc; specific countries in

European Union, 178

Executives of Reconstruction (Iran), 161–3, 166, 167, 169, 188

Ezz, Ahmed, 134

factions.

   See also coalitions; opposition groups; political parties; ruling parties

   coalitions as breaking into, in absence of ruling parties, 13, 14, 32–3, 36, 37, 41–3, 64, 69, 71–2, 131, 157, 203, 204, 206–8, 210–11, 213, 218, 220

   discord among elite, as capsizing elections, 203, 208

   in Egypt, 123, 131–8, 145–52, 163, 210–11

   in Iran, 4, 5, 36, 64–72, 80, 81, 100–11, 119–20, 157–81, 183, 188, 200–1, 210, 220

   in Malaysia, 123, 131, 137–45, 210–11

   in the Philippines, 5, 36, 64, 72, 76–81, 100, 101, 111–12, 119, 120, 157, 183, 188, 200–1, 210, 220

faqih (Iran’s chief jurist), 68, 69n10, 71, 101, 107

Farouk (king of Egypt), 48–50

Federal Party (FP) (Philippines), 46, 75

Federated Malay States, 57

Federation of Malaya, 59–61, 94

FP (Federal Party) (Philippines), 46, 75

Franco, Francisco, 174

Free Officers (Egypt), 48, 50–2, 85, 89n

Frente Popular (Philippines). See Popular Front

Funston, John, 97–8

Future Foundation (Egypt), 134

Future Generation Foundation (Egypt), 134

Future Party (Egypt), 133–5, 137

Gambia, 20

Gandhi, Indira, 83

Garcia, Carlos, 185

Geddes, Barbara, 28–30, 205

Gelman, Aleksandr, 6, 8

Georgia (former Soviet state), 30

Gerakan (Chinese-backed Malaysian party), 94

Gerak party (National Movement) (Malaysia), 153

Ghad Party, Al, 149, 150

Ghafar Baba, 138–9, 152

Ghana, 151

Goma‘a, No‘man, 150

Goodno, James B., 191

gradualism (in Iran), 158, 171–2, 174–5, 180–1.

   See also moderation

Greece, 20

Guatemala, 20, 24

Gulf War, 131

Haggard, Stephan, 28

Halafawi, Gihan al-, 148

Harik, Iliya, 86n6

Harun Idris, 99–100, 138, 155

Hashemi, Mehdi, 106

Henry, Clement, 86n6, 221

hierocracy (defined), 64.

   See also Iran; factional conflicts among elites in

Hilal, Ali Eddin, 147

hizbollahis (in Iran), 66, 70, 165, 167, 172, 210

Honduras, 20

Hooglund, Eric, 70

Hoover, Herbert, 77

Hungary, 20

Huntington, Samuel P.

   on liberalized authoritarianism, 16, 25, 32

   on political parties, 11, 45

   on regime stability, 30, 219, 220–1

   on regime types, 18, 19, 20

Hussein, Saddam, 219–20

Hussein Onn, 99–100, 119

hybrid regimes, 17, 25–7, 30, 31.

   See also authoritarianism; democracy

IFM (Iran Freedom Movement), 46, 64, 65, 67, 102n15, 104, 106, 108, 207

IIPF (Islamic Iran Participation Front), 166, 175

Ilocos Norte (Philippines), 184, 185, 190, 193

IMF (International Monetary Fund), 115, 132, 154

IMP (Independence of Malaya Party), 56, 62–3

Independence of Malaya Party (IMP), 50, 62–3

India, 20, 22, 24, 33n, 56, 83

Indian minorities (in Malaysia), 47, 56, 57, 59, 61, 62, 80, 94–6, 142, 153–4, 216.

   See also Malayan Indian Congress

Indonesia, 22, 213

institutionalist theories (on regime change and stability), 17, 22–5, 27–34, 42, 202–22.

   See also institutions; ”new institutionalism ”

Institutional Revolutionary Party (Mexico), 42

institutions (political).

   See also political parties; ruling parties

   authoritarian, as more influential than limited elections, 30–3, 31

   benefits of, for leaders, 2–3, 12–13, 32–5, 37–40, 82, 93, 122–3, 131, 145, 153, 155, 156, 180, 203–5, 222

   constraints of, on leaders, 38, 82–3, 101, 204

   defined, 10

   leaders as less important than, in regime change or durability, 2, 10–11, 23, 120–2, 203–4

   regime formation legacies in, 15, 35, 36, 37–40, 46, 82–121, 202

   as separating unstable regimes from durable authoritarianism, 2, 11–15, 22, 30–2, 31, 35–7, 40–1, 156, 217–22.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 178

International Monetary Fund (IMF), 115, 132, 154

Iran.

