Skip to main content

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
Cancel
×
×
Home
  • Home
Chapter
  • Get access
    Buy the print book
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
    Log in Register Recommend to librarian
  • Cited by 2
  • Cited by
    Crossref Citations
    Crossref logo
    This (lowercase (translateProductType product.productType)) has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.
    Liang, Lei Guo, Huadong Li, Xinwu and Cheng, Xiao 2013. Automated ice-sheet snowmelt detection using microwave radiometer measurements. Polar Research, Vol. 32, Issue. 1, p. 19746.
    Benn, Douglas I. 2006. Glaciers. Progress in Physical Geography, Vol. 30, Issue. 3, p. 432.
    ×
  • Print publication year: 2004
  • Online publication date: October 2009

13 - Antarctica: modelling

Export citation
Summary

Introduction

Mathematical modelling represents a vital tool for understanding and predicting the current and future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet. Above all, modelling tries to overcome the limitations of space and time associated with making direct observations. The dynamical timescales associated with many components of the Antarctic ice sheet are far larger than the limited period for which measurements are available. Models also generate information over the entire ice sheet and can yield insight into many processes that are often inaccessible for direct observation such as at the ice-sheet base. In addition, models are the only tools we have at our disposal to forecast the future evolution of the ice sheet.

Today, the Antarctic ice sheet contains 89% of global ice volume, or enough ice to raise sea level by more than 60 m (Table 13.1). Hence, only a small fractional change of its volume would have a significant effect on the global environment. The average annual solid precipitation falling onto the ice sheet is equivalent to 5.1 mm of sea level, this input being approximately balanced by ice discharge into floating ice shelves, which experience melting and freezing at their underside and eventually break up to form icebergs.

Changes in ice discharge generally involve response times of the order of 102 to 104 years. These timescales are determined by isostasy, the ratio of ice thickness to yearly mass turnover, processes affecting ice viscosity and physical and thermal processes at the bed.

Recommend this book

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this book to your organisation's collection.

Mass Balance of the Cryosphere
  • Online ISBN: 9780511535659
  • Book DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511535659
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to *

