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4 - Does Nuclear Proficiency Induce Compliance?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2019

William Spaniel
Affiliation:
University of Pittsburgh
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Summary

Do states need to possess nuclear weapons to coerce their rivals? This chapter argues that the threat to proliferate alone is sufficient. To test the theory, I gather data on nuclear proficiency and compare it to outcomes of militarized interstate disputes. When an average country with low nuclear proficiency initiates a militarized dispute, I estimate that its target reciprocates in kind roughly 68% of the time. However, a country with high proficiency sees its disputes reciprocated only about 42% of the time. The 26 percentage point decrease is both statistically and substantively significant, thereby providing solid evidence that defending states internalize their opponents' potential nuclear capabilities in times of crisis.
Type
Chapter
Information
Bargaining over the Bomb
The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations
, pp. 59 - 74
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

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