   See also specific rulers, leaders, and parties in

   author’s fieldwork in, 14

   confrontation avoidance in, 14, 158, 171, 178–9, 183, 196, 200, 206, 207, 210

   constitution of, 68–9, 71–2, 101, 107, 108–9, 168

   dissolving of IRP in, 45, 69, 82–3, 86n6, 101, 105, 110, 114, 119, 159, 161–2, 183, 204, 214, 221

   elections in, 4–6, 7, 14, 67, 69, 103, 104, 106, 108, 109–10, 120, 158, 159, 162, 164–71, 173–6, 179, 181, 188, 200, 213–14

   factional conflicts among elites in, 4, 5, 14, 36, 64–72, 80, 81, 100–11, 119, 120, 157–81, 183, 188, 200–1, 210, 220

   gradualism advocated by pro-democracy groups in, 158, 171–2, 174–5, 180–1

   and Iran-Contra scandal, 106

   lack of ruling party in, 14, 36, 82, 83, 86n6, 131, 157, 210, 213–14, 216, 221

   monarchy in, 64–8

   nuclear programs in, 177–8

   political repression in, 66, 69–70, 105, 106, 108, 109, 164–9, 171–2, 175, 179, 210

   regime formation in, 4, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 64–72, 80, 100

   regime instability in, 3–6, 8, 9, 14, 36, 45, 210, 213–14, 220, 221

   1979 revolution in, 4, 64, 80, 159, 175

   war of, with Iraq, 69–70, 103, 107, 175

Iran-Contra scandal, 106

Iran Freedom Movement. See IFM

Iraq, 217.

   See also Gulf War

   in ”axis of evil, ” 177–8

   ruling party in, 219–20

   United States’ wars against, 131, 148–9, 178, 219–20

   war of, with Iran, 69–70, 103, 107, 175

IRC (Islamic Revolutionary Council), 46, 65–6, 68, 69, 103

IRP (Islamic Republican Party), 101–5

   dissolving of, 101, 105, 110, 114, 119, 159, 161–2, 183, 204, 210, 214, 221

   factions within, 103, 160

   in Iran’s regime formation, 46, 67–72, 216

Islamic Assembly (Iran), 68, 71, 101, 107–10

   factionalism in, 158–63, 167, 169

Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), 166, 175

Islamic left (in Iran), 103–11, 158–60, 163–71, 175, 181, 207.

   See also ACC

Islamic Party of Malaysia. See PAS

Islamic People’s Republic Party, 69

Islamic Republican Party. See IRP

Islamic Republic of Iran. See Iran

Islamic Revolutionary Council (Iran). See IRC

Islamic Revolutionary Guards, 165, 173, 176n18

Ismailia (Egypt), 49

Israel

   democratization forecasts about, 20

   as dominant party democracy, 209

   Egypt’s peace negotiations with, 90, 91, 93

   Iran and, 178

   Palestinian intifada and, 149

   wars of, with Egypt, 48, 88–9

Italy, 209

Jamaica, 20

Jame’eh (newspaper), 167

Japan

   clientelism in, 215–16

   democratization forecasts about, 20

   as dominant party democracy, 33n, 209, 215–16

   Malaysia and, 57, 58, 60

   Philippines and, 72, 76–8

Johor, 57, 59, 63, 140–4, 185

Johor Malay Unity Forum, 140–1, 143

Jomhuri-ye Islami (IRP newspaper), 105

Jordan, 29

Kamel, Ibrahim, 134

Karbaschi, Gholamhossein, 161, 166–8

Kargozaran-e Sazandegi (Iran). See Executives of Reconstruction

Karrubi, Mehdi, 71, 103, 106, 108, 109, 165, 168, 171, 175, 176

Kaufman, Robert R., 28

Kazakhstan, 30

KBL (New Society Movement; Kilusan Bagong Lipunan) (Philippines), 116–19, 183–7, 190, 192–5

Kedah, 57

Kelantan, 57, 100, 144

Kenya, 12, 33

Khamenei, Ali

   faction headed by, 102–5, 159–60, 164–8, 170–4, 176–7

   as Iranian ruler, 106–11, 158–61, 163, 178, 179, 181, 204

   in IRP, 67

   political parties dissolved by, 101, 105, 110, 114, 119, 210

   1990s election lost by, 4

Khatami, Mohammed Reza, 172, 174, 175

Khatami, Seyyed Mohammed, 163–75, 196, 210

Khomeini, Ruhollah (Ayatollah), 4, 46, 64, 65, 67–72, 101–10, 158, 161

   death of, 106, 157

Khong Kim Hoong, 142, 144

Khoo Boo Teik, 154

Kifaya (Egypt), 149, 150

Kilusan Bagong Lipunan (Philippines). See KBL

KMT (Taiwan), 221–2

Kohli, Atul, 24, 83

komitehs (in Iran), 66

Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), 63, 95

Kuwait, 29

LABAN party (Lakas ng Bayan; People Power) (Philippines), 5, 116–18, 190, 194–7, 206, 210, 211

Labor Party (Egypt), 125–7

Lakas ng Bayan party (Philippines). See LABAN party

Lakas-NUCD party (Philippines), 197–8

land reform

   in Egypt, 49, 50–1, 66, 84, 90

   in Iran, 66

Larijani, Javad, 170

Latif, Mahmoud Abdel, 55

Latin American democratization, 1, 21–2, 122, 205, 219.

   See also specific countries in

Laurel, Joey, 185, 186

Laurel, Jose, 114–16, 183–7, 185, 190, 192

Laurel, Jose, Jr., 184

Laurel, Salvador, 114–16, 118, 154, 183–92, 194, 196, 197, 206, 207

Leader (rahbar) (Iran), 65n, 71

leaders.

