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Sunspots are the most obvious and high contrast observable feature of solar magnetic activity in the photosphere. The morphological and kinematic behavior of sunspots on the solar surface need to be studied over a long time period to understand solar magnetic activity. For this, it is important to understand the long term emergence patterns, and developments, decay of the sunspots on the solar surface over many cycles. The long time sequence of the Kodaikanal white-light images provide a consistent data set for this study. The digitized images were calibrated for relative plate density and aligned in such a way that the solar north is in upward direction. A sunspot detection technique was used to identify the sunspots on the digitized images. In addition to describing the calibration procedure and availability of the data, we here present results on the sunspot, umbral and penumbral area measurements and their variation with time.
We have analyzed the data on yearly mean international sunspot number (RZ) during the period 1610 – 2015 and orbital positions (ecliptic longitudes) of the giant planets in each 10-day interval during the period 1600 – 2099. We determined mean absolute difference ($\overline{\psi _D}$) of the orbital positions of the giant planets in each interval. We find that there exits a good correlation between cycle amplitude (RM, i.e. the maximum value of RZ) and the value of $\overline{\psi _D}$ at cycle maximum, suggesting that on longer time scales low/high solar activity associated with less/large spread in orbital positions of the giant planets (i.e. with a low/high value of $\overline{\psi _D}$).
A number of complex systems arising in diverse disciplines may have certain quantitative features that are surprisingly similar which are classified under the paradigm of “universality”. The non-extensive Tsallis stastical mechanics and Lévy flight patterns provide a novel basis for analyzing non-equilibrium complex systems that may exhibit long-range correlations. The present work studies the scope of employing non-extensive Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) type law for the magnitude distribution of energy of solar wind, in order to investigate the existence of a universal behavior as well as to compute the relations of degree of non-extensivity and Lévy statistics in solar wind turbulence with heliographic distance during different solar cycles.
We study 30 solar flare events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that produced geomagnetic storms as measured in Dst index. Our study reveals that the magnitude of Dst index is significantly associated with maximum solar wind speed, peak of Bz component of the IMF and the product of peak Bz and solar wind speed (minimum and maximum). From our investigations, it can be inferred that CMEs travel with higher speed in the beginning and their speed reduces as they reach L1 location.
Both direct observations and reconstructions from various datasets, suggest that conditions were radically different during the Maunder Minimum (MM) than during the space era. Using an MHD model, we develop a set of feasible solutions to infer the properties of the solar wind during this interval. Additionally, we use these results to drive a global magnetospheric model. Finally, using the 2008/2009 solar minimum as an upper limit for MM conditions, we use results from the International Reference Ionosphere (ILI) model to speculate on the state of the ionosphere. The results describe interplanetary, magnetospheric, and ionospheric conditions that were substantially different than today. For example: (1) the solar wind density and magnetic field strength were an order of magnitude lower; (2) the Earth’s magnetopause and shock standoff distances were a factor of two larger; and (3) the maximum electron density in the ionosphere was substantially lower.
Here we report our recent prediction of the solar cycle 25 based on a newly developed scheme, which is used to investigate the predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle. The scheme is a combination of the empirical properties of solar cycles and a surface flux transport model to get the possible axial dipole moment evolution at a few years before cycle minimum, by which to get the subsequent cycle strength based on the correlation between the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum and the subsequent cycle strength. We apply this scheme to predict the large-scale field evolution since 2018 onwards. The results show that the northern polar field will keep on increasing, while the southern polar field almost keeps flat by the end of cycle 24. This leads to the cycle 25 strength of 125 ± 32, which is about 10% stronger than cycle 24 according to the mean value.
