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Handbook of Financial Stress Testing

Timothy F. Geithner, J. Doyne Farmer, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, Til Schuermann, Thom Wetzer, Richard J. Herring, Udaibir Das, Kieran Dent, Miguel Segoviano, Nicola Anderson, Alex Brazier, Andrew Haldane, Paul Nahai-Williamson, Amar Radia, Marco Gross, Jérôme Henry, Elena Rancoita, Mark D. Flood, Jonathan Jones, Matthew Pritsker, Akhtar Siddique, Greg Hopper, Robert Engle, Natasha Sarin, Lawrence H. Summers, Cees Ullersma, Iman van Lelyveld, Itay Goldstein, Yaron Leitner, Kathryn Judge, Daniel Cope, Carey Hsu, Clinton Lively, James Morgan, Evan Sekeris, Jacques Longerstaey, Brian Peters, Eduardo Canabarro, Tim P. Clark, Christine M. Cumming, Gonzalo Fernandez Dionis, Patricia C. Mosser, C. A. E. Goodhart, John Geanakoplos, William B. English, Richard B. Berner, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Kermit L. Schoenholtz, William F. Bassett, David E. Rappoport W., Grzegorz Halaj, Virginie Traclet, Tobias Adrian, James Morsink, Liliana Schumacher, Anthony Bousquet, Dawid Żochowski, Stefan Thurner, Nathanaël Benjamin, Abigail Haddow, David Jacobs
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  • Date Published: July 2022
  • availability: Available
  • format: Hardback
  • isbn: 9781108830737

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About the Authors
  • Stress tests are the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises. Their use has fundamentally changed the modeling of financial systems, financial risk management in the public and private sector, and the policies designed to prevent and mitigate financial crises. When financial crises hit, stress tests take center stage. Despite their centrality to public policy, the optimal design and use of stress tests remains highly contested. Written by an international team of leading thinkers from academia, the public sector, and the private sector, this handbook comprehensively surveys and evaluates the state of play and charts the innovations that will determine the path ahead. It is a comprehensive and interdisciplinary resource that bridges theory and practice and places financial stress testing in its wider context. This guide is essential reading for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers working on financial risk management and financial regulation.

    • Brings together expertise from academia, the public sector and the private sector to holistically treat the topic of financial stress testing
    • Assesses the strengths and weaknesses of current regulatory stress tests, offering ideas on how financial stress tests can be improved
    • Discusses the future role of stress testing in society, including climate stress testing
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    Reviews & endorsements

    ‘This well documented compendium on financial stress testing could not arrive at a more timely moment. As the world embarks on a daunting mission to reign in global warming, stress testing promises to be a key tool for helping central banks and supervisors assess climate-related risks, not only on their own balance sheets, but in the economy as a whole, as well as the books of the banks it supervises.’ Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank

    ‘Stress tests have grown from their beginnings as a simple, practical tool for communicating risk in a particular portfolio into a much broader framework. This Handbook is a thought-provoking package of thirty essays by leading academics, regulators and practitioners. Topics range widely, from fundamental scenario design to transparency considerations, feedback effects, micro versus macro perspectives, as well as the implications for different types of financial institutions. The Handbook has something for anyone interested in the state of the art, including risk professionals, regulators, policy-makers and academics.’ Wilson Ervin, former Chief Risk Officer

    ‘The 2009 bank stress tests were one of the turning points of the global financial crisis, and they are now a basic part of the supervisory toolkit. This volume provides a comprehensive overview of what we have learned about stress testing and what we still need to know to make it even more effective.’ Ben Bernanke, former Chair of the United States Federal Reserve

    ‘This excellent compilation of contributions on stress testing covers a vast spectrum ranging from the economic history of evolution of stress tests as a centerpiece in prudential regulation of the financial sector to the challenges going forward. The book covers both micro- and macro-prudential stress tests, provides a conceptual foundation for the use of both, touches upon ongoing issues such as stress tests for central counterparties, and is a must-read for practitioners, policy-makers and academics interested in creating a robust financial sector.’ Viral Acharya, New York University Stern School of Business

    ‘This is by far the most comprehensive available reference work on financial stress testing. One need only review the list of contributors to appreciate its definitive quality – many of those who invented stress testing following the Great Financial Crisis are authors. The Handbook of Financial Stress Testing covers the subject in all key dimensions, and from philosophy to execution. I strongly recommend that this magnificent compendium be read by anyone concerned with the risk of future financial crises.’ Darrell Duffie, Stanford University