   See also personalistic rule; specific leaders

   challenges for, during regime formation, 44, 45, 64, 100, 122, 202

   as less important than institutions in regime change or durability, 2, 10–11, 23, 120–2, 203–4

   question of role of, in regime change or stability, 17, 21, 23, 25, 37, 203–5

   ruling party’s benefits for, 2–3, 12–13, 32–5, 37–40, 82, 93, 122–3, 131, 145, 153, 155, 156, 180, 203–5, 222

   succession of, 122–3, 145–56, 204–5

Lebanon, 20

Legg, Keith, 215

Lemarchand, Rene, 215

Liberal Democratic Party (Japan), 33n, 209, 215–16

liberalization (political), 2.

   See also democratization

   in Brazil, 27n

   defined, 6

   democratization not necessarily linked to, 6, 8–9, 16–17

   Mubarak’s promises of, 93, 124

   Nasser’s promises of, 54, 55, 89, 90, 92

   Sadat’s promises of, 92, 150

Liberal Party (Egypt), 125–7

Liberal Party (Philippines). See LP

Liberation Rally (Egypt), 46, 48, 51–2, 54–6, 83, 84, 216

Libya, 217

Lilla, Mark, 217

“limited elections,” 17, 29–33, 31.

   See also elections; electoral fraud

   as barometers of a regime’s control over political arena, 3, 6, 8–10

   rise of, in autocracies, 25–7, 26, 34, 42

Lim Kit Siangh, 129

Linz, Juan, 26–7

Lipset, Seymour Martin, 18, 19, 20, 21, 24, 28

literacy, 22

Lopez, Fernando, 184

LP (Liberal Party) (Philippines), 111–12, 114–17, 182, 197

   merges with NP to become opposition group, 186, 187

   during regime formation, 46, 79–80

LR. See Liberation Rally (Egypt)

Lugar, Richard, 194–5

Macapagal, Diosdado, 112, 115, 185, 187

MacArthur, Douglas, 189

Maceda, Ernesto, 187

Machiavelli, Niccolò, 2, 156, 203, 205

MacMichael, Harold, 58

Magsaysay, Ramon, 185, 189

Mahathir Mohamad, 96

   challengers to, 137–45, 152–6, 185, 206, 210

   elections under, 8, 100, 128–30, 137–45

   as ethnic Malay, 96, 99

   as Malaysian ruler, 5, 93, 99–100, 119, 128–30, 145, 152–6, 204, 206, 208

   regime stability under, 84, 100, 122, 145, 156, 213, 222

   successor of, 122, 153, 155, 204

Mahir, Ali, 51, 52

Majlis Gerakan Keadilan Nasional (Gerak) (Malaysia), 154

Malacca, 56, 58

Malaya, 93.

   See also Malaysia

Malaya Chinese Association. See MCA

Malayan Communist Party. See MCP

Malayan Indian Congress (MIC), 63, 96

Malayan Union, 58–60

Malay Nationalist Party, 60n

Malays

   as ethnic majority in Malaysia, 47, 56–9, 61, 80, 94–6, 142, 144, 155

   UMNO as protector of privileges of, 56, 59, 63–4, 94, 96, 119, 140, 142, 155, 216

Malaysia (formerly, Malaya).

   See also Malays; UMNO; specific rulers, leaders, and parties of

   administocrats, 57, 58, 60, 61, 73, 80, 216

   author’s fieldwork in, 14

   constitution in, 95

   democratization forecasts about, 20

   elections in, 5, 6, 7, 8, 13, 47, 63, 84, 93–6, 98, 100, 120, 122, 123, 128–31, 140–5, 152–6, 206, 218

   as former British colony, 5, 47, 56–61, 63, 93, 94, 140

   Japan’s World War II rule of, 57, 58, 60

   monarchy in, 56, 62

   non-Malay minorities in, 47, 56–62, 80, 94–6, 142, 153–4, 216

   opposition groups in, 3, 5, 58–64, 93–4, 96, 100, 122, 123, 128, 131, 137–45, 152–6, 185, 206, 210–11

   political repression in, 95, 99–100, 139, 153, 218

   regime formation in, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 47–8, 56–64, 80, 81, 100

   regime stability in, 5–6, 8, 12, 13, 19n, 22, 36, 122–4, 128–31, 137–45, 152–7, 179, 182, 198, 201, 204–6, 210–11, 213, 216

   ruling party in, as leading to regime stability, 13, 32–3, 36, 44–5, 122–4, 128–31, 137–45, 152–7, 204–5, 210, 218, 220, 221

   sultans in, 56–64, 80

Malaysian Islamic Youth Movement, 152

Mali, 151

Malta, 20

Manila (Philippines), 75, 186, 191–2, 194–5, 206

March, James G., 27n

Marcos, Ferdinand

   downfall of, 1, 2, 182, 196, 200, 206, 210, 211

   elections under, 8, 9, 112, 115–18, 182–3, 185, 187–96, 207

   martial law under, 6, 111, 113–15, 185, 187–9, 194

   as Philippine ruler, 5–6, 10, 77, 101, 185, 197, 198, 204, 210, 213–14

   power grab by, 112–19

   switching of political parties by, 112, 182

Marcos, Imelda, 113, 114, 118, 188, 192

martial law (states of emergency)

   in Egypt, 53, 124, 131, 149

   in Malaysia, 60, 93, 95, 98

   in the Philippines, 6, 79, 111, 113–15, 185, 187–9, 194, 200

Masry Al-Yom, Al- (newspaper), 149

mass protest. See confrontation; opposition groups

MB. See Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt)