Our understanding of stellar dynamos has largely been driven by the phenomena we have observed of our own Sun. Yet, as we amass longer-term datasets for an increasing number of stars, it is clear that there is a wide variety of stellar behavior. Here we briefly review observed trends that place key constraints on the fundamental dynamo operation of solar-type stars to fully convective M dwarfs, including: starspot and sunspot patterns, various magnetism-rotation correlations, and mean field flows such as differential rotation and meridional circulation. We also comment on the current insight that simulations of dynamo action and flux emergence lend to our working knowledge of stellar dynamo theory. While the growing landscape of both observations and simulations of stellar magnetic activity work in tandem to decipher dynamo action, there are still many puzzles that we have yet to fully understand.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) contribute to the perturbation of solar wind in the heliosphere. Thus, depending on the different phases of the solar cycle and the rate of CME occurrence, contribution of CMEs to solar wind parameters near the Earth changes. In the present study, we examine the long term occurrence rate of CMEs, their speeds, angular widths and masses. We attempt to find correlation between near sun parameters of the CMEs with near the Earth measurements. Importantly, we attempt to find what fraction of the averaged solar wind mass near the Earth is provided by the CMEs during different phases of the solar cycles.
Full disk magnetic field measurements of the photosphere and chromosphere have been performed at National Solar Observatory (NSO), USA for many decades. Here we briefly describe recent upgrades made to this synoptic observing program. In particular, we present the full Stokes polarimetry observations made using the chromospheric Ca II 854.2 nm spectral line. These new observations have the potential to probe vector nature of magnetic field in the chromosphere above the active regions and provide improved estimates of magnetic free-energy, which is released during flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We emphasize that these observations could improve estimates of polar fields, as compared to photospheric observations, due to magnetic field expansion in higher layers and perspective effect near the polar regions. The global coronal potential field models and solar wind speed estimates depend critically on polar field measurements.
An investigation for search of correlation between the daily observations of mean magnetic field and daily flare count number in different class is studied here. The daily observations for mean magnetic field presented here are taken by Wilcox Solar observatory and daily flare count in different X-ray class is provided by National Centers For Environmental Information.
We have studied three Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) having clear signatures of magnetic cloud (MC) arrival at 1 AU and their associated solar sources during 2011 to 2013. Comparing the axial magnetic field strength (B0) of the near-Sun coronal flux-ropes with that of the MC at 1 AU, we have found that the average inferred value of B0 at 1 AU assuming the self-similar expansion of the flux-rope is two times smaller than the value of B0 obtained from the results of MC fitting. Furthermore, by comparing the initial orientation of the flux-rope near the Sun and its final orientation at 1 AU we have found that the three CMEs exhibited more than 80° rotation during its propagation through the interplanetary medium. Our study suggests that although the near-Sun magnetic properties of coronal flux-ropes can be used to infer the field strength of the associated MC at 1 AU, it is difficult to estimate the final orientation of the MC axis in order to predict the geo-effectiveness of the ICMEs.
The polar magnetic field of the Sun is a manifestation of certain aspects of the dynamo process and is a good precursor for predicting a sunspot cycle before its onset. Although actual synoptic measurements of this field exist only from the mid-1970s, it has now been possible to determine its evolution from the beginning of the twentieth century with the help of various proxies. The recently developed 3D kinematic dynamo model can study the build-up of the Sun’s polar magnetic field more realistically than the earlier surface flux transport model.
The particular environment with high temperature and low plasma density in the corona results to the formation of some forbidden emission lines, in which the well-known green line at 530.3 nm has been utilized to diagnose the corona for a few decades. For the green line, besides its contribution on revealing the long-term coronal cycles as well as their relationship to the other solar phenomena, it is also helpful to detect limb coronal waves and ejections originated from the lower corona which seems not to be paid close attention to. Suggestions are presented that we not only need to keep the green line observation as a routine task for current coronagraph observations, but need to develop larger coronagraphs with advanced technology.
Regular reconstruction of global solar corona constrained by observational data is required to monitor the space weather variations. We develop a model for simulating the global coronal magnetic field using magnetofrictional approach. Here we perform simulations to study the evolution of the magnetic field associated with a bipolar active region in response to photospheric flows.
