Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- Preface
- 1 Can Adversaries Communicate?
- 2 How Perceptions of Intentions Form
- PART I THEORY
- PART II EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
- APPENDICES
- Appendix A Proofs for Chapters 3–6
- Appendix B The Inference Dataset
- Appendix C Demands, Offers, and Assurances Dataset
- Appendix D German Inferences Prior to World War II
- References
- Index
Appendix B - The Inference Dataset
from APPENDICES
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 25 October 2017
- Frontmatter
- Dedication
- Contents
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- Preface
- 1 Can Adversaries Communicate?
- 2 How Perceptions of Intentions Form
- PART I THEORY
- PART II EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
- APPENDICES
- Appendix A Proofs for Chapters 3–6
- Appendix B The Inference Dataset
- Appendix C Demands, Offers, and Assurances Dataset
- Appendix D German Inferences Prior to World War II
- References
- Index
Summary
The database comprises inferences drawn in the Confidential Print of the British Government between 1855 and July, 1914 about the securityrelated behavior and intentions of other great powers in Europe. The other European great powers were: Austria–Hungary, France, Germany, and Russia. The inferences were drawn from letters, memoranda, dispatches, speeches, and other documents deemed important enough by the British Foreign Office to be included in its archive, known as the Confidential Print. Inferences were classified as “security-related” if they concerned relative power, decisions about the use of force, alliance politics or influence or control over territory. Inferences about economic matters were also included when these were presented as affecting security concerns.
Documents of substantive importance from these years have been included in three published documents collections. The first is the wellknown British Documents on the Origins of the War (ed. G. P. Gooch and Harold Temperley), a 13-volume set containing many of the most important documents from the years 1898–1914. The second documents collection is the series of “blue” and “white” books (named for the distinctive color of their covers) offered to Parliament and published as Parliamentary Papers. The third collection of papers is the largest: Documents on British Foreign Policy. The editors of this documents collection have ensured that the material consists only of documents that are unavailable in the other two collections. Together, these three collections provide a comprehensive record of all substantively important documents from the Confidential Print over this time period.
An observation in the dataset is an inference by the British about another European power. Inferences were defined by both the ground or cause of the inference and the conclusion drawn. If multiple inference causes were listed for the same conclusion, multiple observations were coded. Similarly, if one cause resulted in two conclusions, this was coded as two observations. In the case that a single action or state of affairs resulted in inferences about the behavior of three states, that was coded as three observations. If an identical inference was drawn on multiple occasions, only the first instance was coded as an observation and the number of identical inferences was listed as a variable.
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- DiplomacyCommunication and the Origins of International Order, pp. 259 - 260Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2017