Epidemic Models
Their Structure and Relation to Data

Table of Contents

Preface
Introduction
Part I. Conceptual Framework:
1. Some problems in the theory of infectious disease transmission and control Klaus Dietz
2. The structure of epidemic models Denis Mollison
3. Coupling methods in epidemic theory Frank Ball
4. Collective epidemic processes: a general modelling approach to the final outcome of SIR epidemics Claude Lefévre and Philippe Picard
5. The threshold concept in deterministic and stochastic models Ingemar Nasell
6. How does transmission of infection depend on population size? Mart de Jong, Odo Diekmann and Hans Heesterbeek
7. The legacy of Kermack and McKendrick Odo Diekmann, Hans Metz and Hans Heesterbeek
Part II. Spatial Models:
8. Incorporating spatial components into models of epidemic spread Andrew Cliff
9. Velocities of epidemic spread Hans Metz and Frank van den Bosch
10. Spatial epidemic models Richard Durrett
11. A perturbation approach to nonlinear deterministic epidemic waves Henry Daniels
12. Epidemic plant diseases: a stochastic model of leaf and stem lesion Lynne Billard, P. W. A. Dayananda and Zhen Zhao
Part III. Nonlinear Time and Space-Time Dynamics:
13. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data Stephen Ellner, Ronald Gallant and James Theiler
14. Seasonality, demography and the dynamics of measles in developed countries Bryan Grenfell, Ben Bolker and Adam Kleczkowski
Part IV. Heterogeneity in Human Diseases:
15. Grouping in population models Simon Levin
16. Core groups and R0s for subgroups in heterogeneous SIS and SI models John Jacquez, Carl Simon and James Koopman
17. Data driven network models for the spread of disease Martina Morris
18. The effect of antigenic diversity on endemic prevalence Sunetra Gupta, Katherine Trenholme, Martin Cox, Roy Anderson and Karen Day
Part V. Data Analysis: Estimation and Prediction:
19. Statistical challenges of epidemic data Niels Becker
20. Primary components of epidemic models Andrew Cairns
21. Estimation and prediction in tropical disease control: the example of onchocerciasis Hans Remme, Soumbey Alley and Anton Plaisier
22. Some current trends in estimating vaccine efficacy Ira Longini, Elizabeth Halloran and Michael Haber
23. Operational modelling of HIV/AIDS to assist public health control Norman Bailey
Appendix. Problem areas S. Ellner, O. Diekmann and N. Becker.

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