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Behavioral Decision Theory

Behavioral Decision Theory
A New Approach


  • Author: E. C. Poulton, Medical Research Council, Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge
  • Date Published: December 1994
  • availability: Available
  • format: Hardback
  • isbn: 9780521443685

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About the Authors
  • This book discusses the well known fallacies of behavioural decision theory. It shows that while an investigator is studying a well-known fallacy, he or she may introduce, without realizing it, one of the simple biases that are found in quantifying judgements. The work covers such fallacies as the apparent overconfidence that people show when they judge the probability of correctness of their answers to two-choice general knowledge questions using a one-sided rating scale; the apparent overconfidence in setting uncertainty bounds on unknown quantities when using the fractile method; the interactions between hindsight and memory; the belief that small samples are as reliable and as representative as large samples;; the regression fallacy in prediction; the availability and simulation fallacies; the anchoring and adjustment biases; and bias by frames. The aim of this book is to help readers to learn about the fallacies and thus to avoid them. As such, it will be useful reading for students and researchers in probability theory, statistics and psychology.

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    Product details

    • Date Published: December 1994
    • format: Hardback
    • isbn: 9780521443685
    • length: 336 pages
    • dimensions: 237 x 160 x 21 mm
    • weight: 0.64kg
    • contains: 36 b/w illus. 46 tables
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    1. Outline of heuristics and biases
    2. Practical techniques
    3. Apparent overconfidence
    4. Hindsight bias
    5. Small sample fallacy
    6. Conjunction fallacy
    7. Regression fallacy
    8. Base rate fallacy
    9. Availability and simulation fallacies
    10. Anchoring and adjustment bias
    11. Expected utility fallacy
    12. Bias by frames
    13. Simple biases accompanying complex biases
    14. Problem questions
    15. Training
    16. Uncertainties.

  • Author

    E. C. Poulton, Medical Research Council, Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge

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