Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c4f8m Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T08:31:39.760Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

8 - Bluffing Preventive War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2019

William Spaniel
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
Get access

Summary

Opponents of would-be proliferators would like to leverage the threat of preventive war to convince would-be proliferators not to develop nuclear weapons without having to offer any concessions. How do negotiations play out when the would-be proliferators doubt the credibility of such threats? This chapter develops a model of uncertainty over a declining state's cost of preventive war. Weak declining states sometimes offer full concessions and sometimes bluff strength by offering no concessions. As a result, upon not receiving concessions, potential proliferators do not know whether they should develop a weapon. They optimally respond by sometimes challenging the bluff, which results in nuclear proliferation against weak opponents and preventive war against strong opponents. I then trace the mechanism by studying Israel's response to Iraq's nuclear program.
Type
Chapter
Information
Bargaining over the Bomb
The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations
, pp. 157 - 186
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • Bluffing Preventive War
  • William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh
  • Book: Bargaining over the Bomb
  • Online publication: 08 February 2019
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108630610.008
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Bluffing Preventive War
  • William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh
  • Book: Bargaining over the Bomb
  • Online publication: 08 February 2019
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108630610.008
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Bluffing Preventive War
  • William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh
  • Book: Bargaining over the Bomb
  • Online publication: 08 February 2019
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108630610.008
Available formats
×