Introduction

In a very real sense, the conflict between India and Pakistan constitutes an archetype for an “enduring rivalry.” This is true with regard to origins, intensity of violence, failures in both mediation and conflict management, and persistence. Beyond the war-prone dynamics of the rivalry relationship itself, the Indo-Pakistani dyad exhibits a number of structural characteristics that increase the likelihood of large-scale violence. Moreover, the multiple tests of nuclear weapons by both states in May of 1998 have added the possibility of a level of destruction in a future conflict not witnessed since the end of World War II. This chapter will explore the prospects for war and peace within the Indo-Pakistani rivalry.

General patterns of enduring rivalries

As Frank Wayman observes, geographic contiguity or an unresolved territorial dispute are factors common to most rivalries. This pattern has been noted in general studies on war-prone dyads as well as in specific analyses of rivalries. According to Wayman, in his rivalry database covering the years 1816 through 1986, “[a]t least a third of the twenty-eight enduring rival dyads are born feuding.” Three cases date from the political formation of both states: India–Pakistan, 1947–86; Syria–Israel, 1948–79; and North Korea–South Korea, 1949–86. All three cases involve a contiguous border – and contending territorial claims.