CAPTCHA *

Skip to the audio challenge
×
References
Alley, R. B. and Whillans, I. M. 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254, 959–63
Anandakrishnan, S. and Alley, R. B. 1997. Stagnation of ice stream C, West Antarctica by water piracy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24 (3), 265–8
Anandakrishnan, S., Blankenship, D. D., Alley, R. B. and Stoffa, P. L. 1998. Influence of subglacial geology on the position of a West Antarctic ice stream. Nature 394, 62–5
Barcilon, V. and MacAyeal, D. R. 1993. Steady flow of a viscous ice stream across a no-slip/free-slip transition at the bed. J. Glaciol. 39 (131), 167–85
Barker, P. F., Barrett, P. J., Cooper, A. F. K. and Huybrechts, P. 1999. Antarctic glacial history from numerical models and continental margin sediments. Palaeogeog., Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol. 150, 247–67
, Bell R. E.et al. 1998. Influence of subglacial geology on the onset of a West Antarctic ice stream from aerogeophysical observations. Nature 394, 58–62
Bentley, C. R. 1997. Rapid sea-level rise soon from West Antarctic ice sheet collapse?Science 275, 1077–8
Bentley, C. R. 1998a. Ice on the fast track. Nature 394, 21–2
Bentley, C. R. 1998b. Rapid sea-level rise from a West-Antarctic ice-sheet collapse: a short-term perspective. J. Glaciol. 44 (146), 157–63
Blankenship, D. D., Bentley, C. R., Rooney, S. T. and Alley, R. B. 1986. Seismic measurements reveal a saturated porous layer beneath an active Antarctic ice stream. Nature 322, 54–7
Böhmer, W. J. and Herterich, K. 1990. A simplified 3-D ice sheet model including ice shelves. Ann. Glaciol. 14, 17–19
Braithwaite, R. J. and Olesen, O. B. 1989. Calculation of glacier ablation from air temperature, west Greenland. In Oerlemans, J., ed., Glacier Fluctuations and Climatic Change. Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 219–33
Bromwich, D. H. 1995. Ice sheets and sea level. Nature 373, 18–19
Bromwich, D. H., Cullather, R. I. and Woert, M. L. 1998. Antarctic precipitation and its contribution to the global sea-level budget. Ann. Glaciol. 27, 220–6
Budd, W. F. and Smith, I. N. 1982. Large-scale numerical modelling of the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 3, 42–9
Budd, W. F., Jenssen, D. and Radok, U. 1971. Derived Physical Characteristics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. ANARE Interim Report, Series A (IV), Glaciology Publication no. 18, University of Melbourne
Budd, W. F., Jenssen, D., Mavrakis, E. and Coutts, B. 1994. Modelling the Antarctic ice sheet changes through time. Ann. Glaciol. 20, 291–7
Budd, W. F., Reid, P. A. and Minty, L. J. 1995. Antarctic moisture flux and net accumulation from global atmospheric analyses. Ann. Glaciol. 21, 149–56
Budd, W. F., Coutts, B. and Warner, R. C. 1998. Modelling the Antarctic and northern-hemisphere ice-sheet changes with global climate through the glacial cycle. Ann. Glaciol. 27, 153–60
Church, J. A. et al. 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J. T. et al., eds., Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, pp. 639–94
Clarke, G. K. C., Nitsan, U. and Paterson, W. S. B. 1977. Strain heating and creep instability in glaciers and ice sheets. Rev. Geophys. & Space Phys. 15, 235–47
Conway, H. W., Hall, B. L., Denton, G. H., Gades, A. M. and Waddington, E. D. 1999. Past and future grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 286, 280–6
Doake, C. S. M., Corr, H. F. J., Rott, H., Skvarca, P. and Young, N. W. 1998. Breakup and conditions for stability of the northern Larsen ice shelf, Antarctica. Nature 391, 778–80
Echelmeyer, K. A., Harrison, W. D., Larsen, C. and Mitchell, J. E. 1994. The role of the margins in the dynamics of an active ice stream. J. Glaciol. 40 (136), 527–38
Fastook, J. L. and Prentice, M. L. 1994. A finite-element model of Antarctica: sensitivity test for meteorological mass balance relationship. J. Glaciol. 40 (134), 167–75
Fortuin, J. P. F. and Oerlemans, J. 1990. Parameterisation of the annual surface temperature and mass balance of Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 14, 78–84
Giovinetto, M. B. and Zwally, H. J. 1995a. An assessment of the mass budgets of Antarctica and Greenland using accumulation derived from remotely sensed data in areas of dry snow. Zeits. Gletscherkunde & Glazialgeol. 31, 25–37
Giovinetto, M. B. 1995b. Annual changes in sea ice extent and of accumulation on ice sheets: implications for sea level variability. Zeits. Gletscherkunde & Glazialgeol. 31, 39–49
Giovinetto, M. B. 2000. Spatial distribution of net surface accumulation on the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 31, 171–8
Glen, J. W. 1955. The creep of polycrystalline ice. Proc. Roy. Soc. London Series B 228, 519–38
