TERRORISM, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AND POLITICAL OPENNESS
To what extent are terrorism and development related? What are the relative weights of the economic, political, and social aspects of development? What is the development effect of different responses to terrorism? This volume addresses these crucial questions, synthesizing what we do know about the development links with terrorism and pointing out what we do not know. Contributors to this volume examine the economic and fiscal costs of terrorism and the response to terrorism. They conclude that the economic costs of terrorism in rich countries are low relative to the economic costs of combating terrorism; both are likely high in poor countries. They also report evidence on how development affects terrorism. This work supports the hypothesis that political development – political openness and the quality of government – is inversely associated with the emergence of terrorist organizations. Though less clearly, it also supports the proposition that national economic development – mainly international openness – can moderate terrorism.
Philip Keefer is a Lead Research Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. Since receiving his Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in St. Louis in 1991, he has worked continuously on the interaction of institutions, political economy, and economic development. The issues addressed in this work range from the effect of insecure property rights on economic growth to the effect of political credibility on the fiscal and monetary policy choices of governments. His work has appeared in numerous economics and political science journals, including the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the American Political Science Review, and the American Journal of Political Science. Dr. Keefer has worked intensively in or on numerous countries, including Bangladesh, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, Peru, and the Philippines.
Norman Loayza is a Lead Research Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. He was born in Arequipa, Peru, and received a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University in 1994. Since then, he has worked at the research group of the World Bank, with an interruption of two years (1999–2000) when he worked as senior economist at the Central Bank of Chile. Dr. Loayza has studied several areas related to economic and social development, including economic growth, social conflict, and crime and poverty alleviation. He has edited five books; is coeditor of the book series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policy; and has published more than 30 articles in professional journals, such as the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Journal of International Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, and the Journal of Law and Economics.
Terrorism, Economic Development, and
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Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Terrorism, economic development, and political openness / Philip Keefer, Norman Loayza.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-521-88758-8 (hardback)
1. Terrorism. 2. Terrorism – Economic aspects. 3. Terrorism – Political aspects.
I. Loayza, Norman. II. Title.
ISBN 978-0-521-88758-8 hardback
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|List of Tables||page vii|
|List of Figures||xi|
|Overview: Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness||1|
|Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza|
|PART ONE. THE COSTS OF TERRORISM|
|1||Economic Consequences of Terrorism in Developed and Developing Countries: An Overview||17|
|Todd Sandler and Walter Enders|
|2||The Costs of Responding to the Terrorist Threats: The U.S. Case||48|
|Gregory F. Treverton, Justin L. Adams, James Dertouzos, Arindam Dutta, Susan S. Everingham, and Eric V. Larson|
|PART TWO. DEVELOPMENT, DEMOCRACY, AND THE ORIGINS
|3||From (No) Butter to Guns? Understanding the Economic Role in Transnational Terrorism||83|
|S. Brock Blomberg and Gregory D. Hess|
|4||The Lexus and the Olive Branch: Globalization, Democratization, and Terrorism||116|
|S. Brock Blomberg and Gregory D. Hess|
|5||Kto Kogo?: A Cross-Country Study of the Origins and Targets of Terrorism||148|
|Alan B. Krueger and David D. Laitin|
|6||Terrorism and Civil War||174|
|PART THREE. THE ORIGINS OF TERRORISTS|
|7||The Political, Economic, and Organizational Sources of Terrorism||209|
|David D. Laitin and Jacob N. Shapiro|
|8||Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know, and the Data We Need||233|
|Fernanda Llussá and José Tavares|
List of Tables
|0.1 Elections and good government||page 9|
|1.1 Macroeconomics studies of the effect of terrorism||34|
|1.2 Microeconomic studies of the effect of terrorism||41|
|1.3 Measurement of economic consequences of terrorism: Panel versus time series||43|