MCA (Malaya Chinese Association), 61, 63, 93, 96

MCP (Malayan Communist Party), 46, 60, 61, 63

media

   in Egypt, 50, 55, 91, 124, 127, 149

   in Iran, 69, 105, 110, 161–2, 165, 167, 168–9, 171–2

   in Malaysia, 94, 98, 100, 142–3, 153, 154–5

   in the Philippines, 1, 113, 194, 195

Mexico

   democratization forecasts about, 20

   elections in, 1, 19, 42, 221–2

   ruling party in, 33, 42, 213, 221–2

MIC (Malayan Indian Congress), 63, 96

middle class (and regime change), 18

Middle East (regime persistence in), 3, 4, 22.

   See also specific countries in

military.

   See also military regimes

   in Egypt, 4, 48, 49–54, 80, 85, 95n10, 210

   as factor in regime change, 210, 219

   in Malaysia, 95n10, 210

   in the Philippines, 190, 195–7, 199, 210

military regimes, 21–2, 27n, 28–30, 31, 213

Mindanao (Philippines), 186

“mobilization from below. ” See confrontation; opposition groups; revolution

moderation (role of, in democratization), 182–3, 187–90, 193, 200, 205–7.

   See also gradualism

Mohajerani, Ata’ollah, 161, 167

Mohammed Reza Pahlavi (Shah of Iran), 64–8, 93, 159

Moin, Mostafa, 175

Mojahedin-e-Khalq (Iran), 46, 67, 70–1, 101, 207

monarchies

   durability of, 31

   in Egypt, 29, 47, 48–50, 65, 216

   in Iran, 64–8

   in Malaysia, 56, 62

   as regime type, 29, 30, 31

Mongolia, 20

Montazeri, Hossein-Ali, 106, 166

Moore, Barrington, Jr., 22, 28

Morocco, 29

Moro Islamic Liberation Front (Philippines), 199

Moslem, Mehdi, 165

Mubarak, Gamal, 133–5, 145–7, 149, 151, 152

Mubarak, Hosni

   demonstrations against, 149–50

   as Egyptian ruler, 93, 119, 124–8, 130, 132, 134, 145, 147, 156, 204, 206, 208, 211

   regime stability under, 1–5, 84, 122, 145, 156, 222

   successor of, 122, 151–2, 204

Muhammad Ali (king of Egypt), 48

Musa Hitam, 137–41, 143–4, 152, 185

Musavi, Mir-Hossein, 71, 103–5, 107

Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt), 46, 51, 52n, 53–5, 84

   in Egyptian elections, 92, 125–8, 135, 136, 148–50

Muslim Unity Movement (Malaysia), 142, 143, 145

Myanmar (Burma), 22, 34

Nacionalista Party (NP; Partido Nacionalista) (Philippines). See NP

Naguib, Mohammed

   arrest of, 55, 70, 71, 81, 89, 90

   as Nasser’s rival, 46, 47–8, 52–4, 81, 84

   as RCC member, 51–4

Namfrel (National Citizens Movement for Free Elections), 191–2, 194–5

Namibia, 20

Nasser, Gamal Abdel: death of, 89

   as Egyptian ruler, 56, 72, 84–93, 100, 119, 120, 203

   grab for power by, 46, 47–8, 50, 52–4, 66, 71, 210, 216

   as prime minister, 55

Nasserist Party (Egypt), 124, 127, 149

Natanz (Iran), 178

Nateq-Noori, Ali Akbar, 159–67, 169

National Citizens Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) (Philippines), 191–2, 194–5

National Democratic Party (Egypt). See NDP

National Front (Iran), 64

National Front (Malaysia). See NF

National Justice Movement (Malaysia), 154

National Operations Council (NOC) (Malaysia), 95–6, 120

National Progressive Unionist Party (NPUP) (Egypt), 125–7

National Union (Egypt), 56, 84, 85

NDP (National Democratic Party) (Egypt)

   conflicts within, 131–8, 145–7

   as Egypt’s ruling party, 13, 15, 33n, 42, 124–8, 130–1, 151–2, 156, 206, 211, 220, 221

   founding of, 92–3, 119

   Gamal Mubarak’s 2006 position in, 151

   predecessor of, 52

   regime stability and, 122–3, 145, 151

NDP-independents (Egypt), 131, 132, 135–7, 145

Negri Sembilan, 57

Nepal, 29

New Economic Policy (NEP) (Malaysia), 96

New Guard (Egypt). See Old and New Guard

“new institutionalism,” 11, 27

New Party (Taiwan), 222

New People’s Army (NPA) (Philippines), 183, 189

New Society Movement. See KBL

newspapers. See media

NF (National Front; Barisan Nasional) (Malaysia), 46, 96, 98, 100, 128–30, 141–4, 153–5, 206