Greve, R. and MacAyeal, D. R. 1996. Dynamic/thermodynamic simulations of Laurentide ice sheet instability. Ann. Glaciol. 23, 328–35
Greve, R., Mügge, B., Baral, D. R., Albrecht, O. and Savvin, A. 1999. Nested high-resolution modelling of the Greenland Summit Region. In Hutter, K., Wang, Y. and Beer, H., eds., Advances in Cold-Region Thermal Engineering and Sciences. Berlin, Springer Verlag, pp. 285–306
Herterich, K. 1987. On the flow within the transition zone between ice sheet and ice shelf. In Van der Veen, C. J. and Oerlemans, J., eds., Dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Dordrecht, D. Reidel, pp. 185–202
Herterich, K. 1988. A three-dimensional ice-sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 11, 32–5
Hindmarsh, R. C. A. 1993. Qualitative dynamics of marine ice sheets. In Peltier, W. R., ed., Ice in the Climate System. NATO ASI Series I 12, pp. 68–99
Hughes, T. J. 1975. The West Antarctic ice sheet: instability, disintegration, and initiation of ice ages. Rev. Geophys. & Space Phys. 13, 502–26
Hulbe, C. L. 1998. Heat balance of West Antarctic ice streams, investigated with a numerical model of coupled ice sheet, ice stream and ice shelf flow. Ph.D. thesis, University of Chicago
Hulbe, C. L. and MacAyeal, D. R. 1999. A new numerical model of coupled inland ice sheet, ice stream, and ice shelf flow and its application to the West Antarctic ice sheet. J. Geophys. Res. 104 (B11), 25 349–66
Hulbe, C. L. and Payne, A. J. 2001. The contribution of numerical modelling to our understanding of the West Antarctic ice sheet. In Alley, R. B. and Bindschadler, R. A., eds. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Behaviour and Environment. Antarctic Research Series, 77, Washington D. C., American Geophysical Union, pp. 201–19
Hutter, K. 1983. Theoretical Glaciology. Dordrecht, D. Reidel
Huybrechts, P. 1990a. A 3-D model for the Antarctic ice sheet: a sensitivity study on the glacial–interglacial contrast. Climate Dyn. 5, 79–92
Huybrechts, P. 1990b. The Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial-interglacial cycle: a three dimensional experiment. Ann. Glaciol. 11, 52–9
Huybrechts, P. 1992. The Antarctic Ice Sheet and Environmental Change: A Three-Dimensional Modeling Study. Berichte zur Polarforschung 99, Bremerhaven, Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar-und Meeresforschung
Huybrechts, P. 1994. Formation and disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 20, 336–40
Huybrechts, P. 2002. Sea-level changes at the LGM from ice-dynamic reconstructions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles. Quat. Sci. Rev. 21 (1–3), 203–31
Huybrechts, P. and Wolde, J. 1999. The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J. Climate 12 (8), 2169–88
Huybrechts, P. and Meur, E. 1999. Predicted present-day evolution patterns of ice thickness and bedrock elevation over Greenland and Antarctica. Polar Res., 18 (2), 299–308
Huybrechts, P. and Oerlemans, J. 1988. Evolution of the East Antarctic ice sheet: a numerical study of thermo-mechanical response patterns with changing climate. Ann. Glaciol. 11, 52–9
Huybrechts, P. and Oerlemans, J. 1990. Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to future greenhouse warming. Climate Dyn. 5, 93–102
Huybrechts, P.et al. 1996. The EISMINT benchmarks for testing ice-sheet models. Ann. Glaciol. 23, 1–12
Huybrechts, P. et al. 1998. Report of the Third EISMINT Workshop on Model Intercomparison. Strasbourg, European Science Foundation
Huybrechts, P., Steinhage, D., Wilhelms, F. and Bamber, J. L. 2000. Balance velocities and measured properties of the Antarctic ice sheet from a new compilation of gridded datasets for modeling. Ann. Glaciol. 30, 52–60
Imbrie, J. Z. et al. 1984. The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: support from a revised chronology of the marine δ18O record. In Berger, A. et al., eds., Milankovitch and Climate. Dordrecht, D. Reidel, pp. 269–305
Ingolfsson, O.et al. 1998. Antarctic glacial history since the last glacial maximum: an overview of the record on land. Antarctic Sci. 10 (3), 326–44
Jacobs, S. J., Hellmer, H. H. and Jenkins, A. 1996. Antarctic ice sheet melting in the Southeast Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23 (9), 957–60
Jacobson, H. P. and Raymond, C. F. 1998. Thermal effects on the location of ice stream margins. J. Geophys. Res. 103 (B6), 12 111–22
James, T. S. and Ivins, E. R. 1998. Predictions of Antarctic crustal motions driven by present-day ice sheet evolution and by isostatic memory of the last glacial maximum. J. Geophys. Res. 103 (B3), 4993–5017
Jenkins, A., Vaughan, D. G., Jacobs, S. J., Hellmer, H. H. and Keys, J. R. 1997. Glaciological and oceanographic evidence of high melt rates beneath Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. J. Glaciol. 43 (143), 114–21