|1.4 Economic effect of terrorism: Summarizing principles||44|
|2.1 Changing U.S. perceptions of “security”||49|
|2.2 Defining terms||49|
|2.3 Some previous estimates of higher security costs||52|
|2.4 U.S. federal government estimated security costs, FY 2004||60|
|2.5 Summary of nondefense costs||65|
|2.6 Funding for Iraq, Afghanistan, and enhanced security, FY 2001–2005 in $billions||67|
|2.7 DoD obligations of funds for Iraq, Afghanistan, and enhanced security, FY 2001–2004 in ($billions)||68|
|2.8 Ten largest foreign assistance activities (excluding international financing), by FY 2004 outlays||70|
|2.9 British budget allocations for counterterrorism and domestic security||73|
|2.10 Federal grants to states and localities||74|
|2.11 Summary of private costs of antiterrorism||75|
|2.12 Total post-9/11 equilibrium for incremental spending on Homeland Security by the U.S., annual in $billion||77|
|3.1 Measures of international terrorism 1968–2003||91|
|3.2 Terrorism by development and governance||94|
|3.3 Terrorism by globalization and region||95|
|3.4 Terrorism by region||95|
|3.5 International terrorist incidents cross-country regressions: 1968–2003||100|
|3.6 International terrorist incidents panel regressions: 1968–2003||104|
|3.7 International violent terrorist incidents panel regressions: 1968–2003||105|
|3.8 Domestic terrorist incidents panel regressions: 1998–2003 full country sample||106|
|3.9 Terrorism in country, annual average 1968–2003||109|
|4.1 Terrorism by growth and governance: 189 country sample||124|
|4.2 Terrorism by globalization: 189 countries||124|
|4.3 Terrorism by globalization and democratization: 210 countries||124|
|4.4 Gravity model for terrorist incidents by location: 1968–2003 full country sample||130|
|4.5 Robustness checks: Gravity model for terrorist incidents: 1968–2003 full country sample||136|
|4.6 Gravity model for terrorist incidents by nationality: 1968–2003 full country sample||139|
|4.7 Gravity model for victims of terrorism: 1968–2003 full country sample||141|
|4.8 Gravity model for terrorist victims of U.S.: 1968–2003 full country sample||143|
|5.1 Number of terrorist events originating from each country and events per million people||154|
|5.2 Description of events||156|
|5.3 All events: Sample means, depending on origin, target, or place of occurrence||159|
|5.4 Suicide attacks: Sample means, depending on origin, target, or place of occurrence||162|
|5.5 Terrorist attacks per million population (origin or target country) by country characteristics||164|
|5.6 Negative binomial regressions with country-level data (unit of observation is country of origin of terrorist, prime target of terrorists, or country where the event occurred)||168|
|5.7 Target country’s GDP per capita quartile||170|
|5.8 Target country civil liberties||171|
|6.1a Logit model of the incidence of civil war, 1997–2003||189|
|6.1b Logit model of the incidence of terrorism, 1997–2003 (excluding civil wars)||189|
|6.1c Logit model of terrorism or civil war with democracy-income interactions||190|
|6.2 Multinomial logit model of political terrorism and civil war||194|
|8.1 Measurement of terrorist activity: Paper overview||255|
|8.2 Nature of terrorists: Paper overview||262|
|8.3 Utility cost of terrorism: Paper overview||272|
|8.4 Effect of terrorism on aggregate output: Paper overview||273|
|8.5 Terrorism and specific sectors of activity: Paper overview||278|
|8.6 Terrorism and economic policy: Paper overview||289|
|8.7 Countering terrorism: Paper overview||291|
List of Figures
|1.1 Iterate and MIPT annual incident counts||page 24|
|1.2 Macroeconomics variables and 9/11||27|
|2.1 Trend in Department of Homeland Security funding||62|
|2.2 Trend in international assistance programs||63|
|2.3 Trend in DHS components – Customs and INS||64|
|2.4 Trend in DHS components – transportation security||64|
|2.5 Real foreign assistance outlays (excluding international financing), FY 1998 to FY 2004 (in billions)||72|
|3.1a Map of the world by terrorist incidents||96|
|3.1b Map of world by terrorist incidents per capita||97|
|3.2a Terrorists incidents by development, democracy, and globalization||101|
|3.2b Terrorists incidents per capita by development, democracy, and globalization||102|
|4.1a 1968–2003 T imports and T exports||128|
|4.1b 1968–2003 T imports and T exports: Conditional||129|
|5.1 Radar plot for origin countries of terrorist, relative to all countries||160|
|5.2 Radar plot of targeted countries of terrorist, relative to all countries||160|
|5.3 Radar plot: Origin countries of suicide terrorists, all countries||163|
|5.4 Radar plot: Targeted countries of suicide terrorists, all countries||163|
Justin L. Adams is a director of economic studies at Forward Observer, a political economics consulting firm in Sacramento, California, whose previous research at RAND included defense economics and international economic development.