Nicaragua, 16, 20

NOC (National Operations Council) (Malaysia), 95–6, 120

North Korea, 22, 177

Nour, Ayman, 149–50, 212

Nourbakhsh, Mohsen, 161

NP (Nacionalista Party; Partido Nacionalista) (Philippines), 112, 114–16, 197, 216

   dissolving of, 101, 114–15, 119, 182, 183, 204, 215, 221

   Marcos wins nomination of, 111, 182

   merges with LP to become opposition group, 186

   in the Philippines’ regime formation, 46, 74–80

   split in, 64, 101

NPA (New People’s Army) (Philippines), 183, 189

NPUP (National Progressive Unionist Party) (Egypt), 125–7

NU (National Union) (Egypt), 56, 84, 85

nuclear programs (in Iran), 177–8

Nuri, Abdollah, 109, 166, 167, 169

October Paper (April 1974–Egypt), 91

O’Donnell, Guillermo, 8, 23, 29

Old and New Guard (of NDP) (Egypt), 131–2, 134, 135, 138, 145–52, 163

“old institutionalism,” 27

Olsen, Jonah P., 27n

Oman, 29

Onn Jaafar (Dato), 46, 47–8, 81, 84, 99, 153

   as UMNO founder, 56, 59, 60–4

   “opportunities for democratization”

   defined, 24

   vs. durable authoritarianism, 202

   factors in, 13–14, 26, 35, 36, 40–3

   in Iran, 82, 179–82, 204, 205

   opposition groups and, 37, 203, 205–7, 220

   in the Philippines, 82, 204, 205

opposition groups.

   See also political repression; revolution; soft-liners

   banning of, in Egypt, 46, 51, 53, 55, 84, 92

   banning of, in Iran, 46, 69, 101, 108, 207

   critical mass of elite defectors as necessary for electoral success of, 141, 154–6, 182–93, 200, 202–3, 206–8, 210, 214

   in Egypt, 1–5, 14, 48–56, 65, 92, 122, 123, 125, 131, 135–7, 145, 147–51, 156, 206

   electoral participation by, 8–9, 16, 26, 32, 34, 82, 84, 92, 98, 116–20, 123–30, 135–45, 147–8, 163–71, 191–6, 206

   elite defectors as joining, 2, 13, 36, 40–3, 120, 143, 157, 182, 186–96, 200, 202–4, 206–8, 210, 214

   exclusion of, from election participation, 101, 108, 109–11, 114, 122, 174, 208

   exclusion of, from ruling parties, 2, 3, 13, 37, 42, 47, 92, 94, 100, 111, 119, 123, 148, 150, 184, 208, 217

   in Iran, 3–5, 14, 36, 64–72, 80–1, 100–11, 119–20, 157–81, 183, 188, 200–1, 210, 220

   in Malaysia, 3, 5, 58–64, 93–4, 96, 100, 122, 123, 128, 137–45, 152–6, 185, 206, 210

   as marginal to national agenda setting, 12

   opportunities for democratization and, 37, 203, 205–7, 220

   personalistic rule and, 28

   in the Philippines, 1, 3, 15, 75–6, 182–201, 206

   as transforming authoritarian regimes into democratic ones, 1, 3–5, 14, 16, 34, 41, 122, 211–12

   weakness of, as product of durable authoritarianism, 123–45

   willingness of, to engage in confrontation for regime change, 180–2, 205–6

Osmeña, Sergio, 46, 64, 75–9, 101, 111, 184–5, 185

Overholt, William, 184, 189

Pahang, 57

Pakistan, 20, 22

Palestinian intifada, 148

Panama, 20

Pangkor Treaty (1874), 56

Paris (France), 65, 68, 69

Paris Club, 131

Partido Democrata (DP) (Philippines), 75, 76

Partido Nacionalista. See Nacionalista Party (Philippines)

Partido Progresista (Philippines), 75

Parti Rakyat Malaysia (People’s Party of Malaysia; PRM), 154

Party of the Democratic Revolution (Mexico), 222

PAS (Islamic Party of Malaysia), 93–4, 96, 100, 124, 128, 130, 141–2, 144, 145, 152–4

pasadaran (Iran), 66

patronage (in Malaysia’s ruling party), 138–41, 154–5, 212, 214.

   See also clientelism (in the Philippines); elites: constituents of, as power base

PDP-Laban Party (Philippines), 197

peasants. See class: in the Philippines

Pempel, T. J., 209

Penang, 56, 58

Penn World Tables 6.1, 30

People Power (Philippines), 5.

   See also LABAN party

People Power 2 (Philippines), 199

People’s Concept party (Malaysia), 142, 143

People’s First Party (Taiwan), 222

People’s Party of Malaysia, 154

Perak, 57

Perlis, 57

personalistic rule, 29.