Jenssen, D. 1977. A three-dimensional polar ice sheet model. J. Glaciol. 18 (80), 373–89
Kotlyakov, V. M., Losev, K. S. and Loseva, I. A. 1978. The ice budget of Antarctica. Polar Geog. & Geol. 2 (4), 251–62
Krinner, G., Genthon, C., Li, Z. X. and Van, P. 1997. Studies of the Antarctic climate with a stretched-grid general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res. 102 (D12), 13 731–45
Meur, E. and Huybrechts, P. 1996. A comparison of different ways of dealing with isostasy: examples from modeling the Antarctic ice sheet during the last glacial cycle. Ann. Glaciol. 23, 309–17
Lestringant, R. 1994. A 2D finite element study of the flow in the transition zone between an ice sheet and an ice shelf. Ann. Glaciol. 20, 67–72
Lingle, C. S. 1984. A numerical model of interactions between a polar ice stream and the ocean: application to ice stream E, West Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. 89, 3524–49
Lorius, C.et al. 1985. A 150 000-year climatic record from Antarctic ice. Nature 316, 591–6
MacAyeal, D. R. 1992. Irregular oscillations of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 359, 29–32
MacAyeal, D. R. and Thomas, R. H. 1986. The effects of basal melting on the present flow of the Ross ice shelf, Antarctica. J. Glaciol. 32 (110), 72–86
MacAyeal, D. R., Rommelaere, V., Huybrechts, P., Hulbe, C. L., Determann, J. and Ritz, C. 1996. An ice-shelf model test based on the Ross ice shelf. Ann. Glaciol. 23, 46–51
Mahaffy, M. A. W. 1976. A three-dimensional numerical model of ice sheets: tests on the Barnes ice cap, Northwest Territories. J. Geophys. Res. 81 (6), 1059–66
Manabe, S., Stouffer, R. J., Spelman, M. J. and Bryan, K. 1991. Transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to gradual changes of atmospheric CO2. Part I: Annual mean response. J. Climate 4 (8), 785–818
Mayer, C. and Huybrechts, P. 1999. Ice-dynamic conditions across the grounding zone, Ekströmisen, East Antarctica. J. Glaciol. 45 (150), 384–93
Mercer, J. H. 1978. West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Nature 271, 321–5
Mosley-Thompson, E., Paskievitch, J. F., Gow, A. J. and Thompson, L. G. 1999. Late 20th century increase in South Pole accumulation. J. Geophys. Res. 104 (D4), 3877–86
Nicholls, K. W. 1997. Predicted reduction in basal melt rates of an Antarctic ice shelf in a warmer climate. Nature 388, 460–2
Nye, J. F. 1957. The distribution of stress and velocity in glaciers and ice sheets. Proc. Roy. Soc. London Series A 239, 113–33
Oerlemans, J. 1982a. A model of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 297 (5967), 550–3
Oerlemans, J. 1982b. Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to a climatic warming: a model study. J. Climatol. 2, 1–11
Oerlemans, J. 1983. A numerical study on cyclic behaviour of polar ice sheets. Tellus 35A, 81–7
Oerlemans, J. and Van der Veen, C. J. 1984. Ice Sheets and Climate. Dordrecht, D. Reidel
Oerter, H.et al. 1992. Evidence for basal marine ice in the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf. Nature 358, 399–401
O'Farrell, S. P., McGregor, J. L., Rotstayn, L. D., Budd, W. F., Zweck, C. and Warner, R. C. 1997. Impact of transient increases in atmospheric CO2 on the accumulation and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Ann. Glaciol. 25, 137–44
Ohmura, A., Wild, M. and Bengtsson, L. 1996. Present and future mass balance of the ice sheets simulated with GCM. Ann. Glaciol. 23, 187–93
Oppenheimer, M. 1998. Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 393, 325–32
Pattyn, F. 1996. Numerical modelling of a fast flowing outlet glacier: experiments with different basal conditions. Ann. Glaciol. 23, 237–46
Payne, A. J. 1995. Limit cycles in the basal thermal regime of ice sheets. J. Geophys. Res. 100 (B3), 4249–63
Payne, A. J. 1999. A thermomechanical model of ice flow in West Antarctica. Climate Dyn. 15, 115–25
Payne, A. J.et al. 2000. Results from the EISMINT Phase 2 simplified geometry experiments: the effects of thermomechanical coupling. J. Glaciol. 46(153), 227–38
Peel, D. A. and Mulvaney, R. 1988. Air temperature and snow accumulation in the Antarctic Peninsula during the past 50 years. Ann. Glaciol. 11, 206–7
Petit, J. R.et al. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399, 429–36
Reeh, N. 1991. Parameterisation of melt rate and surface temperature on the Greenland ice sheet. Polarforschung 59, 113–28
Retzlaff, R. and Bentley, C. R. 1993. Timing of stagnation of ice stream C, West Antarctica, from short-pulse radar studies of buried surface crevasses. J. Glaciol. 39 (133), 553–61
Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C. 2001. Modeling the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420000 years: implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region. J. Geophys. Res. 106 (D23), 31 943–64