S. Brock Blomberg is a professor at Claremont McKenna College with appointments in the economics department and the politics, philosophy, and economics program. He has written extensively on the economics of terrorism in journals, books, and newspapers. He has held appointments on the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the International Monetary Fund, Harvard University, Wellesley College, and the University of Southern California.
James Dertouzos is a Senior Economist who has worked on a variety of policy issues at RAND since 1979, including public sector resource allocation, civil justice, and market regulation.
Arindam Dutta is a doctoral fellow at RAND and a consultant for the World Bank, focusing on the economics of international health, development in South Asia, and program evaluation.
Walter Enders, a Professor of Economics and Lee Bidgood Chair of Economics and Finance at the University of Albama, was selected as the 2004 recipient of the Blackmon-Moody Award, one of the highest honors bestowed on faculty at the university. In 2003, the National Academy of Sciences selected him as a corecipient of its Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War. Professor Enders and Professor Todd Sandler (see p. xvi) were chosen “for their joint work on transnational terrorism using game theory and time-series analysis to document the cyclic and shifting nature of terrorist attacks in response to defensive counteractions,” according to the announcement by the NAS.
Susan S. Everingham is the Director of International Programs within RAND’s National Security Research Division, whose earlier work focused on mathematical modeling of defense systems, cost-benefit analysis of drug and criminal justice policies, and military personnel management.
Gregory D. Hess, the Russell S. Bock Chair of Public Economics and Taxation, is currently the dean of faculty and vice president for academic affairs at Claremont McKenna College. He is a graduate of the University of California, Davis, and earned master’s and doctorate degrees at The Johns Hopkins University. Before coming to CMC, he was the Danforth-Lewis Professor of Economics at Oberlin College and a lecturer at Cambridge University and Fellow of St. John’s College. He has served as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, DC, and has been a visiting scholar at the Bank of Japan, the International Monetary Fund, and the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Kansas City, and St. Louis. His teaching and research interests include macroeconomics, public finance, monetary policy, macroeconomics, and political economy.
Philip Keefer is a Lead Economist in the World Bank’s Development Research Group. His work focuses on the effect of political and social institutions on development. Before joining the Bank in 1994, he was Associate Director of the IRIS Center at the University of Maryland. In 1989–1990, he worked with the Instituto Libertad y Democracia in Lima, Peru. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in St. Louis, in 1991.
Alan B. Krueger is the Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He is currently editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the most widely read journal in the economics profession. A prolific author, he has published widely on the economics of education, income dispersion, technological change, labor demand, social insurance, health economics, and environmental economics. Named a Sloan Fellow in Economics in 1992 and a National Bureau of Economic Research Olin Fellow in 1989–1990, he was a Fellow of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences in 1999–2000. After a brief stint as Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor, he was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1996. The following year he received the Kershaw Prize, which is awarded to a scholar under the age of 40 who has made distinguished contributions to public policy analysis. He received a B.S. with honors from Cornell University and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.
David D. Laitin is the Watkins Professor of Political Science at Stanford University. He received his B.A. from Swarthmore College and his Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has conducted field research on issues of language, religion, and nationalism in Somalia, Yorubaland (Nigeria), Catalonia (Spain), and Estonia. His books include Politics, Language and Thought: The Somali Experience (1977); Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change Among the Yoruba (1986); Somalia: Nation in Search of a State (1987, with Said Samatar); Language Repertoires and State Construction in Africa (1992); and Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (1998). He has also conducted research on civil wars and international terrorism, most of it in collaboration with James Fearon (“Ethnicity, Insurgency and Civil War” in the American Political Science Review ) but also with Eli Berman and Alan Krueger.