   See also leaders

   as authoritarian regime type, 28, 30, 31, 204–5

   continuation of, in the Philippines after Marcos, 197–200

   durability of, 28, 30, 31

   political affiliation vs., 182, 183–5

Peru, 9, 20

Philippine Institute for Popular Democracy, 198

Philippines

   author’s fieldwork in, 14

   class in, 72–4, 78–80, 111, 112, 119

   constitution of, 113, 193, 198, 199

   democracy in, 1, 2, 22, 182–201, 206, 220–1

   democratization forecasts about, 20

   elections in, 5, 6, 7, 8, 14, 16, 74–9, 111–12, 115–20, 182–3, 185, 187–200, 206, 218

   factional conflict among elites in, 5, 36, 64, 72, 76–81, 100, 101, 111–12, 119–20, 157, 183, 188, 200–1, 210, 220

   Japan and, 72, 76–8

   lack of ruling party in, 5–6, 14, 36, 45, 76, 82, 83, 86n6, 101, 113–15, 119, 131, 157, 182, 204, 210, 213–15, 220–1

   opposition groups in, 1, 3, 15, 75–6, 182–201, 206

   political repression in, 111, 113–15, 187, 200

   regime formation in, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 64, 72–80, 100

   regime instability in, 1–3, 5–6, 8, 14, 36, 45, 186–96, 206, 216, 220, 221

   regional backgrounds of presidents of, 184, 185

   U.S. and postcolonial, 115, 183, 188, 190, 191, 193–6, 211

   U.S. as former colonial power in, 5, 72–5, 111, 216.

   See also specific rulers of

Pierson, Paul, 23n

Pimentel, Aquilino, 186, 188

plebiscitarian politics (in “third wave”), 6, 25, 126, 156, 164, 188.

   See also political parties: competition between, as democratic ruse

plurality voting, 209

Poland, 16, 20, 217–18

political parties. See also coalitions; elections; electoral fraud; factions; leaders; opposition groups; plebiscitarian politics; political repression; ruling parties; specific countries and parties

   competition between, as democratic ruse, 25, 34, 42

   defined, 10–11

   dissolving of, 34, 37, 40, 46, 48, 51–6

   dissolving of, in Iran, 45, 69, 82–3, 86n6, 101, 105, 110, 114, 119, 157–159, 161–2, 183, 204, 210, 214, 221

   dissolving of, in the Philippines, 45, 82–3, 86n6, 101, 113–15, 119, 182, 183, 204, 215, 221

   elections within, 86, 89, 97, 98–9, 137–47, 152–3

   elite conflict regulated by, 2–3, 12–13, 32–3, 35, 37–45, 46, 47–8, 82–5, 96, 98, 100, 119, 120, 122–3, 130–1, 153, 157, 163, 184–5, 203, 206–7, 212, 214–17, 219, 222

   establishment of, in regime formation, 15, 33–4, 44–81

   institutionalism and, 28, 33

   lifting of restrictions on, 218

   single, as authoritarian regime type, 28, 30, 31, 33n, 51, 76, 78, 85–91

   types of, 33n

political repression.

   See also confrontation; electoral fraud; opposition groups

   in Egypt, 49–55, 81, 84, 89, 90, 92, 93, 124, 125, 127, 146, 147, 149–51, 218

   in Iran, 66, 69–70, 105, 106, 108, 109, 164–9, 171–2, 175, 179, 210

   in Malaysia, 95, 99–100, 139, 153, 218

   in the Philippines, 111, 113–15, 187, 200

   political infrastructure of, 209–10.

Popovich, Srdja, 18n

Popular Front (Frente Popular) (Philippines), 46, 78–9

Portugal, 20

postcolonialism. See developing states; names of specific colonial powers and former colonies

power holders (defined), 38.

   See also elites; leaders

PP (Partido Progresista; Progressive Party), 75

PRI (Mexico), 221–2

The Prince (Machiavelli), 203, 205

PRM (People’s Party of Malaysia), 154

Progressive Party (Partido Progresista) (Philippines), 75

Przeworski, Adam, 8

Qalibaf, Mohammad Baqir, 176

Qatar, 29

Quezon, Manuel, 46, 64, 72, 75–80, 101, 111–13, 184–5, 185, 198

Quirino, Elpidio, 185

Rafsanjani, Akbar Hashemi

   faction headed by, 102–8, 110–11, 154, 158–68, 175–6, 207

   in IRP, 67

Rafsanjani, Faezeh Hashemi, 162

Rais Yatim, 139

Rajai, Ali, 69

Rajavi, Massoud, 70

RAM (Reform the Armed Forces Movement) (Philippines), 190, 195–7

Ramos, Fidel, 190, 195–7, 210

Razaleigh Hamzah, 138–45, 152, 154, 155, 210

Razak Hussein, Abdul, 95, 96, 98–9, 101, 120

RCC (Revolutionary Command Council) (Egypt)

   in Egypt’s regime formation, 46, 50–6, 66

   during Nasser’s rule, 84, 85, 88, 89

Reagan, Ronald, 188, 191, 195–6, 211

reformasi coalition (Malaysia), 153–6, 206

Reform the Armed Forces Movement (RAM) (Philippines), 190, 195–7

regime(s). See also authoritarianism; democracy; military regimes; monarchies; regime change; regime formation; regime instability; regime stability

   “closed,” 31, 34

   hybrid, 17, 25–7, 30, 31

   institutions as separating unstable from durable, 2, 11–15, 22, 30–2, 31, 35–7, 40–1, 156, 217–22

   military, 21–2, 27n, 28–30, 31, 213

   single-party, 28, 30, 31, 33n, 51, 76, 78, 85–91

   types of, 18–20, 26, 28–30, 31, 204–5.