Superposed epoch analysis (SPEA) is commonly used to determine some basic structure in a collection of geophysical time series. The present study tries to analyze ionospheric Joule heating response at high latitudes, to the prevailing solar wind and IMF conditions on the basis of SPEA. Major geomagnetic storms (CME driven) over three consecutive solar cycles (SC 22, 23 and 24) have been selected. Ascending phase, solar maximum, and declining phase are investigated separately, for each solar cycle, to find out crucial controlling parameters for the generation of high-latitude ionospheric Joule heating. SPEA results show that, IMF parameters such as IMF By, IMF Bz, IMF clock angle and solar wind parameters such as dynamic pressure and proton density influence Joule heating production rate significantly. Meanwhile, the relentlessness of the other parameters such as IMFBt and solar wind bulk speed show that they have poor impact on Joule heating.
After decades of effort, the solar magnetic cycle is exceptionally well characterized, but it remains poorly understood. Pioneering work at the Mount Wilson Observatory demonstrated that other Sun-like stars also show regular activity cycles, and identified two distinct relationships between the rotation rate and the length of the cycle. The solar cycle appears to be an outlier, falling between the two stellar relationships, potentially threatening the very foundation of the solar-stellar connection. Recent discoveries emerging from NASA’s Kepler space telescope have started to shed light on this perplexing result, suggesting that the Sun’s rotation rate and magnetic field are currently in a transitional phase that occurs in all middle-aged stars. We have recently identified the manifestation of this magnetic transition in the best available data on stellar cycles. These observations suggest that the solar cycle is currently growing longer on stellar evolutionary timescales, and that the global dynamo may shut down entirely sometime in the next 0.8-2.4 Gyr. Future tests of this hypothesis will come from ground-based activity monitoring of Kepler targets that span the magnetic transition, and from asteroseismology with the TESS mission to determine precise masses and ages for bright stars with known cycles.
We analyze Sun-as-a-star observations spanning over solar cycles 22 – 24 from the ground-based network BiSON and solar cycles 23 – 24 collected by the space-based VIRGO and GOLF instruments on board the SoHO satellite. Using simultaneous observations from all three instruments, our analysis suggests that the structural and magnetic changes responsible for modifying the frequencies remained comparable between cycle 23 and cycle 24 but differ from cycle 22. Thus we infer that the magnetic layer of the Sun has become thinner since the beginning of cycle 23 and continues during the current cycle.
New developments in surface flux transport modeling and theory of flux transport dynamos have given rise to the notion that certain large active regions with anomalous properties (location, tilt angle and/or Hale/non-Hale character) may have a major impact on the course of solar activity in subsequent years, impacting also on the amplitude of the following solar cycles. Here we discuss our current understanding of the role of such “rogue” active regions in cycle-to-cycle variations of solar activity.
Generally Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun into interplanetary space. CMEs are most frequently associated with a variety of phenomena occurring in the lower corona before, during and after onset of eruption and generally are visible in coronagraph observation. Stealth CMEs do not obviously exhibit any of the low-coronal signatures (LCS) like solar flares, flows, jets, coronal dimmings or brightenings, filament eruptions or the formation of flare loop arcades. In this study, five stealth CMEs are selected using LASCO/SOHO CME catalogue and associated ICMEs (Interplanetaty CMEs) are identified using data from STEREO, ACE and WIND.
The observed convective flows on the photosphere (e.g., supergranulation, granulation) play a key role in the Babcock-Leighton (BL) process to generate large scale polar fields from sunspots fields. In most surface flux transport (SFT) and BL dynamo models, the dispersal and migration of surface fields is modeled as an effective turbulent diffusion. We present the first kinematic 3D FT/BL model to explicitly incorporate realistic convective flows based on solar observations. The results obtained are generally in good agreement with the observed surface flux evolution and with non-convective models that have a turbulent diffusivity on the order of 3 × 1012 cm2 s−1 (300 km2 s−1). However, we find that the use of a turbulent diffusivity underestimates the dynamo efficiency, producing weaker mean fields and shorter cycle.