Robin, G. de Q. 1977. Ice cores and climatic change. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. A. 280, 143–68
Rommelaere, V. and MacAyeal, D. R. 1997. Large-scale rheology of the Ross ice shelf, Antarctica, computed by a control method. Ann. Glaciol. 24, 43–8
Savvin, A., Greve, R., Calov, R., Mügge, B. and Hutter, K. 2000. Simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet with a three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model, in support of the EPICA project. II: Nested high-resolution treatment of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 30, 69–75
Schubert, G. and Yuen, D. A. 1982. Initiation of ice ages by creep instability and surging of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 296, 127–30
Skvarca, P., Rack, W., Rott, H. and Ibarzabal y Donangelo, T. 1998. Evidence of recent climatic warming on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula. Ann. Glaciol. 27, 628–32
Smith, I. N., Budd, W. F. and Reid, P. 1998. Model estimates of Antarctic accumulation rates and their relationship to temperature changes. Ann. Glaciol. 27, 246–50
Steig, E. J. 1997. How well can we parameterize past accumulation rates in polar ice sheets?Ann. Glaciol. 25, 418–22
Stephenson, S. N. and Bindschadler, R. A. 1988. Observed velocity fluctuations on a major Antarctic ice stream. Nature 334, 695–7
Thomas, R. H. 1979. The dynamics of marine ice sheets. J. Glaciol. 24 (90), 167–77
Thomas, R. H. and Bentley, C. R. 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Quat. Res. 10, 150–70
Thomas, R. H., Sanderson, T. J. O. and Rose, K. E. 1979. Effect of climatic warming on the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 277, 355–8
Thompson, S. L. and Pollard, D. 1997. Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for present and doubled atmospheric CO2 from the GENESIS version-2 global climate model. J. Climate 10, 871–900
Turner, J., Connolley, W. M., Leonard, S., Marshall, G. J. and Vaughan, D. G. 1999. Spatial and temporal variability of net snow accumulation over the Antarctic from ECMWF re-analysis project data. Int. J. Climatol. 19, 697–724
Tushingham, A. M. and Peltier, W. R. 1991. Ice-3G: a new global model of Late Pleistocene deglaciation based upon geophysical predictions of post-glacial relative sea level change. J. Geophys. Res. 96 (B3), 4497–523
Veen, C. J. 1985. Response of a marine ice sheet to changes at the grounding line. Quat. Res. 24, 257–67
Van der Veen, C. J. 1986. Ice sheets, atmospheric CO2 and sea level. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Utrecht
Van Lipzig, N. P. M. 1999. The surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet: a study with a regional atmospheric model. Ph.D. thesis, University of Utrecht
Vaughan, D. G. and Doake, C. S. M. 1996. Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature 379, 328–31
Vaughan, D. G. and Spouge, J. 2002. Risk estimation of collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Climatic Change 52, 65–91
Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Giovinetto, M. B., Russell, J. and Cooper, A. P. R. 1999. Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica. J. Climate 12, 933–46
Warner, R. C. and Budd, W. F. 1998. Modelling the long-term response of the Antarctic ice sheet to global warming. Ann. Glaciol. 27, 161–8
Weertman, J. 1957. Deformation of floating ice shelves. J. Glaciol. 3, 38–42
Weertman, J. 1974. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13 (67), 3–11
Wild, M. and Ohmura, A. 2000. Changes in mass balance of the polar ice sheets and sea level under greenhouse warming as projected in high resolution GCM simulations. Ann. Glaciol. 30, 197–203
Williams, M. J. M., Jenkins, A. and Determann, J. 1998. Physical controls on ocean circulation beneath ice shelves revealed by numerical models. In Jacobs, S. J. and Weiss, R. F., eds., Ocean, Ice, and Atmosphere: Interactions at the Antarctic Continental Margin. Antarctic Research Series 75. Washington D. C., American Geophysical Union, pp. 285–99
Williams, M. J. M., Warner, R. C. and Budd, W. F. 1998. The effects of ocean warming on melting and ocean circulation under the Amery ice shelf, East Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 27, 75–80
Wingham, D. J., Ridout, A. J., Scharroo, R., Arthern, R. J. and Shum, C. K. 1998. Antarctic elevation change from 1992 to 1996. Science 282, 456–8
Yiou, F., Raisbeck, G. M., Bourles, D., Lorius, C. and Barkov, N. I. 1985. 10Be in ice at Vostok Antarctica during the last climatic cycle. Nature 316, 616–17
Yuen, D. A., Saari, M. R. and Schubert, G. 1986. Explosive growth of shear-heating instabilities in the down-slope creep of ice sheets. J. Glaciol. 32 (112), 314–20
Cancel
Confirm
×