regime change. See also confrontation; coups; elections; revolution; ”third wave” of democratization

   absence of ruling parties as facilitating, 13–15, 32, 40, 41, 101, 180–201, 203, 204, 206–8, 210–11, 213, 214, 218, 220

   in Eastern Bloc, 20, 22, 122

   factors leading to, 200, 202–22

   in Iran, 4, 64, 80, 159, 175

   in the Philippines, 1–3, 5–6, 14, 36, 182, 186–200, 206, 207, 210, 211, 220–1

   theories about, 17, 18–28, 32n, 205–22

   United States’ influence on, 203, 211–12

   via elections, 16, 43, 163, 207–9.

regime formation, 15

   description of, 33–7, 36

   in Egypt, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 47–56, 80, 81, 100, 210

   institutional legacies of, 15, 35, 36, 37–40, 46, 82–121, 202

   in Iran, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 64–72, 80, 100, 103, 216

   leaders’ need to eliminate opposition during, 44, 45, 64, 100, 122, 202

   in Malaysia, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 47–8, 56–64, 80, 81, 100

   in the Philippines, 33, 36, 44–5, 46, 64, 72–80, 100

   ruling parties’ origins in, 44–81

   through coups, 33, 36, 47–56, 80, 85, 210

regime instability

   in Iran, 3–6, 8, 9, 14, 36, 45, 210, 213–14, 220, 221

   in the Philippines, 1–3, 5–6, 8, 14, 36, 45, 186–96, 206, 216, 220, 221

regime renewal. See succession (of leaders)

regime stability

   in Egypt, 1–6, 8, 12, 13, 15, 36, 47, 122–8, 130–7, 145–52, 156, 157, 179, 182, 201, 204–5, 210–11, 216

   in Malaysia, 5–6, 8, 12, 13, 19n, 22, 36, 122–4, 128–31, 137–45, 152–7, 179, 182, 201, 204–6, 210–11, 213, 216

   ruling parties as providing infrastructure for, 3, 6, 11–15, 17, 30–45, 81, 84, 122–57, 180, 202–22

republicanism. See democracy; elections (multiparty)

Revolutionary Guards (Iran), 173

resistance. See confrontation; revolution

revolution See also confrontation; coups

   1979 Iranian, 4, 64, 80, 159, 175

   Skocpol on, 210.

Revolutionary Command Council (Egypt). See RCC

Reza Shah Pahlavi (Shah of Iran), 64

Rif’at, Kamal al-Din, 89n

Rocamora, Joel, 197

Romania, 20

Romulo, Carlos P., 118

Roosevelt, Franklin D., 77

Rowhani, Hassan, 170

Roxas, Gerardo, 187

Roxas, Manuel, 46, 64, 77–9, 101, 185, 187

ruling parties, 36. See also defectors; elites; factions; opposition groups; specific ruling parties

   absence of, as facilitating regime change, 13–15, 32, 40, 41, 101, 180–201, 203, 204, 206–8, 210–11, 213, 218, 220

   as benefiting both rulers and their elite followers, 2–3, 12–13, 32–5, 37–40, 82, 93, 122–3, 130–1, 145, 153, 155, 156, 180, 203–5, 222

   as constraining leaders, 38, 82–3, 101, 204

   as not conveying regime immortality, 41–2

   defined, 33

   discouraging defectors through, 122–3, 130–1, 143–5, 153, 157, 180

   in Iraq, 219–20

   legacy of maintenance or deactivation of, 15, 37, 46, 82–3, 120–2, 202

ruling parties (cont.)

   in Malaysia, 5, 6, 8, 13, 33n, 42, 82–4, 86, 93–100, 119, 128–30, 145, 152–6, 206, 210–11, 214, 215, 220, 221

   opposition groups’ exclusion from, 2, 3, 13, 37, 42, 47, 92, 94, 100, 111, 119, 123, 148, 150, 184, 208, 217

   Philippines’ lack of, 5–6, 14, 36, 45, 76, 82, 83, 86n6, 101, 131, 157, 182, 210, 213–14, 216, 220–1

   in regime formation, 35, 37, 42, 44–83

   regime stability caused by, 3, 6, 11–15, 17, 30–45, 81, 84, 122–57, 180, 202–22

   splits in, 64, 67, 101, 221–2

   tactics used by, 94.

Russia, 22, 23, 30.

