This article investigates the direct impact of energy prices (Crude Oil and Natural Gas) on agricultural markets (wheat, maize, soybeans) and the indirect effect through fertilizers using monthly data covering the period from January 1990 to February 2021. Additionally, the analysis is further extended up to 2024. The conditional covariances of energy and fertilizer prices capture the spikes in the 2008 crisis and the volatile time after, and the deterministic nonlinear Fourier trends eliminate the unit root problem. The results show that agricultural prices are affected directly by changes in energy prices and indirectly through fertilizer prices.

Over the past 5 years, the policy constraint posed by the sovereign bond market has strengthened. Across the G7, governments have been forced into rapid policy reversals, often due to sharp and unexpected rises in bond yields. The fact that the bond market acts as a constraint on policy—particularly on long-term investment—is well known. What has become apparent is that this market constraint has sharpened and now shapes G7 policymaking outside periods of acute crisis. This paper examines the bond market constraint, and how it has evolved in recent years. The past 5 years have seen a striking evolution, with record levels of G7 debt issued. Focusing on the United States and the United Kingdom, we outline two key empirical puzzles: first, for both, bond yields appear higher than justified by benchmark models; second, in the United Kingdom, yields have become highly (and surprisingly) volatile. We then review candidate explanations for these changes. We posit and examine new forces—demographic shocks, news coverage of fiscal watchdogs, the role of hedge funds and stablecoins. Finally, we use a simple econometric framework to provide a first test of whether these forces may explain bond yields. We find indicative evidence that they do. However, much remains unexplained, suggesting the importance of further work to understand the implications of the higher debt costs across the G7. As part of this analysis, we introduce a new dataset of fiscal watchdog media salience and publication patterns, which we make available to support future research.

Joint clinical assessments (JCAs) under the European Union (EU) Regulation 2021/2282 on health technology assessment (HTA-R) and its implementing regulations have been linked to various implementation challenges. However, legal implications of practically relevant issues have mostly remained unexplored. This study investigated potential legal implications of disparities regarding patient population, intervention, comparator, and outcomes (PICOs) in JCAs from respective member states (MSs), and of managing conflicts of interest (CoIs) of experts involved in a JCA. Moreover, we discussed potential consequences for patient access. JCA reports are not legally binding for MS; PICO disparities can underpin the required justification for their non-consideration at national level. Legal action against negative reimbursement decisions due to unjustified non-consideration falls under national jurisdiction. Furthermore, too strict CoI management might leave perspectives of MSs with fewer experts and thus a higher chance of CoI occurrence unheard, requiring corresponding expert elicitation at national level. These implications might lead to an increased workload for health technology developers and national HTA bodies, potentially fostering marketing strategies and access delays. Thorough scoping processes and prioritising the need for a JCA’s scientific excellence could facilitate more streamlined national HTA procedures and accelerated patient access.

We examine the “problem of social change”, focusing on whether efforts should be oriented toward long-term ideals or piecemeal improvements. We analyse the trade-off between these approaches: pursuing ideals may require short-term sacrifices, while incremental changes may hinder realizing an ideal. We introduce an analytical framework for structuring thought experiments that can provide traction on these issues, and present two implementations that provide baseline insights and motivate further research. We conclude with suggestions for extending our framework in ways that can yield insights that can guide our choice of orientation.

This article studies uniform inference on a function $g(\cdot )$ and its functionals in a nonparametric panel data model with fixed effects. The nonparametric panel model relaxes restrictions on time-series behavior by allowing for arbitrary types of stationary or nonstationary dependence (e.g., stationary mixingale, mildly stationary, or local-to-unity process). After removing the fixed effects via transformations, a sieve estimator is proposed, accompanied by Yurinskii’s coupling principle of Gaussian processes and uniform confidence bands (UCBs) that rely on the sieve score bootstrap method to test for linear functionals of $g(\cdot )$. Under the asymptotic framework of an increasing cross-sectional dimension and either a fixed or diverging time dimension, we prove that the bootstrapping Kolmogorov–Smirnov (sup-type) test has asymptotic uniform size controls. This article shows that our uniform inference procedure can be extended to the two-way fixed-effects nonparametric panel model with stationary mixingale regressors. Extensive simulations confirm that our sieve estimators and their UCBs work well in finite samples. The present article further applies the above methods to empirical settings and finds some interesting results in nonlinear patterns of consumption concerning income shocks and asset holdings.

Industrial energy consumption in Spain increased significantly since 1960, driven by fossil fuels, with dependence on them barely decreasing until the 2008 crisis. This paper analyzes whether the phase-out of fossil fuels in Spanish industry was delayed by structural constraints inherent in the sector. It presents novel annual series of primary and final energy use, useful work and energy intensity across twelve sectors over 1960–2021. Data from five statistics were compiled, corrected, and harmonized. Results indicate that three sectors—building materials, steelmaking, and chemicals—accounted for more than half of primary consumption throughout the period. The carbonization of electricity generation in the first period and high thermal requirements and size of these sectors, particularly during the construction boom, hindered electrification and reductions in energy intensity. As in other Southern European industries, the weight of construction may have slowed the transition to a zero-emissions industry in the early twenty-first century.

Agents frequently engage with multiple principals simultaneously – for example, when borrowing from several banks or peers. In such settings, principals typically possess less information about the agent’s ability or intentions (e.g., to repay a loan) and must rely on trust. This paper presents experimental evidence from trust games framed in a credit market context to examine the role of reciprocity in interactions involving multiple principals (lenders) and a single agent (borrower). Agents were asked to decide whether to act trustworthily and repay, or to default and act selfishly, after receiving the same credit amount from either one or multiple principals. The results show that reciprocity declines when the number of trusting principals increases. A key mechanism appears to be the reduced marginal harm that an agent’s default imposes on each individual principal. Additionally, agents seem less sensitive to the negative consequences of their actions when multiple principals are affected. These findings suggest that interactions involving multiple principals are behaviorally riskier than bilateral ones. The results have implications for the design of incentive structures in multi-principal-agent environments, such as crowdlending platforms.

Frank Knight’s work is examined through the lens provided by the posthumous publication of his essay “Economic History” in the Dictionary of the History of Ideas in 1973. Knight identified pivotal ideas in economics from Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations until the time of his retirement from the University of Chicago, with some recognition of earlier contributions. The priority he gave to liberty within economics shows in the connection between Adam Smith and American independence. He then worked his way chronologically through a consideration of eight “moments” from classical economics, almost all declared errors. After identifying marginalism with the turn to economic science in three moments, he identified fifteen more moments that led to the development of a science focused on entrepreneurs and enterprises. Knight’s conclusion provides brief mention of six movements that claimed to conflict with economics, although Knight argued that none of them actually conflict.