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    Product details

    • Date Published: July 2022
    • format: Hardback
    • isbn: 9781108830737
    • length: 726 pages
    • dimensions: 260 x 182 x 37 mm
    • weight: 1.61kg
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Foreword Timothy F. Geithner
    1. Introduction and overview J. Doyne Farmer, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, Til Schuermann and Thom Wetzer
    Part I. History and Objectives:
    2. Objectives and challenges of stress testing Richard J. Herring and Til Schuermann
    3. Fit for purpose? The evolving role of stress testing for financial systems Udaibir Das, Kieran Dent and Miguel Segoviano
    4. Why banks failed the stress test: A progress report on stress testing ten years on Nicola Anderson, Alex Brazier, Andrew Haldane, Paul Nahai-Williamson and Amar Radia
    Part II. Inputs and Outputs:
    5. Macrofinancial stress test scenario design – for banks and beyond Marco Gross, Jérôme Henry and Elena Rancoita
    6. The role of heterogeneity in scenario design for financial stability stress testing Mark D. Flood, Jonathan Jones, Matthew Pritsker and Akhtar Siddique
    7. Designing coherent scenarios: a practitioner perspective Greg Hopper
    8. Stress testing with market data Robert Engle
    9. On market-based approaches to the valuation of capital Natasha Sarin and Lawrence H. Summers
    10. Granular data offer new opportunities for stress testing Cees Ullersma and Iman van Lelyveld
    11. Stress tests disclosure: theory, practice, and new perspectives Itay Goldstein and Yaron Leitner
    12. Stress testing during times of war Kathryn Judge
    Part III. Microprudential Stress Tests:
    13. Stress testing for commercial, investment and custody banks Daniel Cope, Carey Hsu, Clinton Lively, James Morgan, Til Schuermann and Evan Sekeris
    14. Microprudential stress testing for asset managers Jacques Longerstaey
    15. Stress testing for insurers Brian Peters
    16. Model risk management in stress testing and capital planning Eduardo Canabarro
    17. A supervisory perspective on stress testing – The U.S. experience Tim P. Clark
    18. Strengths and weaknesses of microprudential stress testing for financial institutions Christine M. Cumming
    Part IV. A Macroprudential Perspective on the Financial System:
    19. The structure of the financial system: Implications for macro-prudential stress testing Gonzalo Fernandez Dionis and Patricia C. Mosser
    20. Holistic bank regulation C. A. E. Goodhart
    21. Leverage and macro prudential policy John Geanakoplos
    22. Monetary policy and financial stability William B. English
    23. Stress testing networks: The case of central counterparties Richard B. Berner, Stephen G. Cecchetti and Kermit L. Schoenholtz
    Part V. Macroprudential Stress Tests:
    24. Enhancing stress tests by adding macroprudential elements William F. Bassett and David E. Rappoport W.
    25. Accounting for amplification mechanisms in bank stress test models at the Bank of Canada Grzegorz Halaj and Virginie Traclet
    26. Stress testing at the IMF Tobias Adrian, James Morsink and Liliana Schumacher
    27. A comprehensive approach to macroprudential stress testing Anthony Bousquet, Jérôme Henry and Dawid Żochowski
    28. A complex systems perspective on macroprudential regulation Stefan Thurner
    29. Stress testing a central bank's own balance sheet Nathanaël Benjamin, Abigail Haddow and David Jacobs
    Part VI. Concluding Thoughts: The Road Ahead:
    30. Stress testing the financial microcosm J. Doyne Farmer, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis and Thom Wetzer.

  • Editors

    J. Doyne Farmer, University of Oxford
    J. Doyne Farmer is Director of Complexity Economics at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, and is the Baillie Gifford Professor at Mathematical Institute at the University of Oxford, as well as an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is in economics, including financial stability, sustainability, technological change and economic simulation. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His past research spans complex systems, dynamical systems, time series analysis and theoretical biology. He founded the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and while a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.

    Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, Stanford University
    Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis is a Research Scholar at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), at Stanford University. She is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. Her focal areas of research are financial crises and climate finance, linked by their emphasis on addressing externalities emerging from too-big-to-fail (or too-many-to-fail) financial institutions and climate change. Subtopics of special relevance in her studies are financial regulation, models of contagion and systemic risk, financial stress testing, financial intermediation, monetary policy, asset pricing, and climate financial risks and opportunities. Her recent work has shed light on the system-wide implications of key pillars of the post-crisis regulatory reform. She has also developed novel tools, including system-wide stress tests, to measure systemic risk and evaluate policies. Kleinnijenhuis collaborates with both policymakers and practitioners, including researchers at the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and Fidelity Investments.

    Til Schuermann, Oliver Wyman
    Til Schuermann is a partner at Oliver Wyman where he advises private and public sector clients on stress testing, capital planning, enterprise-wide risk management, model risk management, climate risk and governance including board effectiveness. He serves on several advisory and editorial boards and is an associate editor of the Journal of Financial Services Research and the Journal of Risk. He played a leadership role in the design and execution of the 2009 US bank stress test and advised the banking system stress tests for Spain (2012), Slovenia (2013) and the ECB's 2014 Europe-wide stress test.

    Thom Wetzer, University of Oxford
    Thom Wetzer is Associate Professor of Law and Finance at the University of Oxford, Founding Director of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School. His research examines how law and finance can generate value and advance the public good with a particular focus on financial regulation, corporate governance, financial risk management and climate risk. Wetzer actively collaborates with policymakers and practitioners, including at the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and De Brauw Blackstone Westbroek.

    Contributors

    Timothy F. Geithner, J. Doyne Farmer, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis, Til Schuermann, Thom Wetzer, Richard J. Herring, Udaibir Das, Kieran Dent, Miguel Segoviano, Nicola Anderson, Alex Brazier, Andrew Haldane, Paul Nahai-Williamson, Amar Radia, Marco Gross, Jérôme Henry, Elena Rancoita, Mark D. Flood, Jonathan Jones, Matthew Pritsker, Akhtar Siddique, Greg Hopper, Robert Engle, Natasha Sarin, Lawrence H. Summers, Cees Ullersma, Iman van Lelyveld, Itay Goldstein, Yaron Leitner, Kathryn Judge, Daniel Cope, Carey Hsu, Clinton Lively, James Morgan, Evan Sekeris, Jacques Longerstaey, Brian Peters, Eduardo Canabarro, Tim P. Clark, Christine M. Cumming, Gonzalo Fernandez Dionis, Patricia C. Mosser, C. A. E. Goodhart, John Geanakoplos, William B. English, Richard B. Berner, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Kermit L. Schoenholtz, William F. Bassett, David E. Rappoport W., Grzegorz Halaj, Virginie Traclet, Tobias Adrian, James Morsink, Liliana Schumacher, Anthony Bousquet, Dawid Żochowski, Stefan Thurner, Nathanaël Benjamin, Abigail Haddow, David Jacobs

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