   See also Soviet Union

Rustow, Dankwart, 18, 19, 20

Sabri, Ali, 90, 120

Sadat, Anwar, 4, 50, 86nn4, 5

   assassination of, 93

   as Egyptian ruler, 89–93, 119, 120–1, 124, 125, 132, 150

Saghafi, Morad, 174

Santos, Alejo, 188

Santos, Jose Abad, 79

Sarawak National Party, 98

Sartori, Giovanni, 11

Saudi Arabia, 29, 34

Sayre, Francis, 78

SCC (Society of Combatant Clergy) (Iran), 105–6, 110, 159–64, 169, 170, 183

SCC (Supreme Constitutional Court) (Egypt), 125–6, 134

Scheiner, Ethan, 215–17

Schirazi, Asghar, 108

Schmitter, Philippe C., 8, 23, 29

Schumpeter, Joseph Alois, 21

Selangor, 57, 95

Semangat ’46 (Malaysian party), 131, 140, 141–5, 152, 154–6

Senegal, 20

September 11, 2001 terrorist attack (U.S.), 177

Serbia, 18n

Shafei, Hussein al-, 89

Shahrir Ahmad, 140–2

Shamseddin, Ali, 146–7

Shariat-Madari, Kazem, 68–9, 71, 72, 103, 158

Shazli, Kamal al-, 132, 135, 145, 146

Shefter, Martin, 215, 216–17

Sherif, Safwat, 132, 146, 147, 151

Sin, Jaime, 195

Singapore, 22, 33, 56, 198, 213

single-party authoritarian regimes, 28, 30, 31, 33n, 51, 76, 78, 85–91

Skocpol, Theda, 210

Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Moore), 22

Society of Combatant Clergy (Iran). See SCC

soft-liners, 13, 40, 152

South Korea, 20, 22, 213

Soviet Union, 90. See also Russia; specific post-Soviet Union countries

   collapse of, 22, 42

   political parties in, 12, 42, 86.

Spain, 20, 73, 174

Spanish-American War, 73

Sri Lanka, 20

states of emergency. See martial law

Stinchcombe, Arthur, 23–4

Stockwell, A. J., 58

“Straits Settlements, ” 56, 58

structural approaches (to regime change and stability), 17–25, 42

succession (of leaders), 122–3, 145–56, 204–5

Suez Canal, 84, 90

sugar plantations (in the Philippines), 73, 76–7, 184

sultans (in Malaysia), 56–64, 80

Supreme Constitutional Court (Egypt). See SCC

Sweden, 209

Syria, 33, 213

Tabriz (Iran), 68–9

Taiwan, 12, 221–2

Tajikstan, 30

Taliban, 177

Tancangco, Luzviminda G., 192

Tan Cheng Lock, 61

Team A (UMNO), 138–40, 152

Team B (UMNO), 138–41, 184

Tehran (Iran), 169–70, 173, 176

Tehran Times (newspaper), 161–2

Terengannu, 57, 100

Thailand, 22

The Third Wave (Huntington), 19, 25

“third wave” of democratization, 1–2, 6, 16–17, 19. See also authoritarianism; democratization; elections; regime change

   archetypal narrative of, 5–6, 17, 217–18

   durable authoritarians as able to resist, 84, 122–30

   elections during, 120, 122–8

   Iran in, 157–81

   party variations linked to varying outcomes during, 15, 34, 42, 120

   plebiscitarian politics in, 6, 25, 126, 156, 164, 188.

Thompson, Mark R., 114, 118, 194

Tocqueville, Alexis de, 6, 8

Transitions from Authoritarian Rule (O’Donnell and Schmitter), 23

transitions theory (on regime change and stability), 17, 21–3, 25, 35

Trinidad and Tobago, 20

Tudeh Party (Iran’s Communist Party), 46, 67, 68, 108

Tunisia, 213

Turkey, 20

Twenty-Third of May Front (Iran), 166–70, 172–5, 178

Ukraine, 9, 30

UMNO (United Malays National Organization)

   elite conflict resolved through, 83, 93, 131, 137–45, 220

   in Malaysia’s regime formation, 46, 47, 56, 59–64

   as Malaysia’s ruling party, 5, 6, 8, 13, 33n, 42, 86, 93–6, 98, 128–30, 145, 152–6, 206, 221

   organization of, 97, 97–8

   as protector of Malays’ privileges, 56, 59, 63–4, 94, 96, 119, 140, 142, 155, 216

   and regime stability, 122–3, 145

Unfederated Malay States, 57

Unido (United Democratic Opposition) (Philippines), 187–93, 196, 207

United Arab Emirates, 29

United Democratic Opposition (Philippines). See Unido

United Kingdom, 23

United Malays National Organization. See UMNO

United States

   Aquino in, 187

   durable democracy in, 23

   Egypt and, 90–1, 211–12

   Gamal Mubarak visits, 147

   as influence on regime change in other countries, 203, 211–12

   Iran and, 64, 68, 106, 177–9

   patronage in, 215–16

   Philippines as colony of, 5, 72–5, 111, 216

   political parties in, 11

   postcolonial Philippines and, 115, 183, 188, 190, 191, 193–6, 211

   wars of, against Iraq, 131, 148–9, 178

University of Tehran, 168–9

Uruguay, 20

Uzbekistan, 30

Van de Walle, Nicolas, 28

Vanguard Organization (Egypt), 85–6

velayat-e-fagih (Rule of the Jurisprudent–Iran), 67, 103, 160

Venezuela, 20

Ver, Fabian, 114

Visayas regions (Philippines), 184

voluntarist approaches (to regime change and stability), 17, 23–5

Von Vorys, Karl, 63

Wafd Party (Egypt), 46, 49, 51, 92, 93, 124–8, 135, 149, 150

Wafia, Mahmud Abu, 91

Waldner, David, 213

Wali, Youssef, 132, 135, 136, 145–7

Wallerstein, Immanuel, 11–12

Way, Lucan, 24

Weberian scale (of state strength), 216

Will, George, 193

working class

   in Egypt, 54n, 85

in Iran, 103, 166, 176–7

World Bank, 115

World Bank Database of Political Indicators, 29

Wurfel, David, 185–6

Yashar, Deborah, 24

Yazdi, Mohammad, 166, 167

Youth Organization (Egypt), 85–6

Zaki, Moheb, 126

Zambia, 213

Zimbabwe, 217


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