Eric V. Larson is a senior policy researcher whose past research has focused on national security and defense planning issues, including the war on terrorism.
Fernanda Llussá is an Assistant Professor of Economics and Business at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, in Portugal. She completed her Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Los Angeles in 2003. Her master’s degree at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, in Brazil, resulted in the thesis “Credibility and Public Debt Management: A Case Study of Brazil,” awarded a National Prize in Economics by Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) and later published as a book. Professor Llussá has conducted research at the Harvard Institute for International Development; on geography, institutions, and state growth in Brazil; and her current research interests, including the effect of aggregate shocks on institutions and economic growth, have resulted in several publications in refereed journals.
Norman Loayza is currently lead economist in the research department of the World Bank. He was born in Arequipa, Peru, and pursued high school and general university studies in Lima. He obtained a B.A. from Brigham Young University, specializing in economics and sociology, and continued his studies at Harvard University, where he received a Ph.D. in economics, in 1994. Since then, he has worked at the research group of the World Bank, with an interruption of two years (1999–2000) when he worked as senior economist at the Central Bank of Chile. Dr. Loayza has taught postgraduate courses and seminars at the University of the Pacific in Lima, the Catholic University of Chile, and the University of Sao Paulo.
Nicholas Sambanis is Associate Professor of Political Science at Yale University. He received his Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs in June 1999. His publications have appeared in several journals, including the American Political Science Review, World Politics, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Perspectives on Politics, and the Journal of African Economies. He is the coauthor of Making War and Building Peace, a book about United Nations peacebuilding published by Princeton University Press in 2006. He is coeditor of Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, two volumes of case studies on civil war, published by the World Bank in 2005, and is working on a book on the causes of self-determination movements and secessionist civil war. Professor Sambanis is researching questions on violent civil conflict; the interaction of economic development, political institutions, and civil war; and the uses of international organizations to prevent or resolve large-scale political violence.
Todd Sandler is the Robert R. and Katheryn A. Dockson Professor of International Relations and Economics at the University of Southern California and the Vibhooti Shukla Professor of Economics and Political Economy at the University of Texas at Dallas. Professor Sandler applies theoretical and empirical models of economics to the study of international political economy, defense, environmental issues, and public finance. He is particularly interested in the application of game theory (noncooperative and cooperative) and microeconomics to issues in international relations. His current work focuses on the formation of international environmental agreements and regimes. Another facet of his work analyzes alliances, intergovernmental agreements, and the design of supranational structures. He is also working on new papers on transnational terrorism, global public goods, and a new book, The Political Economy of Terrorism.
Jacob N. Shapiro is a graduate student in political science at Stanford University and CISAC predoctoral Fellow. His research focuses on the role of economic motivations in terrorist organizations and on the organizational challenges these groups face. As a Naval Reserve officer, he was assigned to the Office of Naval Intelligence and the Naval Warfare Development Command. Prior to attending Stanford, he served on active duty at Special Boat Team 20 and onboard the USS Arthur W. Radford (DD-968). He received his B.A. in political science from the University of Michigan.
José Tavares is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Universidade Nova de Lisboa and research affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research in London. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and has specialized in macroeconomics with a focus on the political economy of fiscal policy and economic growth. His research has been published in academic journals in Europe and the United States, including the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Journal of Public Economics, and the European Economic Review and also appeared in edited volumes of Harvard University Press, MIT Press, and Cambridge University Press. He has undertaken research projects for the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Harvard Institute for International Development, and the Banco de Portugal. His work has received comments in the general press in the United States (New York Times) and in Portugal.
Gregory F. Treverton is director of RAND’s Center for Global Risk and Security. Earlier, he served as president and director of studies of the Pacific Council on International Policy, an initiative rooted in the American West to bring together leaders interested in international matters and their effects on domestic affairs. At RAND, he has directed the Intelligence Policy Center and the International Security and Defense Policy Center, and he serves on the faculty of the RAND Graduate School. Before joining RAND, Dr. Treverton served as vice chair of the National Intelligence Council, overseeing the writing of America’s National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). He has been Senior Fellow and Director of the Europe-America project and of the project on America’s Task in a Changed World at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York